Bond Market Smells a Rat: On Eve of CPI Inflation Data, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.08%, +43 bps since Monster Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 9, 2024 • 135 Comments Fed is seen as deprioritizing inflation fight, while a tsunami of supply heads for markets.
Mortgage Rates Explode, 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Monster Rate-Cut Hopes Doused, Inflation Fears Resurface: Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2024 • 138 Comments The yield curve moved further toward un-inversion, but not the way it was hoped.
The Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut: Why Have Longer-Term Yields Risen since the Rate Cut? Already Priced in? Inflation Concerns as Policy Loosens in a Decent Economy? by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2024 • 156 Comments Mortgage rates also ticked up.
The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2024 • 85 Comments Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care.
Treasury Department Aggressively Pushes Down Long-Term Interest Rates via Shift to T-bill Issuance and Bond Buybacks by Wolf Richter • Aug 28, 2024 • 168 Comments But buybacks occur at huge losses for investors. Today it bought back a 1.25% 20-year bond for 66 cents on the dollar.
CRE Gets Strangled, Corporate Bankruptcies Highest since 2010, but Junk Bonds & Broad Financial Conditions in La-La-Land by Wolf Richter • Jul 22, 2024 • 89 Comments The big divergence.
There’s a Boom in Distressed Debt Exchanges to Deal with Leveraged-Loan Defaults by Wolf Richter • May 13, 2024 • 33 Comments An alternative to a restructuring in bankruptcy court.
Junk-Bond Issuance Nearly Doubles YTD, amid Feverish Demand in La-la-Land and Ultra-Loose Financial Conditions by Wolf Richter • May 10, 2024 • 104 Comments Companies, seeing Higher-for-Longer, take advantage of it to lock in historically narrow spreads and still low yields.
Money Market Funds, T-Bills, Large CDs, Small CDs: Americans Learn to Arbitrage the Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates by Wolf Richter • Apr 27, 2024 • 137 Comments There’s no need to still pay a “loyalty tax” to the banks.
Treasury Yields Spike, 3-Year by 25 Basis Points. Mortgage Rates Hit 7.34%. Services Inflation Smacks Down Rate-Cut Mania by Wolf Richter • Apr 10, 2024 • 185 Comments A Bloodbath was had by all?
