Treasury Market’s Inflation Expectations Become “Unanchored” by Wolf Richter • Feb 11, 2025 • 132 Comments Why the Fed vigorously backpedaled on further rate cuts and pivoted to wait-and-see: Long-term interest rates matter.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$42 Billion in January, -$2.15 Trillion from Peak, to $6.81 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020. Bye-Bye BTFP by Wolf Richter • Feb 6, 2025 • 64 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 45% of Pandemic-QE. Bank liquidity facilities at or near zero.
The Fed’s QT Could Go on for a Lot Longer: The Tools Are in Place, incl. the Revived Standing Repo Facility by Wolf Richter • Feb 6, 2025 • 41 Comments QT has drained ON RRPs to their normal level of near-zero, while QT hasn’t even touched reserve balances yet.
Trump Agrees with Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See after the Fed Bows to Trump on Everything Else to Keep Monetary Policy Independent by Wolf Richter • Feb 3, 2025 • 161 Comments We’ll see how long Trump’s side of this mutual understanding lasts.
Powell: In “No Hurry” to Cut, Need to See “Further Progress” on Inflation, No Timeline to End QT (Not Even Close) by Wolf Richter • Jan 29, 2025 • 94 Comments “Companies figured out they do like to raise prices. But we also hear a lot from companies these days that consumers have really had it with price increases.”
Fed Pivots to Wait-and-See, Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Restarts Inflation Worries. QT Continues. by Wolf Richter • Jan 29, 2025 • 97 Comments And labor market conditions are no longer easing. The reasons for rate cuts — dropping inflation, weakening labor market — vanished. Pretty hawkish.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$43 Billion in December, -$2.11 Trillion from Peak, to $6.85 Trillion. Bank-Panic BTFP Nearly Gone by Wolf Richter • Jan 2, 2025 • 79 Comments Quantitative Tightening shed 44% of Pandemic-QE assets. Fed’s share of the ballooning US national debt dropped to the lowest since 2019.
10-Year Treasury Yield Rose 100 Basis Points since September as the Fed Cut 100 Basis Points. Why the Historic Divergence? by Wolf Richter • Dec 27, 2024 • 222 Comments Treasury Yield Curve Steepens. Bond Market a Wee Bit Nervous?
Who Bought and Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt, even as the Fed is Unloading its Treasury Securities? by Wolf Richter • Dec 24, 2024 • 116 Comments A hot question for an iffy situation. So here are the holders as of Q3.
Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7% by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 120 Comments Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.