How the Debt Ceiling Is Now Pouring Liquidity into Financial Markets, only to Suck it Back Out Very Fast Later this Year

by Wolf Richter • May 11, 2025 • 5 Comments

Last time, $840 billion got sucked out in 5 months, all from excess cash in ON RRPs. But after $2.26 trillion of QT, ON RRPs are nearly gone.

10-year Treasury Yield Back at 4.39%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage-Rate Spread Remains Historically Wide

by Wolf Richter • May 9, 2025 • 63 Comments

Despite the rumors during bond turmoil, foreigners kept buying Treasuries and the “basis trade” didn’t blow, but the “swap spread trade” made a mess.

Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2025 Reminder

by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 26 Comments

Your generous support has kept WOLF STREET free and open to all, and not behind a paywall. Thank you!!

Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again

by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 100 Comments

Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.

I’ve Been Screaming about Rising Used-Vehicle Prices since Aug 2024 (and No One Paid Attention) but Suddenly It’s the Tariffs?

by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 75 Comments

The issue has been tight used-vehicle inventory due to reduced influx of 2021/2022 model years after the new-vehicle shortages at the time.

Fully in Wait-and-See Mode, Fed Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Higher Uncertainty, Higher Inflation, and Higher Unemployment

by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 98 Comments

QT Continues at the slower pace announced in March.

After CRE Office Market Repriced at 70% Off in San Francisco, Sales Revive. Leasing Jumps amid 35% Vacancy Rates and 21% Drop in Asking Rents

by Wolf Richter • May 6, 2025 • 40 Comments

If left alone, markets are good at sorting out a tough situation like this. The housing market could learn a lesson.

NY Fed’s “Multivariate Core Trend” Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Worst in Over a Year, Predicts Acceleration of PCE Price Index

by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2025 • 93 Comments

Driven largely by non-housing services. Just in time for the Fed meeting.

California Inventory of Homes for Sale Suddenly Piles Up: +51% Year-over-Year, to Highest April in Years

by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2025 • 85 Comments

Active listings in San Diego +70% yoy, Los Angeles +50%, San Jose & Silicon Valley +67%; San Francisco metro +43% (highest April since at least 2016)

Unsold Inventory of Homes for Sale in Florida Pile up Further in April. Some Metros Start Seeing Gluts, Miami Still Lags a Little

by Wolf Richter • May 3, 2025 • 94 Comments

Active Listings compared to April 2019: Jacksonville +23%, North Port-Sarasota +29%, Tampa +31%, Orlando +40%, Cape Coral-Fort Myers +42%, Lakeland-Winter Haven +71%.

Tariffs Start Washing into the Government Checking Account

by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2025 • 164 Comments

The cashflow of Customs and Excise Taxes has nearly doubled in two months.

Labor Market Is Just Fine Despite Dropping Federal Government Jobs, Media-Driven Moaning and Groaning, and Tariff Chaos

by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2025 • 81 Comments

The millions of immigrants that arrived in 2021-2024 finally get picked up in the data for labor force and total employment, which continued to spike.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in April, -$2.26 Trillion from Peak, to $6.71 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020

by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2025 • 33 Comments

Quantitative Tightening has shed 25.2% of total assets. The Assets-to-GDP ratio declined to 22.4%, first seen in 2013.

Now the Multifamily CMBS Delinquency Rate Begins to Spike, while Office Delinquencies Re-Spike to Financial Crisis Peak

by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2025 • 49 Comments

The CRE meltdown just doesn’t let up.

Inflation Is in the Revisions? What Stands Out Once Again in the PCE Price Index? Sharp Up-Revisions of Prior Month’s Inflation

by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2025 • 66 Comments

Up-revisions pushed the 12-month core PCE price index for February to +3.0%, and the 6-month to +3.4%, worst since July 2023. But March was benign?

GDP Whacked by Massive Spike in Imports on Frontrunning of Tariffs. Consumer Spending Grew, Business Investment Soared

by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2025 • 81 Comments

“Final sales to private domestic purchasers” jumped by 3.0%, on strength in the private economy of businesses and consumers.

Despite All Moaning and Groaning: Layoffs & Discharges Plunge, Hires and Voluntary Quits Rise, Driven by Private Sector Strength

by Wolf Richter • Apr 29, 2025 • 123 Comments

The labor market started regaining momentum in the fall of 2024, and it continued through March.

How Gold Imports Blew up Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The Old Model is Dead, Long Live the “New GDPNow Model” Starting Apr 30

by Wolf Richter • Apr 28, 2025 • 66 Comments

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow could be all over the place, but nothing compares to how gold imports blew it up this time.

10-Year Treasury Yield Re-Dips Below EFFR, Yield Curve Sags Deeply in the Middle, Dollar Bounces Back into 3-Year Range

by Wolf Richter • Apr 26, 2025 • 96 Comments

Turns out, demand from foreigners for Treasury securities at the auctions was just fine.

Office Vacancy Rate in the US Worsens to Record 22.6% in Q1 amid Federal Government Lease Terminations

by Wolf Richter • Apr 25, 2025 • 41 Comments

But it may take a while before these federal lease terminations work their way into CRE delinquency rates.