Still QT plus Renewed Rate Hikes at the ECB despite Surging Bond Yields in the Euro Area

by Wolf Richter • Oct 8, 2026 • 28 Comments

The ECB shed €95 billion of QE Bonds & Loans in Q3. Since mid-2022, QE assets dropped by 53%! Gold got marked up to market.

Thoughts on the 10-Year Treasury Auction’s 5.30% Yield, Highest since 2000: It Created Demand, Bond Bloodbath Continued

by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2026 • 49 Comments

The bond market is coming out from under 14 years of interest rate repression and is doing its thing, the way it is supposed to. And that’s what Warsh wants it to do.

Mortgage Rates Jump to 7.5%, Home Buyers Pull Back Further, Demand Sags

by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2026 • 51 Comments

Mortgage applications to purchase a home plunged and to refinance a home collapsed.

Though Pussyfooting Around on Rate Hikes, the Bank of Japan Pushes QT to Prop Up the Plunging Yen

by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2026 • 17 Comments

Its QT is substantial and ongoing and impacts long-term yields of Japanese Government Bonds.

Home Sellers Grapple with Reality: Listing Prices Drop in Florida, California, Texas, and Suddenly even in New York

by Wolf Richter • Oct 6, 2026 • 51 Comments

In New York, until recently a beacon of strength, the bottom fell out over the summer.

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Re-Spikes to 12.2%, Far Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. End of Extend-and-Pretend Looms

by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2026 • 56 Comments

The dictum morphs from “Survive till ’25” (when low interest rates were supposed to return) to “Sell at today’s price, or the lender will.”

Home Prices in the Largest 20 European Countries, from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that Fell Back to 2009

by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2026 • 53 Comments

A wild ride across Europe’s very different housing markets.

A Wild Week for 10-Year & 30-Year Treasury Yields! Is there Blood in the Streets yet? Is it Good Enough for me to Nibble?

by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2026 • 158 Comments

Some thoughts on how I’m easing back into a bond portfolio after 14 years of interest-rate repression.

Where Are the Jobs? Winners and Losers by Industry

by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2026 • 28 Comments

Big structural shifts have destroyed jobs in some industries and created jobs in others.

Private Sector Employers Created 46,000 Jobs, Governments Shed 17,000 Jobs

by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2026 • 23 Comments

The labor force rose, after shedding 2.1 million people in 8 months amid the crackdown on illegal immigration and the wave of retirements.

Homeowners Are Clinging to their Below-4% Mortgages for Dear Life as Mortgage Rates Went over 7%

by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2026 • 85 Comments

The housing market, wrecked by ultralow mortgage rates, will stay wrecked for longer.

AI Data Center Construction Goes Nuts, Power Plants Take Off, but Spending on Factories Is still Twice as Big as Data Centers

by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2026 • 28 Comments

Construction companies are now facing the second wave of inflation.

The US Economy “Is Running Hot,” Lots of Consumer Spending Growth, Lots of Inflation. The Bond Market Sees it Too

by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2026 • 101 Comments

Spending on discretionary goods and services that people buy to have fun with was particularly motivated.

Not Even the Massive Changes of Methodology Can Get PCE Inflation Back into the Bottle

by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2026 • 68 Comments

Those changes in methodology knocked the PCE price index down, but even the new-and-improved version remained far above the Fed’s target.

Turnover in the Labor Market Calms Down, after Chaotic Churn

by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2026 • 26 Comments

Workers quit quitting and settled in, after the epic rematching of workers and employers.

Anthropic Lost $42 Billion on $4.6 Billion in Revenues in 2025: Leaked IPO Prospectus

by Wolf Richter • Sep 28, 2026 • 90 Comments

It plans to spend $518 billion in the coming years on cloud, computing, and infrastructure obligations and now needs a lot of AI magic money.

Biggest Borrowers & Lenders in the $13.5-Trillion Repo Market: How the Hedge Fund “Basis Trade” & Money Market Funds Fit In

by Wolf Richter • Sep 28, 2026 • 42 Comments

It works really well, until it suddenly doesn’t.

Long-Term Treasury Yields Rise to 5.5%, Mortgage Rates to 7.5%, as Bond Market Grapples with a Complex Reality

by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2026 • 160 Comments

It would make sense for the bond market to take a breather here and digest a little. But the dynamics are in place for yields to rise further.

WHOOSH, Go Orders at US Manufacturers of “Core Capital Goods,” Fueled by the AI Infrastructure Boom

by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2026 • 41 Comments

Orders received by manufacturers of core capital goods spiked by 14% YoY, of machinery by 15%, of IT equipment by 16%.

What the Infamous “Housing Shortage” Looks Like: Inventories of New Single-Family Homes Balloon, Sales Crawl, Prices Sag

by Wolf Richter • Sep 24, 2026 • 90 Comments

Homebuilders have been doing their job creating lots of new housing stock, but demand is weak, and supply sky-high.