Entire Treasury Yield Curve from 3 Months to 30 Years Has Risen since Fed’s Rate Cut. Mortgage Rates too. Bond Market Edgy about Inflation & Supply

by Wolf Richter • Nov 9, 2025 • 22 Comments

The 6-month Treasury yield sees Fed on hold in December. Cutting rates as inflation accelerates is a delicate operation that the bond market isn’t fond of.

Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q3 2025

by Wolf Richter • Nov 7, 2025 • 65 Comments

Banks are mostly off the hook this time; risks were shifted to taxpayers and investors.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in October, -$2.39 Trillion from Peak, to $6.57 Trillion, Standing Repo Facility Back to Zero

by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2025 • 56 Comments

The SRF did its job. Month-end repo market turmoil, exacerbated by effects of the government shutdown, has settled down.

CarMax Enters our Imploded Stocks. Used-Car Dealers Face Reckoning after Jacking Up Prices by 55% in 2 Years

by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2025 • 71 Comments

Consumers have had it with high prices. In addition, these dealers have company specific issues.

Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, and Bankruptcies of our (not so) Drunken Sailors in Q3 2025

by Wolf Richter • Nov 5, 2025 • 76 Comments

The long-defaulted federal student loans were pulled out of the forbearance closet.

Private-Sector Job Growth Lumbers Along after Getting Hammered by the 2024 Benchmark Adjustments in Sep & Aug

by Wolf Richter • Nov 5, 2025 • 44 Comments

ADP Employment Report: +42,000 Jobs in October; wages +4.5% for “Job Stayers” and +6.7% for “Job Changers.”

Repo Market Liquidity Pressures Made Worse by Government Shutdown, but the Fed’s SRF Did its Job and Went Back to Sleep

by Wolf Richter • Nov 4, 2025 • 42 Comments

After the debt ceiling, the shutdown: government checking account (TGA) sucks up $700 billion in four months.

US Government’s Net Cash from Tariffs Jumps to Record $32 Billion in October

by Wolf Richter • Nov 3, 2025 • 76 Comments

The Supreme Court could strike down a portion of the tariffs, but the Administration sees similar tariffs under different Acts. “You should assume they’re here to stay”: Bessent.

Who Takes the Losses on Office CRE? Here’s an Example: the Bankruptcy of Office Properties Income Trust

by Wolf Richter • Nov 3, 2025 • 25 Comments

Shareholders got wiped out, noteholders take losses and get the company, banks appear to be largely unscathed.

Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Fall 2025 Reminder

by Wolf Richter • Nov 2, 2025 • 25 Comments

Your generous support allows WOLF STREET to remain free and open to all, not hidden behind a paywall.

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Hits Record 11.8%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis. Multifamily Delinquencies Soar to 7.1%

by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2025 • 74 Comments

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans on office and multifamily properties got further bludgeoned in October.

What Does the “Federal Funds Rate,” which the Fed Targets, still Measure? Not Much, Mostly a Bizarre Arbitrage Trade

by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2025 • 19 Comments

“The FOMC should modernize the target rate”: Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan.

Banks Borrow Record $50 Billion at Fed’s New SRF amid Hot Repo Rates, ON RRPs Spike to $52 Billion in Opposite Direction

by Wolf Richter • Oct 31, 2025 • 31 Comments

Month-End Liquidity-Palooza: Banks finally used the new & improved SRF the way the Fed has been exhorting them to use it to keep a lid on repo rates.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: Reserve Balances & ON RRPs -$109 Billion in October, -$3.0 Trillion from Peak. What’s Next, According to Powell

by Wolf Richter • Oct 30, 2025 • 31 Comments

Reserves will shrink further when the balance sheet stays flat after QT ends.

The US Dollar Gets More Fuel from Powell’s Doubts about December Rate Cut

by Wolf Richter • Oct 30, 2025 • 21 Comments

But the much-hyped USD “debasement trade” already died weeks ago. The correct debasement trade has been the yen.

Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points with 2 Dissents in Opposite Directions, QT to End, but MBS to Continue Rolling Off to Be Replaced by T-bills

by Wolf Richter • Oct 29, 2025 • 165 Comments

Flying blind and despite rising inflation.

Home Sales Have Not Improved at All Despite the Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Year

by Wolf Richter • Oct 29, 2025 • 40 Comments

Pending home sales and applications for mortgages to purchase a home are near historic lows, and lower mortgage rates have not stimulated demand.

Even as Revenues Grow, Amazon to Lay off 14,000. Why? AI & Corporate Efficiency. Walmart and Others Toot Similar Horn

by Wolf Richter • Oct 28, 2025 • 176 Comments

Revenue growth without employment growth. But Amazon spent $78 billion on capex in 2024 and more in 2025. So companies that get this cash hire more people than Amazon sheds?

The Cities Where Condo Prices Are Now Below their Housing Bubble Peaks 20 Years Ago

by Wolf Richter • Oct 26, 2025 • 53 Comments

Boom-Bust, Boom-Bust?

Food Inflation: The Price Spikes of Beef, Coffee, Eggs, and Dairy

by Wolf Richter • Oct 24, 2025 • 121 Comments

CPI for food at home has surged by 30% since January 2020. Food prices are nothing to be trifled with.