“Why the current tightening cycle is unlike anything we’ve observed in the past.”
This crash beneath the surface showed something had broken, that the magic had died, that hype and hoopla were suddenly unable to carry the day (transcript).
It’s still supply-chain chaos for retailers, but different retailers face different kinds of chaos.
California special: Pending sales collapse by 30%, prices begin to “moderate,” San Francisco condo prices decline year-over-year.
The June sell-off did a job on them.
This crash beneath the surface showed something had broken, that the magic had died, that hype and hoopla were suddenly unable to carry the day.
We listed a 40-unit apartment building in the East Bay, a couple months too late, and a shopping center in Silicon Valley. Here’s what happened.
Average price jumps by $5,000 from year ago, to $45,495.
Wait for the original mug (no confirmation it will ever be produced again), or grab the mug I can get.
Someone might think, OK, I could speculate with the J-Pow Pattern at the next Fed meeting.
Wait… gasoline exports are rising.
This is fast moving now, but the Fed is still pouring fuel on the fire.
Spent $20 billion more at gas stations, from a year ago, due to spiking prices; came out of hide of other retailers. Inflation eats everyone’s lunch.
In short, the party ran out of bamboozle.
Margin debt issued warnings starting in early 2021 that the Big S would hit the fan. Folks blew it off.
Something has to give. And it’s going to be price.
From SPAC merger to Chapter 7 bankruptcy in 12 months. That was fast! Congratulations on the speed and on being first!
Folks looking for yield have options now. Won’t beat inflation, but won’t get their face ripped off either.
Still way too much wild craziness, including the ultimate bag-holder gamble: Why the bottom isn’t anywhere near.
The Fed is going to have a field day with its rate hikes.