Fed Sticks to Wait-and-See, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, “Dot Plot” Shifts Hawkish amid Rising Inflation & “Uncertainties.” Slows Treasury QT, Maintains MBS QT by Wolf Richter • Mar 19, 2025 • 156 Comments “Dot plot”: 8 of 19 participants see either no cut or just 1 cut in 2025.
Who Holds the Ballooning US Government Debt, even as the Fed and Foreign Holders Unloaded Treasury Securities in Q4? by Wolf Richter • Mar 18, 2025 • 59 Comments An increasingly important question in iffy times. Here are the holders as of Q4, who dumped, who bought.
Why the Fed Considers “Pausing or Slowing” QT “Until the Resolution of the Debt Ceiling Situation” by Wolf Richter • Mar 8, 2025 • 80 Comments The minutes mentioned it. New York Fed’s Perli added some background. The Fed will likely provide details at its March meeting.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$54 Billion in February, -$2.21 Trillion from Peak, to $6.76 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020 by Wolf Richter • Mar 6, 2025 • 83 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 25% of total assets from peak and 46% of pandemic QE.
Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Fed’s Logan on How Assets Might Shift from Longer-Term Securities to Short-Term T-Bills, Repos, and Loans after QT Ends. MBS Entirely Off the List by Wolf Richter • Feb 25, 2025 • 53 Comments This would be like a reverse Operation Twist.
Treasury Yield Curve Flattens as 10-Year Yield Falls, Short-Term Yields Stay Put: Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See in Inflationary Times. But Mortgage Rates Stay Near 7% by Wolf Richter • Feb 22, 2025 • 147 Comments Long-term yields matter to the economy. So how to get the 10-year yield down? Not with rate cuts, obviously. That flopped, had the opposite effect. But with a three-pronged strategy.
Treasury Market’s Inflation Expectations Become “Unanchored” by Wolf Richter • Feb 11, 2025 • 134 Comments Why the Fed vigorously backpedaled on further rate cuts and pivoted to wait-and-see: Long-term interest rates matter.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$42 Billion in January, -$2.15 Trillion from Peak, to $6.81 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020. Bye-Bye BTFP by Wolf Richter • Feb 6, 2025 • 64 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 45% of Pandemic-QE. Bank liquidity facilities at or near zero.
The Fed’s QT Could Go on for a Lot Longer: The Tools Are in Place, incl. the Revived Standing Repo Facility by Wolf Richter • Feb 6, 2025 • 40 Comments QT has drained ON RRPs to their normal level of near-zero, while QT hasn’t even touched reserve balances yet.
Trump Agrees with Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See after the Fed Bows to Trump on Everything Else to Keep Monetary Policy Independent by Wolf Richter • Feb 3, 2025 • 161 Comments We’ll see how long Trump’s side of this mutual understanding lasts.
