10-Year Treasury Yield Re-Dips Below EFFR, Yield Curve Sags Deeply in the Middle, Dollar Bounces Back into 3-Year Range

by Wolf Richter • Apr 26, 2025 • 41 Comments

Turns out, demand from foreigners for Treasury securities at the auctions was just fine.

Office Vacancy Rate in the US Worsens to Record 22.6% in Q1 amid Federal Government Lease Terminations

by Wolf Richter • Apr 25, 2025 • 30 Comments

But it may take a while before these federal lease terminations work their way into CRE delinquency rates.

Sales of Existing Homes Drop to Worst March since 2009. West, South, Midwest, Northeast All Get Crushed. Supply Surges to Highest since 2016

by Wolf Richter • Apr 24, 2025 • 109 Comments

The 3-year 50% price explosion caused epic demand destruction. Prices way too high. But mortgage rates back in the historically normal range above 6%.

Inventory of New Houses for Sale Stuck at Highest Level since 2007, Driven by Gluts in the South & West. Prices Fall, Incentives Soar, Sales Rise

by Wolf Richter • Apr 23, 2025 • 67 Comments

Homebuilders get aggressive to sell the inventory, but prices are still far too high.

In 15 Bigger Cities, Condo Prices Already -10% to -22%, 5 Are in Florida with Accelerating Drops. Absurdity Comes Unglued

by Wolf Richter • Apr 22, 2025 • 129 Comments

Austin, Oakland, St. Petersburg (FL), San Francisco, Chula Vista, Detroit, New Orleans, Denver, Jacksonville, Naples, Tampa, Mesa, Portland, Seattle.

Despite Turmoil in Stocks: Financial Conditions, Financial Stress, Junk-Bond Spreads Still in La-La Land or Barely Exiting

by Wolf Richter • Apr 21, 2025 • 128 Comments

These are aspects the Fed is considering in its monetary policy; that type of discussion is part of its meeting minutes.

The Spread between 10-Year Treasury Yield & Mortgage Rates Is Historically Wide and Widened Further: Some Thoughts

by Wolf Richter • Apr 18, 2025 • 151 Comments

Mortgage rates are higher in relationship to the 10-year Treasury yield than they were most of the time over the past 50 years. There are reasons.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 of the Largest Housing Markets

by Wolf Richter • Apr 17, 2025 • 143 Comments

Metros with YoY price drops double to 14: Austin, Tampa, San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Orlando, Atlanta, Miami, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Birmingham, Charlotte. YoY gains narrow sharply in San Diego, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Columbus… 20 below 2022 peaks.

Oh Elon! Tesla Crushed Further in California in Q1, Non-Tesla EV Sales Soar. Cybertruck Joining Failed Models of Automotive History?

by Wolf Richter • Apr 17, 2025 • 118 Comments

Non-Tesla EV sales +36% YoY. Tesla sales plunge to lowest since Q3 2022. Cybertruck sales fall for 2nd quarter in a row.

Foreign Investors Massively Bought US Treasury Securities in February: China, Japan, Canada, Euro Area, UK, Financial Centers, Taiwan, India, even Brazil

by Wolf Richter • Apr 16, 2025 • 81 Comments

Biggest increase since June 2021. And they mostly bought long-term Treasury debt. No major holder dumped.

Drunken Sailors Back in Splurge Mode, Retail Sales Surge. Even at Restaurants & Bars not Part of Frontrunning Tariffs

by Wolf Richter • Apr 16, 2025 • 62 Comments

The recession is going to have to get back in line and wait.

Nvidia Makes Mess Afterhours, Discloses $5.5 Billion in Charges due to US Export Restrictions on its H20 Chip for China

by Wolf Richter • Apr 15, 2025 • 112 Comments

Stock down 6.5%, Nasdaq futures down 1.5%.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, March 2025: Sales Plunge, Supply Surges, Overall Prices Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Driven by Toronto

by Wolf Richter • Apr 15, 2025 • 62 Comments

But in some metros, prices continued to spike. By Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Halifax, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Quebec City.

Our Drunken Sailors Are Back: Sales of Used Vehicles Surge in March, same as New Vehicles. Retail Sales Might Look Good

by Wolf Richter • Apr 14, 2025 • 77 Comments

Despite their foul mood, consumers are splurging on vehicles and may also be splurging on other products.

10-Year Treasury Yield Snaps Back to February’s 4.5%, Yield Curve Re-Un-Inverts, Mortgage Rates Back at 7%

by Wolf Richter • Apr 12, 2025 • 147 Comments

The aggressive Bash-Down by the White House of long-term Treasury yields and the dollar since January worked. Until it didn’t.

OMG the Dollar Is Collapsing, or Whatever

by Wolf Richter • Apr 11, 2025 • 154 Comments

Despite the “Dollar’s Collapse,” the USD remains in its 3-year range and a lot higher than it was before.

PPI Pushed into Negative by Dropping Prices of Many Goods and Services

by Wolf Richter • Apr 11, 2025 • 85 Comments

The Producer Price Index is where tariffs will show up first, whether or not companies can pass on those cost increases.

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Surging Prices of Food, Housing, Medical Care Meet Plunging Prices of Gasoline & Travel Services

by Wolf Richter • Apr 10, 2025 • 173 Comments

Worst food inflation since 2022. Worst housing inflation in months. But plunging prices for lodging, rental cars, and airfares are interesting.

Trump Speaks and Stocks Spike, after Trump Spoke and Stocks Plunged (Makes You Wonder, Why even Own Stocks?)

by Wolf Richter • Apr 9, 2025 • 271 Comments

The huge spike, following the selloff, evokes further parallels with the Dotcom Bust and Financial Crisis crash, in the middle of which similar spikes occurred.

Shadow Inventory of Vacant Homes Suddenly Piles on the Market in Texas. New Listings, Active Listings Spike to Highest for March in Many Years

by Wolf Richter • Apr 9, 2025 • 60 Comments

Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio: Even as sales plunge, vacant homes pile on the market that were held off the market during Covid.