What If There’s No Landing at all, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation? by Wolf Richter • Oct 13, 2024 • 172 Comments That scenario is re-emerging as a real possibility in recent economic data.
Bond Market Smells a Rat: On Eve of CPI Inflation Data, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.08%, +43 bps since Monster Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 9, 2024 • 135 Comments Fed is seen as deprioritizing inflation fight, while a tsunami of supply heads for markets.
Mortgage Rates Explode, 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Monster Rate-Cut Hopes Doused, Inflation Fears Resurface: Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2024 • 138 Comments The yield curve moved further toward un-inversion, but not the way it was hoped.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in Sept., -$1.92 Trillion from Peak, to $7.05 Trillion, Back to May 2020. To Drop Below $7 Trillion in 1-2 Months by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2024 • 72 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 40% of the assets added during pandemic QE.
The Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut: Why Have Longer-Term Yields Risen since the Rate Cut? Already Priced in? Inflation Concerns as Policy Loosens in a Decent Economy? by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2024 • 156 Comments Mortgage rates also ticked up.
Fed Cuts by 50 Basis Points, to 5.0% Top of Range, Sees Additional 50 Basis Points in 2024, QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Sep 18, 2024 • 378 Comments But the longer-run rate for its target rose to 2.9%, continuing the series of increases, slowly but steadily rising from the ashes of the ZIRP era.
The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2024 • 85 Comments Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in August, -$1.85 Trillion from Peak, to $7.11 Trillion, back to June 2020, Another QT Milestone by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2024 • 82 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed so far 38% of the assets that pandemic QE had added.
The Rate Cuts Powell Dangled in Front of Markets May Slam into Inflationary Fiscal & Economic Policies of Whoever Is in the White House Next Year by Wolf Richter • Aug 24, 2024 • 196 Comments For the Treasury market, Powell’s speech was a nothingburger. A Sep rate cut has been priced in since the Aug 2 jobs report.
Fed’s ON RRPs Plunge to $292 Billion, -$2 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Near-Zero, and Nothing Has Blown Up Yet by Wolf Richter • Aug 6, 2024 • 62 Comments QT keeps draining liquidity from the financial markets.
