Do We Really Need More Stimulus to Print More Millionaires & Billionaires, Enrich Fraudsters, Balloon the Trade Deficit? Consumer Data Says, “No We Don’t”

by Wolf Richter • Oct 30, 2020 • 109 Comments

People who need support, should get support. As for the rest? On my soapbox, wildly wagging consumer income and spending data.

I’m in Awe of How Fast Rents Plunge in San Francisco, New York, Boston, Los Angeles, Other Expensive Cities. Rents Decline Even in Houston & Dallas. National Average Turns Negative

by Wolf Richter • Oct 30, 2020 • 113 Comments

Work-from-anywhere, unemployment crisis, oil bust, people chasing a cheaper less crowded place to live, the land rush to buy homes.

WeWork Forerunner IWG/Regus Restructures its Business, Unleashing Mayhem on Landlords and Investors

by Nick Corbishley • Oct 29, 2020 • 22 Comments

Regus’ U.S. subsidiary, RGN Holdings, has already filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

No, GDP Didn’t Jump “33.1%” in Q3, But 7.4%, after Plunging 9% in Q2: Time to Kill “Annualized” Growth Rates. Imports, Powered by Stimulus, Dragged on GDP

by Wolf Richter • Oct 29, 2020 • 60 Comments

GDP back to Q1 2018. Worst ever “net exports.” The decline in government spending was also a drag. “GDP per Capita” bounced back only to 2017 level.

My Random Walk Down Junk-Bond Minefield: How I Lost 77% after Buying DNR’s Unsecured Bonds at Rock-Bottom 8 Cents on the Dollar

by David in Texas • Oct 28, 2020 • 84 Comments

Here’s how I got walked through Denbury’s bankruptcy proceedings.

Unlocked Shareholder Value, so to Speak: Job Cuts at Boeing to Reach 30,000. Commercial Airplane Revenue -56%. $5 Billion Go Up in Flames in Q3, $22 Billion since 737 Max Fiasco.

by Wolf Richter • Oct 28, 2020 • 119 Comments

$43 billion incinerated on Share Buybacks since 2012 to manipulate up the share price would come in handy now. Shares -60% since June 2019.

Americans Are Super-Gloomy About Holiday Spending, But Industry Ramps Up for Blockbuster Christmas

by Wolf Richter • Oct 27, 2020 • 181 Comments

Something is afoot here. And someone is going to be wrong.

Jingle Mail Haunts Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities as Property Values Get Slashed Below Loan Amounts

by Wolf Richter • Oct 26, 2020 • 125 Comments

At the time of securitization into CMBS a few years ago, inflated collateral values led to soothingly low loan-to-value ratios. Then trouble hit.

How Fast Can a “Shortage” of Office Space Turn into a “Glut?” San Francisco Shows How Fast

by Wolf Richter • Oct 25, 2020 • 104 Comments

Commercial real estate is in turmoil, but San Francisco’s glut is dwarfed by the fiascos in Houston and Calgary.

US, Global Corporate Giants Not Amused Mexico Finally Forces Them to Pay the Taxes They Owe

by Nick Corbishley • Oct 25, 2020 • 70 Comments

American Bar Association, Mexican business lobby, ambassadors from the US, Canada, etc. in uproar over holding executives accountable and threatening them with criminal probes. 70 Mexican officials also investigated.

Housing Market Goes Nuts, Everyone Sees it, But it Can’t Last

by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2020 • 307 Comments

There’s a housing shortage until there’s suddenly a housing glut: see San Francisco et al.

Fed Assets Eke Out New Record for First Time Since June 10. But Repos, Dollar Liquidity Swaps, SPVs Mothballed

by Wolf Richter • Oct 22, 2020 • 65 Comments

Only Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are still active.

Sorting through the Data Chaos in Unemployment Claims: Week 31 of U.S. Labor Market Collapse

by Wolf Richter • Oct 22, 2020 • 59 Comments

California Emerged from its “Reset.”

Down-to-Earth View of the “Recovery” in Near-Real Time, Eight Months into the Pandemic

by Wolf Richter • Oct 21, 2020 • 112 Comments

As seen by indicators that have sprung up as a result of the Pandemic.

“Creative Destruction” or Just “Destruction?”

by Wolf Richter • Oct 21, 2020 • 119 Comments

Under the effects of the Pandemic, consumers and businesses grapple with their own “Reset.”

Synchrony Financial Disclosed Radical Work-from-Home Plan, Layoffs, and “Office Footprint” Reduction

by Wolf Richter • Oct 20, 2020 • 168 Comments

Landlords and their lenders who’re still thinking work-from-home is just a blip will undergo a reckoning in due time.

Trucking, Container Carriers, FedEx, UPS, Other Freight Firms Warn of “Capacity Shortage,” Expect Americans to Keep Splurging Despite Jobs Crisis

by Wolf Richter • Oct 19, 2020 • 134 Comments

Better produce a big-fat stimulus bill pronto and keep eviction bans and forbearance going, or else these companies will face economic reality.

Amid Eviction Moratorium, Wiggle Room Tightens for Retail Landlords & Tenants in the UK

by Nick Corbishley • Oct 19, 2020 • 36 Comments

Land Securities, a Giant UK REIT, announced that it would try to sell a large portion of its properties. No buyers identified yet.

Worst Recovery Ever: To Soothe Investor Pain, Government Agency TSA Hypes Airline Stocks in Chilling PR Stunt

by Wolf Richter • Oct 19, 2020 • 147 Comments

What the TSA said in its PR stunt and what it forgot to say.

THE WOLF STREET REPORT: “Creative Destruction” or Just “Destruction”?

by Wolf Richter • Oct 18, 2020 • 109 Comments

Under the effects of the Pandemic, consumers and businesses grapple with their own “Reset.”

Stimulus & Debt-Deferral Economy: Americans Splurged. Huge Price Increases Boosted Auto Sales. Liquidation Sales Pumped up Department Stores

by Wolf Richter • Oct 16, 2020 • 154 Comments

Depicted by my 13 whiplash-charts.

Extend-and-Pretend Caused Bankruptcies to Plunge in Germany, France, Spain. Now Central Banks Tell Banks to Prepare for Bankruptcy Surge

by Nick Corbishley • Oct 16, 2020 • 32 Comments

The “second wave,” if prolonged, could cause bad loans to almost triple, to €1.4 trillion, says the ECB.

Airlines Raised $$$-Billions via Frequent Flier Programs. Delta alone Raised $9 billion via SkyMiles as Collateral. How?

by Wolf Richter • Oct 15, 2020 • 81 Comments

“You’re the Collateral.” Separating the assets (including you) from the liabilities (your miles), and pledging the assets.

The Great American Oil & Gas Massacre: Bankruptcies Hit New Milestone as Bigger Companies Let Go

by Wolf Richter • Oct 14, 2020 • 124 Comments

The American Oil Boom Was Where Money Went to Die.

“Daily Cash Burn” to Continue till Further Notice: US Air Travelers Still -65%, Ticket Prices -25%, a Toxic Mix. Delta Q3 Passenger Revenues -83%

by Wolf Richter • Oct 14, 2020 • 107 Comments

Eight months into crisis, airlines are stuck in worst recovery ever.

Highly Leveraged Commercial Real Estate Bets that UK Local Authorities Took to Meet Budget Shortfalls Begin to Unravel

by Nick Corbishley • Oct 13, 2020 • 61 Comments

With impeccable timing.

Crazy Times Not Only for Consumers Trying to Buy a Used Car but also for Dealers Grappling with the Distortions

by Wolf Richter • Oct 13, 2020 • 82 Comments

Retail prices of used cars & trucks spiked most since 1969 despite lower sales and plenty of supply. Wholesale prices, after biggest spike ever, are already falling.

Disney Struck. Cinemas, Landlords Live Nightmare in Brick-and-Mortar-Meltdown Series as Movie Debuts Shift to Streaming

by Wolf Richter • Oct 12, 2020 • 121 Comments

Efforts to redevelop dying Stonestown Galleria in San Francisco turn into mess. The beating of landlords will continue until mood improves.

Two San Francisco Hiltons Add to Woes of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities. Special Servicing Rate of Hotel CMBS Spiked to 26%

by Wolf Richter • Oct 12, 2020 • 84 Comments

Four of the six hotels that REIT Park Hotels & Resorts owns in San Francisco are closed, with convention & business travel at near-zero.

Status of the Social Security Trust Fund, Fiscal 2020: Beware of Vicious Dog

by Wolf Richter • Oct 10, 2020 • 248 Comments

Will Social Security Be There for You? Yes, but…