GM Shuts Down its Misbegotten Robotaxi Money-Pit after Acquiring Cruise in 2016 and then Blowing $10 Billion on It by Wolf Richter • Dec 10, 2024 • 9 Comments Cruise was supposed to generate $50 billion in revenues by 2030, according to GM’s former hype, which Wall Street ate up.
Credit-Market Mania Crushed “Yield Spreads” & Risk Premiums, but Corporate & CRE Borrowing Costs Are Still Much Higher by Wolf Richter • Dec 9, 2024 • 41 Comments Loosey-goosey financial conditions don’t mean low borrowing costs. They just mean narrow yield spreads.
Used-Vehicle Prices Turn into Inflation Headwind, after Historic 2-Year Plunge Helped Power the “Deceleration” of Core CPI by Wolf Richter • Dec 7, 2024 • 45 Comments Prices are rising again, amid tight supply, sharply reduced flow through the used-vehicle pipeline, and strong demand.
Labor Market Doing Fine. The Fed Can be “Careful” with Rate Cuts. Maybe Time for Some Wait-and-See? by Wolf Richter • Dec 6, 2024 • 73 Comments Payrolls & wages jump, prior 2 months revised higher, solid bounce-back from Hurricanes and Boeing strike. 3-month average payrolls +173,000!
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$98 Billion in November, -$2.07 Trillion from Peak, to $6.90 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020 by Wolf Richter • Dec 5, 2024 • 70 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 43% of the assets the Fed had added during pandemic QE. Bank-panic facility BTFP is vanishing.
Everybody Should Get Used to these Mortgage Rates, Says Fannie Mae CEO: Mortgage Rates, 10-Year Treasury Yields, QT, and Spreads by Wolf Richter • Dec 5, 2024 • 62 Comments “Current mortgage rates and Fannie Mae’s forecast for 2025 rates are well in line with rates over the past several decades.”
Cut the Price and They Will Come: New-Vehicle Sales Jump amid Big Discounts and Incentives, as Inventory Balloons by Wolf Richter • Dec 4, 2024 • 86 Comments But prices are still way too high, and automakers are not cutting them nearly enough.
Underlying Job Market Dynamics Begin to Retighten. The Fed Is Already Backpedaling on the Pace and Depth of Rate Cuts by Wolf Richter • Dec 3, 2024 • 99 Comments Job openings and voluntary quits jumped by the most in over a year, layoffs and discharges plunged.
Factory Construction Spending Soars to New Record, +16% YoY, +242% since 2019: Result of Corporate & Strategic Rethink by Wolf Richter • Dec 2, 2024 • 101 Comments Trump’s tariffs — a tax on profit margins of US & foreign companies — will push in the same direction as Biden’s taxpayer-and-debt-funded incentives.
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever by Wolf Richter • Nov 30, 2024 • 83 Comments Office-to-residential conversions are growing, but are minuscule because not many towers are suitable for conversion.
Federal Government Interest-Payments-to-Tax-Receipts Ratio Spikes, Debt-to-GDP Worsens Further in Q3 by Wolf Richter • Nov 29, 2024 • 149 Comments The magnitude and speed of the ratio’s 2-year spike is unprecedented in modern US history. It does not look good.
Inflation Re-Accelerates Despite Plunging Gasoline Prices as “Core Services” PCE Price Index Hits 7-Month High by Wolf Richter • Nov 27, 2024 • 148 Comments Core services inflation is the biggie, and it’s going the wrong way. The Fed is already talking down the pace of rate cuts.
Inventory of New Single-Family Houses Jumps to Highest since 2007. Unsold Spec Houses Jump to Highest since 2009 as Sales Suddenly Plunge by Wolf Richter • Nov 26, 2024 • 136 Comments Bring on the supply. Homebuilders may need to do some serious price cutting to move their inventory.
Americans Buy Ever Bigger, More Powerful, More Fuel-Efficient Trucks, SUVs & Cars. EVs Escalate the Horsepower War by Wolf Richter • Nov 25, 2024 • 83 Comments “The roughly linear increase in specific power” of ICE vehicles over the past 50 years “does not appear to be slowing”: EPA.
Operating Losses and “Unrealized” Losses of the Federal Reserve in Q3 2024 by Wolf Richter • Nov 23, 2024 • 86 Comments QE was a huge gravy train for taxpayers. But then came the hangover.
US National Debt Goes Over $36 Trillion, +$2 Trillion in 2024!! 🥂🍾 by Wolf Richter • Nov 22, 2024 • 166 Comments The share of T-bills outstanding, average interest rate paid on the debt, and cash in the Government Checking Account (TGA).
US Dollar Crushes Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, other Currencies as Fed Backpedals on Pace of Rate Cuts by Wolf Richter • Nov 22, 2024 • 64 Comments Amid renewed inflation worries and above-average economic growth.
Demand Destruction for Existing Homes: Sales in 2024 Track Lowest since 1995 amid Highest Supply for October in 6 Years by Wolf Richter • Nov 21, 2024 • 132 Comments Too-high home prices cause demand destruction on an epic scale. Buyers’ strike continues in November and December.
ECB’s Own Measure of Wage Increases Blows Fuse, Sets Off Alarms about Stubbornly Hot Services Inflation by Wolf Richter • Nov 20, 2024 • 57 Comments Meanwhile, the ECB’s QT marches on, balance sheet has shed €2.45 trillion since the peak, or 59% of its pandemic QE.
Credit Card Delinquency Rates, Balances, Burden, and Available Credit in Q3 2024 by Wolf Richter • Nov 19, 2024 • 83 Comments Americans far from “tapped out.” Credit card delinquency rate dips to 3.2% (Fed), “prime” delinquency rate 0.99% (Fitch), “subprime” gets over free-money hangover.
