The Spread between 10-Year Treasury Yield & Mortgage Rates Is Historically Wide and Widened Further: Some Thoughts

by Wolf Richter • Apr 18, 2025 • 12 Comments

Mortgage rates are higher in relationship to the 10-year Treasury yield than they were most of the time over the past 50 years. There are reasons.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 of the Largest Housing Markets

by Wolf Richter • Apr 17, 2025 • 110 Comments

Metros with YoY price drops double to 14: Austin, Tampa, San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Orlando, Atlanta, Miami, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Birmingham, Charlotte. YoY gains narrow sharply in San Diego, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Columbus… 20 below 2022 peaks.

Oh Elon! Tesla Crushed Further in California in Q1, Non-Tesla EV Sales Soar. Cybertruck Joining Failed Models of Automotive History?

by Wolf Richter • Apr 17, 2025 • 102 Comments

Non-Tesla EV sales +36% YoY. Tesla sales plunge to lowest since Q3 2022. Cybertruck sales fall for 2nd quarter in a row.

The Credential Cascade: How One Leaked Password Threatens Your Entire Financial Portfolio

by Simon Davis, RoboForm Password Manager, a Wolf Street sponsor • Mar 22, 2025

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Foreign Investors Massively Bought US Treasury Securities in February: China, Japan, Canada, Euro Area, UK, Financial Centers, Taiwan, India, even Brazil

by Wolf Richter • Apr 16, 2025 • 78 Comments

Biggest increase since June 2021. And they mostly bought long-term Treasury debt. No major holder dumped.

Drunken Sailors Back in Splurge Mode, Retail Sales Surge. Even at Restaurants & Bars not Part of Frontrunning Tariffs

by Wolf Richter • Apr 16, 2025 • 62 Comments

The recession is going to have to get back in line and wait.

Nvidia Makes Mess Afterhours, Discloses $5.5 Billion in Charges due to US Export Restrictions on its H20 Chip for China

by Wolf Richter • Apr 15, 2025 • 112 Comments

Stock down 6.5%, Nasdaq futures down 1.5%.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, March 2025: Sales Plunge, Supply Surges, Overall Prices Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Driven by Toronto

by Wolf Richter • Apr 15, 2025 • 60 Comments

But in some metros, prices continued to spike. By Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Halifax, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Quebec City.

Our Drunken Sailors Are Back: Sales of Used Vehicles Surge in March, same as New Vehicles. Retail Sales Might Look Good

by Wolf Richter • Apr 14, 2025 • 76 Comments

Despite their foul mood, consumers are splurging on vehicles and may also be splurging on other products.

10-Year Treasury Yield Snaps Back to February’s 4.5%, Yield Curve Re-Un-Inverts, Mortgage Rates Back at 7%

by Wolf Richter • Apr 12, 2025 • 146 Comments

The aggressive Bash-Down by the White House of long-term Treasury yields and the dollar since January worked. Until it didn’t.

OMG the Dollar Is Collapsing, or Whatever

by Wolf Richter • Apr 11, 2025 • 154 Comments

Despite the “Dollar’s Collapse,” the USD remains in its 3-year range and a lot higher than it was before.

PPI Pushed into Negative by Dropping Prices of Many Goods and Services

by Wolf Richter • Apr 11, 2025 • 85 Comments

The Producer Price Index is where tariffs will show up first, whether or not companies can pass on those cost increases.

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Surging Prices of Food, Housing, Medical Care Meet Plunging Prices of Gasoline & Travel Services

by Wolf Richter • Apr 10, 2025 • 173 Comments

Worst food inflation since 2022. Worst housing inflation in months. But plunging prices for lodging, rental cars, and airfares are interesting.

Trump Speaks and Stocks Spike, after Trump Spoke and Stocks Plunged (Makes You Wonder, Why even Own Stocks?)

by Wolf Richter • Apr 9, 2025 • 271 Comments

The huge spike, following the selloff, evokes further parallels with the Dotcom Bust and Financial Crisis crash, in the middle of which similar spikes occurred.

Shadow Inventory of Vacant Homes Suddenly Piles on the Market in Texas. New Listings, Active Listings Spike to Highest for March in Many Years

by Wolf Richter • Apr 9, 2025 • 60 Comments

Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio: Even as sales plunge, vacant homes pile on the market that were held off the market during Covid.

But this Kind of Dynamic Sprinkles Additional Cold Water on the Idea of a Looming Recession

by Wolf Richter • Apr 8, 2025 • 128 Comments

Inland Empire PMI spikes to highest since early 2021, New Orders spike to record: Private sector is dynamic. But not always in linear ways.

10-Year Treasury Yield Snaps Back Brutally, Stocks Go Crazy, S&P 500 Spikes 8.5% then Plunges Back in 1 Hour on Fake News

by Wolf Richter • Apr 7, 2025 • 131 Comments

Treacherous markets. But they did seem to catch their breath finally. Stocks are due for a big bounce.

Bank of Japan’s QT Accelerates, 2 Years Behind the Fed & ECB, but Now Visibly Part of the QT Party

by Wolf Richter • Apr 7, 2025 • 14 Comments

BOJ Quantitative Tightening: -¥18 trillion (-$120 billion) in March, -¥27 trillion YoY, to ¥729 trillion total assets, lowest since December 2022.

Inventories of Existing Homes in Florida Spike in March to Highest since at Least 2016, Massive Jumps in Tampa, Miami, Orlando, as Buyers Are on Strike

by Wolf Richter • Apr 5, 2025 • 116 Comments

These sellers have to compete with inventory of new houses that in the South is now above Housing Bust highs.

The Stock Market May Be in Trouble and Consumers May Be in a Sour Mood, But the Labor Market Is Just Fine

by Wolf Richter • Apr 4, 2025 • 183 Comments

Despite the furor over government job cuts, tariff chaos, and what not.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$33 Billion in March, -$2.24 Trillion from Peak, to $6.72 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020

by Wolf Richter • Apr 3, 2025 • 117 Comments

Fed’s assets-to-GDP ratio dropped to 22.6%, first seen in 2013. Quantitative Tightening has shed 25% of total assets from peak.