The Spread between 10-Year Treasury Yield & Mortgage Rates Is Historically Wide and Widened Further: Some Thoughts by Wolf Richter • Apr 18, 2025 • 152 Comments Mortgage rates are higher in relationship to the 10-year Treasury yield than they were most of the time over the past 50 years. There are reasons.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$33 Billion in March, -$2.24 Trillion from Peak, to $6.72 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020 by Wolf Richter • Apr 3, 2025 • 117 Comments Fed’s assets-to-GDP ratio dropped to 22.6%, first seen in 2013. Quantitative Tightening has shed 25% of total assets from peak.
Treasury Yield Curve Re-Inverts with Sag in the Middle, as Government Swats Down 10-Year Yield. But Mortgage Rates Don’t Follow all the Way, Spread Widens by Wolf Richter • Mar 22, 2025 • 105 Comments Short-term Treasury yields of 6 months or less stay put above 4%.
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $78 Billion in 2024, “Unrealized Losses” Rose to $1.06 Trillion by Wolf Richter • Mar 21, 2025 • 77 Comments QE has produced years of hangover.
Fed Sticks to Wait-and-See, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, “Dot Plot” Shifts Hawkish amid Rising Inflation & “Uncertainties.” Slows Treasury QT, Maintains MBS QT by Wolf Richter • Mar 19, 2025 • 156 Comments “Dot plot”: 8 of 19 participants see either no cut or just 1 cut in 2025.
Who Holds the Ballooning US Government Debt, even as the Fed and Foreign Holders Unloaded Treasury Securities in Q4? by Wolf Richter • Mar 18, 2025 • 59 Comments An increasingly important question in iffy times. Here are the holders as of Q4, who dumped, who bought.
Why the Fed Considers “Pausing or Slowing” QT “Until the Resolution of the Debt Ceiling Situation” by Wolf Richter • Mar 8, 2025 • 80 Comments The minutes mentioned it. New York Fed’s Perli added some background. The Fed will likely provide details at its March meeting.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$54 Billion in February, -$2.21 Trillion from Peak, to $6.76 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020 by Wolf Richter • Mar 6, 2025 • 83 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 25% of total assets from peak and 46% of pandemic QE.
Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Fed’s Logan on How Assets Might Shift from Longer-Term Securities to Short-Term T-Bills, Repos, and Loans after QT Ends. MBS Entirely Off the List by Wolf Richter • Feb 25, 2025 • 53 Comments This would be like a reverse Operation Twist.
Treasury Yield Curve Flattens as 10-Year Yield Falls, Short-Term Yields Stay Put: Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See in Inflationary Times. But Mortgage Rates Stay Near 7% by Wolf Richter • Feb 22, 2025 • 147 Comments Long-term yields matter to the economy. So how to get the 10-year yield down? Not with rate cuts, obviously. That flopped, had the opposite effect. But with a three-pronged strategy.
