Landing Cancelled? Retail Sales Jump, Prior Months Revised Up, Boost Atlanta Fed GDPNow to +3.4% Inflation-Adjusted GDP Growth by Wolf Richter • Oct 17, 2024 • 11 Comments This demand growth is adding to renewed inflation concerns. The huge waves of immigrants in 2022-2024 are part of this demand growth.
Home-Purchase Demand Destruction Accelerates, Prices Too High, Buyers’ Strike Deepens: Sales of Existing Homes Head for Worst Year since 1995 by Wolf Richter • Oct 16, 2024 • 136 Comments Too-high prices destroy demand. Everyone knows that. Lower prices would bring out demand.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Sept Update: Prices Drop in 26 of 28 Big Metros, even San Diego, Los Angeles by Wolf Richter • Oct 15, 2024 • 115 Comments 1 New High. 19 metros below 2022 peaks: Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix, Denver, Salt Lake City, Portland, Seattle, Dallas, Honolulu, Nashville…
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, September: Biggest Drops in Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, even Calgary Gives, amid Surge of New Listings. Condos Get Hit Hard by Wolf Richter • Oct 15, 2024 • 38 Comments Sellers come out of the woodwork after the rate cuts, buyers not so much. But Montreal, Edmonton, and Winnipeg play with all-time highs.
Venture Capital Slammed by Fed Tightening: Exits Blocked after IPOs & SPACs Collapsed, Distributions at Financial Crisis Lows by Wolf Richter • Oct 14, 2024 • 74 Comments Rise of Zombie VCs that stick around collecting fees as their startups run out of cash and die. The AI boom is the exception.
What If There’s No Landing at all, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation? by Wolf Richter • Oct 13, 2024 • 187 Comments That scenario is re-emerging as a real possibility in recent economic data.
After Large Up-Revisions, “Core” & “Core Services” PPI Inflation Not Benign at All. Whole Scenario Changed for the Worse by Wolf Richter • Oct 11, 2024 • 127 Comments Six-month core PPI: +3.4%. Six-month services PPI: +3.7%. Year-over-year, both also accelerated further. But energy prices plunged.
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: “Core CPI” Accelerates for 3rd Month on Sharp Flip of Used Vehicle Prices, Sticky Services Inflation. Gasoline Plunged by Wolf Richter • Oct 10, 2024 • 185 Comments Surging homeowner insurance and other homeowner costs fuel OER CPI, which is now hotter than rent CPI.
Bond Market Smells a Rat: On Eve of CPI Inflation Data, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.08%, +43 bps since Monster Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 9, 2024 • 135 Comments Fed is seen as deprioritizing inflation fight, while a tsunami of supply heads for markets.
Florida Housing Market Buckles, Listing Prices Sag to 30-Month Low but Are Still Way Too High, Inventory Piles Up, Institutional Investors Turn into Net Sellers by Wolf Richter • Oct 8, 2024 • 187 Comments He who panics first, panics best. Mr. Holmes, with no offers in 9 months, missed that train and is chasing prices lower.
People Are Now on Buyers’ Strike Because Home Prices Are too High: Fannie Mae by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2024 • 105 Comments Optimism about dropping mortgage rates drove up the Home Purchase Sentiment Index, but the poll occurred just before mortgage rates exploded.
More Evidence this May Be the End of the Historic Plunge of Used Vehicle Prices that Had Pushed Down CPI by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2024 • 44 Comments Amid tight supply and strong demand.
Mortgage Rates Explode, 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Monster Rate-Cut Hopes Doused, Inflation Fears Resurface: Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2024 • 138 Comments The yield curve moved further toward un-inversion, but not the way it was hoped.
OK, Forget it, False Alarm, Labor Market Is Fine, Bad Stuff Last Month Was Revised Away, Wages Jumped. No More Rate Cuts Needed? by Wolf Richter • Oct 4, 2024 • 232 Comments Pandemic distortions and millions of migrants suddenly entering the labor market, who are hard to track, have wreaked havoc on data accuracy.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in Sept., -$1.92 Trillion from Peak, to $7.05 Trillion, Back to May 2020. To Drop Below $7 Trillion in 1-2 Months by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2024 • 72 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 40% of the assets added during pandemic QE.
Here Come the Vacant Homes: New Listings Jump when they Normally Drop in September, Active Listings Pile up, Listing Prices Drop below 2 Years Ago. Buyers on Strike, Prices too High by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2024 • 84 Comments Sellers coming out of the closet with their vacant homes. Active listings exploded the most in San Diego (+77%).
Ugly Q3 for ICE Vehicles. Total Q3 Sales Dropped Year-over-Year. But EV Sales Jumped, even at GM & Ford by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2024 • 56 Comments Prices too high, automakers too slow cutting them from the pandemic spike. Stellantis sales plunged 20%, a fiasco.
Tesla’s Global Deliveries Rise, Best Q3 Ever, But Not Enough to Fix the Shattered High-Growth Story by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2024 • 89 Comments Cybertruck production ramping up, starting to show up in the numbers (a little). Long way to go.
Epic Office Glut Hits Records in San Francisco, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle, Washington DC. Dallas Availability Rate Dips to 30%, Houston rises to 29% by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2024 • 44 Comments The “war for space” before the pandemic unravels into biggest office glut ever.
Balance of Power Changed, Employers Re-exert Control, but also Cling to their Workers by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2024 • 88 Comments Fewer workers quit (rattled by layoff headlines?), so fewer vacant slots to fill and less hiring. But actual layoffs are at historic lows.