The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2024 • 85 Comments Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in August, -$1.85 Trillion from Peak, to $7.11 Trillion, back to June 2020, Another QT Milestone by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2024 • 82 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed so far 38% of the assets that pandemic QE had added.
The Rate Cuts Powell Dangled in Front of Markets May Slam into Inflationary Fiscal & Economic Policies of Whoever Is in the White House Next Year by Wolf Richter • Aug 24, 2024 • 196 Comments For the Treasury market, Powell’s speech was a nothingburger. A Sep rate cut has been priced in since the Aug 2 jobs report.
Fed’s ON RRPs Plunge to $292 Billion, -$2 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Near-Zero, and Nothing Has Blown Up Yet by Wolf Richter • Aug 6, 2024 • 62 Comments QT keeps draining liquidity from the financial markets.
How Powell Kept a September Rate Cut up in the Air: It Will All Depend on the Data till Then by Wolf Richter • Jul 31, 2024 • 93 Comments “We’re balancing the risk of going too soon versus too late. There’s no guarantee in this. It’s a very difficult judgment call.”
Fed Statement Silent about September Rate Cut, Still Waiting for “Greater Confidence” about Inflation, Keeps Rates Unchanged by Wolf Richter • Jul 31, 2024 • 115 Comments Powell has some explaining to do. Only slight concessions about strength of the labor market and improvements in inflation.
What the Short-Term Treasury Market Says about Rate Cuts, and How Repeatedly Wrong it Was so Far by Wolf Richter • Jul 13, 2024 • 128 Comments Inflation has the upper hand. The market (Goldman Sachs and me included) vastly underestimated the Fed. Someday the market might get it right.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$34 Billion in June, -$1.74 Trillion from Peak, to $7.22 Trillion, Lowest since November 2020 by Wolf Richter • Jul 5, 2024 • 93 Comments Quantitative Tightening so far has removed 41% of Treasury securities and 29% of MBS that pandemic QE had added.
Who Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt of $34.7 Trillion? by Wolf Richter • Jun 23, 2024 • 169 Comments All of these Treasury securities have been sold. So here are the holders.
Fed Liabilities under QT Drop $1.71 Trillion, to $7.22 Trillion: Reserves, ON RRPs, Currency, TGA, Foreign Official RRPs by Wolf Richter • Jun 13, 2024 • 90 Comments The liquidity drain of Quantitative Tightening has come entirely from ON RRPs. Reserves have lots of liquidity left to drain.
