“Carefully,” Dude: Powell at the Press Conference by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 31 Comments Our drunken sailors “hate inflation, hate it,” and are in a foul mood, but are in good shape and keep spending.
In Very “Hawkish Hold,” Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Sees One More Hike in 2023, Only Two Rate Cuts in 2024, to 5.25%. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 160 Comments The shocker was the infamous “dot plot”: Higher for even longer, ending the year 2024 at 5.25%.
Fed’s Cumulative Operating Losses Exceed $100 Billion. Rate of Weekly Losses Begins to Slow as QT Drains RRPs and Reserves by Wolf Richter • Sep 18, 2023 • 41 Comments Not that the losses matter to the Fed, but they matter to the Budget Deficit.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Liabilities: RRPs Plunge, Reserves Rise after Bank Panic, Currency in Circulation Dips after Pandemic Spike, TGA Gets Refilled by Wolf Richter • Sep 16, 2023 • 109 Comments QT’s impact on the Fed’s liabilities, and massive movements between them.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$105 Billion in August, -$864 Billion from Peak, to $8.1 Trillion, Lowest since July 2021 by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2023 • 125 Comments It shed 24% of the Treasury securities it had added during pandemic QE, footprint in ballooning Treasury market shrinks.
Powell Smacks Down Calls to Raise 2% Inflation Target: “2% Is and Will Remain our Inflation Target” by Wolf Richter • Aug 25, 2023 • 218 Comments Fretted about the re-accelerating economy flying above the “below-trend” growth required to get to 2%. “We will keep at it until the job is done.”
Ten-Year Treasury Yield Hits 15-Year High, Market Wades out of Denial, Sees “Higher-for-Longer,” Tsunami of Issuance, QT by Wolf Richter • Aug 16, 2023 • 205 Comments “Higher for longer be damned”: consumers and businesses.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$91 Billion in July, -$759 Billion from Peak, Biggest Drop Ever, to $8.2 Trillion, Lowest since July 2021 by Wolf Richter • Aug 3, 2023 • 108 Comments The Fed has now shed 22.3% of the Treasury securities it bought during pandemic QE.
Without Actually Pronouncing “6%,” Powell Said 6%. Inflation Not Vanquished in June. Even if the Fed Cuts Rates Next Year, QT Could Continue by Wolf Richter • Jul 26, 2023 • 178 Comments Powell managed to pull the rug out from under some widely held assumptions.
Fed Hikes by 25 Basis Points, to 5.5% Top of Range, Highest since 2001, More Rate Hikes on the Table. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Jul 26, 2023 • 155 Comments “In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time…”
