ECB’s Own Measure of Wage Increases Blows Fuse, Sets Off Alarms about Stubbornly Hot Services Inflation

by Wolf Richter • Nov 20, 2024 • 26 Comments

Meanwhile, the ECB’s QT marches on, balance sheet has shed €2.45 trillion since the peak, or 59% of its pandemic QE.

Credit Card Delinquency Rates, Balances, Burden, and Available Credit in Q3 2024

by Wolf Richter • Nov 19, 2024 • 71 Comments

Americans far from “tapped out.” Credit card delinquency rate dips to 3.2% (Fed), “prime” delinquency rate 0.99% (Fitch), “subprime” gets over free-money hangover.

US Treasury Debt Held by Foreign Investors: Ravenous Appetite for Juicy Yields, Juicy Compared to their Stuff at Home

by Wolf Richter • Nov 18, 2024 • 77 Comments

Will foreign investors buy the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt? Increasingly crucial question. But yield solves demand problems.

American Risk Services is Looking for a Data Scientist. WOLF STREET Readers with this Background Take a Look

by Mike Ledney, American Risk Services. • Nov 18, 2024

If you, or someone you know, work in high level business analytics, understand basic data science, predictive modeling, forecasting, neural nets, etc., please read on, especially if you have automotive experience.

Auto-Loan Balances, Burden, Subprime & Prime Delinquency Rates, and Subprime Dealer America’s Car-Mart in Q3 2024

by Wolf Richter • Nov 16, 2024 • 62 Comments

Subprime is always in trouble, and now, after the reckless-subprime lending era, more so. Prime is in pristine shape. Car-Mart joins our Imploded Stocks.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Oct. 2024: Single-Family Prices Drop Most in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa. Condo Prices Hit 3-Year Low

by Wolf Richter • Nov 15, 2024 • 66 Comments

Toronto single-family prices -19% from peak, back to Oct. 2021. In Montreal, Quebec City, Edmonton, and Winnipeg, prices near all-time highs.

Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, the Burden of Housing Debt, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q3 2024

by Wolf Richter • Nov 14, 2024 • 76 Comments

HELOC balances surged, mortgages not so much, and incomes grew a lot faster than housing debt.

After More Up-Revisions, “Core” PPI & “Core Services” PPI Inflation Get Much Worse, Accelerating All Year

by Wolf Richter • Nov 14, 2024 • 76 Comments

But goods prices are relatively tame. Energy prices plunge.

Household Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q3 2024

by Wolf Richter • Nov 13, 2024 • 101 Comments

As a growing population financed more costly purchases, total debt rose. But income rose even faster in recent quarters.

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Overall CPI Accelerates for 4th Month, “Core” CPI for 3rd Month on Re-spiking Used Vehicle Prices & Rising Homeowner Costs

by Wolf Richter • Nov 13, 2024 • 68 Comments

Year-over-year, CPI and “core” CPI are starting to show the effects of the month-to-month increases since the “inflation is vanquished” summer.

American Risk Services is Looking for a Data Scientist. WOLF STREET Readers with this Background Take a Look

by Wolf Richter • Nov 12, 2024 • 43 Comments

If you, or someone you know, live in that world beyond spreadsheets, work in high level business analytics, understand basic data science, predictive modeling, forecasting, neural nets, etc., please read on.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, October Update: Prices Drop in 29 of 30 Big Metros, even San Diego & Los Angeles. Only New York City Ekes Out New High

by Wolf Richter • Nov 12, 2024 • 119 Comments

19 are below their 2022 peaks: Austin -20%, San Francisco -10%, Phoenix -8%, San Antonio -7%, Denver -7%, Sacramento -6%, Salt Lake City -6%, Portland -5%, Dallas -5%, Seattle -5%, Honolulu -4%…

Our F-150 XLT & Camry LE Price Index, Going Back to 1990, Is Updated with 2025 Model-Year Prices. There Were Some Twists

by Wolf Richter • Nov 11, 2024 • 132 Comments

Ford cuts truck prices after grotesque increases in prior years. Toyota axes the base Camry; new base Camry is a more expensive hybrid.

We May Not Get Our Recession until the AI Spending Bubble Implodes

by Wolf Richter • Nov 10, 2024 • 186 Comments

But this stuff takes years. Until then, the massive spending from corporate balance sheets and cash flows that circulates & circulates is very stimulative.

With Home Prices Way Too High, More People Profit from Arbitraging Vast Cost Difference between Renting and Buying

by Wolf Richter • Nov 8, 2024 • 207 Comments

Sky-high prices, today’s mortgage rates, property taxes on those sky-high prices, and spiking homeowners’ insurance costs create a peculiar situation that more and more people are taking advantage of.

Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops Below $7 Trillion. QT: -$53 Billion in Oct., -$1.97 Trillion from Peak, to $6.99 Trillion, Back to May 2020

by Wolf Richter • Nov 7, 2024 • 83 Comments

Quantitative Tightening has shed 41% of the assets that the Fed had added during pandemic QE.

Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points, to 4.75% Top of Range, as Telegraphed to Backpedal from Monster Cut. QT Continues

by Wolf Richter • Nov 7, 2024 • 108 Comments

“The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”

THANK YOU 💖 for Your Awesome Support of WOLF STREET!!! And if You Missed it, a Reminder: Please Donate

by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2024 • 16 Comments

Your support is what keeps Wolf Street open to all, not hidden behind a paywall, to reach the largest possible audience.

Longer-term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2024 • 205 Comments

Going to further crush demand for existing homes. Bondholders feel the pain.

Inventory of Existing Homes in Texas Balloons to Highest in Many Years, Prices Drift Lower but Are Still Way Too High

by Wolf Richter • Nov 5, 2024 • 73 Comments

Inventories are piling up because prices are too high. But they’re coming down.

Social Security Update Fiscal 2024: Trust Fund, Income, Outgo, and Deficit

by Wolf Richter • Nov 4, 2024 • 114 Comments

Contributions rose by 5.6%, but benefit payments rose by 8.5%. The Trust Fund paid for the deficit, so its balance declined further, to $2.6 trillion.