Longer-term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2024 • 59 Comments

Going to further crush demand for existing homes. Bondholders feel the pain.

Inventory of Existing Homes in Texas Balloons to Highest in Many Years, Prices Drift Lower but Are Still Way Too High

by Wolf Richter • Nov 5, 2024 • 65 Comments

Inventories are piling up because prices are too high. But they’re coming down.

Social Security Update Fiscal 2024: Trust Fund, Income, Outgo, and Deficit

by Wolf Richter • Nov 4, 2024 • 108 Comments

Contributions rose by 5.6%, but benefit payments rose by 8.5%. The Trust Fund paid for the deficit, so its balance declined further, to $2.6 trillion.

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after the Financial Crisis

by Wolf Richter • Nov 4, 2024 • 98 Comments

“Survive till 2025” is the motto in CRE now, but that might not work either.

Buffett T-bills & Chills: Piled up T-bills, Ditched Stocks, Bonds, and Share Buybacks in Q3

by Wolf Richter • Nov 2, 2024 • 100 Comments

Oracle of Omaha will sit on lots of dry powder when the S hits the fan and there will finally be some stocks worth buying.

Fed’s ON RRPs Plunge to $155 Billion as QT Drains Liquidity, Nothing Blown Up Yet. SOFR & TGCR Spreads Begin to Move

by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2024 • 61 Comments

“Such temporary rate pressures can be price signals” that help markets redistribute liquidity to where it’s needed most: Fed’s Logan.

Hurricanes Helene & Milton and the Boeing Strike Make Mess of Jobs Report. And Wages Surge

by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2024 • 30 Comments

Upon the data’s implications for inflation, the bond market puckered its lips: 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.35%, highest since early July.

Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Fall 2024 Reminder

by Wolf Richter • Oct 31, 2024 • 32 Comments

Thanks to your generous support, WOLF STREET is free and open to all, and not behind a paywall.

Super Micro Computer Becomes the First AI-Mania Highflyer in our Imploded Stocks

by Wolf Richter • Oct 31, 2024 • 57 Comments

-42% in two days, -76% from peak-AI-mania in March 2024. There is some dark humor in those kinds of charts.

Inflation Doesn’t Want to Cooperate: PCE Price Indices for Core, Core Services, and Durable Goods Worsen Further MoM

by Wolf Richter • Oct 31, 2024 • 60 Comments

The YoY “core” PCE price index, the Fed’s yardstick for its 2% target, rose 2.65%, with no progress over the past 5 months. But energy prices plunged.

Our Drunken Sailors Splurge in Q3, Phenomenally so on Durable Goods, Drive GDP Growth. But Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsens

by Wolf Richter • Oct 30, 2024 • 120 Comments

Jump in government spending also boosted GDP growth. But surging Imports, falling residential fixed investments, and inventories dragged.

Hiring Jumps for 3rd Month, Workers Cling to Jobs, Layoffs & Discharges Jump but Remain Low, Job Openings Fall

by Wolf Richter • Oct 29, 2024 • 57 Comments

Hurricanes in September & October and the Boeing strike will mess with labor market data for a few months; the Fed won’t get clear answers.

Boeing Launches $22 Billion Share Offering to Get Breathing Room, Dodge Junk Credit Rating, after Having Wasted $64 Billion on Share Buybacks

by Wolf Richter • Oct 28, 2024 • 130 Comments

It will dilute the bejesus out of already beaten-up stockholders. Share buyback karma.

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inversion Hits Milestone on Inflation Fears, Tsunami of Supply, QT. Mortgage Rates Near 7%

by Wolf Richter • Oct 26, 2024 • 139 Comments

The 10-year yield surged by 60 basis points in five weeks but may run out of steam by about right now.

Treasury Buybacks: Update on the Bond Market Bloodletting

by Wolf Richter • Oct 25, 2024 • 62 Comments

Among the jewels: Treasury Dept. paid 88 cents on the dollar to buy back 10-year Treasury notes sold at auction Aug. 2020 at a record-low yield of 0.677%.

Inventory of New Spec Houses Spikes to Highest since 2009, Sales Grow as Builders Pile on Incentives and Trim Prices

by Wolf Richter • Oct 24, 2024 • 126 Comments

Lennar’s incentives jumped to $48,100 per house, prices -5.8%. Builders take share from existing houses where demand wilted because prices are too high

Demand Destruction for Existing Homes: Sales in 2024 to Plunge Below 4 Million Homes, Lowest since 1995, as Supply Spikes

by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2024 • 171 Comments

Because prices are way too high. Buyers’ Strike deepened even with mortgage rates at 2-year lows at the time. But rates have spiked since then.

The Future of QT, Balance Sheet Composition, and Liquidity: Fed’s Lorie Logan

by Wolf Richter • Oct 22, 2024 • 101 Comments

QT continues. Liquidity “more than ample.” Money market spreads widening briefly is OK. Selling MBS, shifting Treasuries to T-bills on the table.

Mortgage Rates Explode to 6.82%, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.20%, +55 Basis Points since Monster Rate Cut

by Wolf Richter • Oct 21, 2024 • 175 Comments

How the yield curve is un-inverting shocks real-estate folks who’d promised rate cuts would push down mortgage rates even further.

Which Foreign Countries Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: An Increasingly Crucial Question. Many Piled it up. Cleanest Dirty Shirt?

by Wolf Richter • Oct 19, 2024 • 114 Comments

Foreign investors had a big appetite all year for Treasury securities. But China lost interest, Japan struggled with the yen.