Bond Market Smells a Rat: On Eve of CPI Inflation Data, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.08%, +43 bps since Monster Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 9, 2024 • 85 Comments Fed is seen as deprioritizing inflation fight, while a tsunami of supply heads for markets.
Florida Housing Market Buckles, Listing Prices Sag to 30-Month Low but Are Still Way Too High, Inventory Piles Up, Institutional Investors Turn into Net Sellers by Wolf Richter • Oct 8, 2024 • 172 Comments He who panics first, panics best. Mr. Holmes, with no offers in 9 months, missed that train and is chasing prices lower.
People Are Now on Buyers’ Strike Because Home Prices Are too High: Fannie Mae by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2024 • 100 Comments Optimism about dropping mortgage rates drove up the Home Purchase Sentiment Index, but the poll occurred just before mortgage rates exploded.
More Evidence this May Be the End of the Historic Plunge of Used Vehicle Prices that Had Pushed Down CPI by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2024 • 44 Comments Amid tight supply and strong demand.
Mortgage Rates Explode, 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Monster Rate-Cut Hopes Doused, Inflation Fears Resurface: Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2024 • 136 Comments The yield curve moved further toward un-inversion, but not the way it was hoped.
OK, Forget it, False Alarm, Labor Market Is Fine, Bad Stuff Last Month Was Revised Away, Wages Jumped. No More Rate Cuts Needed? by Wolf Richter • Oct 4, 2024 • 230 Comments Pandemic distortions and millions of migrants suddenly entering the labor market, who are hard to track, have wreaked havoc on data accuracy.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in Sept., -$1.92 Trillion from Peak, to $7.05 Trillion, Back to May 2020. To Drop Below $7 Trillion in 1-2 Months by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2024 • 72 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 40% of the assets added during pandemic QE.
Here Come the Vacant Homes: New Listings Jump when they Normally Drop in September, Active Listings Pile up, Listing Prices Drop below 2 Years Ago. Buyers on Strike, Prices too High by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2024 • 84 Comments Sellers coming out of the closet with their vacant homes. Active listings exploded the most in San Diego (+77%).
Ugly Q3 for ICE Vehicles. Total Q3 Sales Dropped Year-over-Year. But EV Sales Jumped, even at GM & Ford by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2024 • 56 Comments Prices too high, automakers too slow cutting them from the pandemic spike. Stellantis sales plunged 20%, a fiasco.
Tesla’s Global Deliveries Rise, Best Q3 Ever, But Not Enough to Fix the Shattered High-Growth Story by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2024 • 89 Comments Cybertruck production ramping up, starting to show up in the numbers (a little). Long way to go.
Epic Office Glut Hits Records in San Francisco, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle, Washington DC. Dallas Availability Rate Dips to 30%, Houston rises to 29% by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2024 • 44 Comments The “war for space” before the pandemic unravels into biggest office glut ever.
Balance of Power Changed, Employers Re-exert Control, but also Cling to their Workers by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2024 • 88 Comments Fewer workers quit (rattled by layoff headlines?), so fewer vacant slots to fill and less hiring. But actual layoffs are at historic lows.
CRE Mess Not Letting Up: CMBS Delinquency Rates Jump in September as Office, Retail, and Lodging Deteriorate Further by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2024 • 57 Comments Rate cuts cannot fix the structural issues crushing office & retail CRE. But industrial, fueled by ecommerce, is in good condition.
Status of the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Share Drops to Lowest since 1995. Central Banks Diversify to “Nontraditional” Currencies and Gold by Wolf Richter • Sep 28, 2024 • 146 Comments But China’s renminbi keeps losing ground.
Consumer Income & Savings Rate Revised Massively Higher for 2 Years, Spending Revised Up Too. Stunning Numbers by Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2024 • 79 Comments Our Drunken Sailors earned and saved a lot more than we thought, spent more too, causing substantial up-revisions to post-pandemic GDP.
Fed Favored Annual Core PCE Price Index Accelerates to 2.7%, Highest since April, on Higher Core Services Inflation (+3.8%). Durable Goods -2.2%, Energy -10% by Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2024 • 85 Comments Housing costs jumped. Stubbornly high housing inflation has frustrated Powell for a long time.
Corporate Pricing Power and Therefore Inflation Not Vanquished, Says Renewed Spike in Corporate Profits in Most Industries by Wolf Richter • Sep 26, 2024 • 98 Comments More evidence that underlying inflation dynamics are thriving.
Here Comes the Inventory of New Spec Houses, Highest since 2009. Sales Jump, Builders Take Share from Homeowners by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2024 • 111 Comments This buildup of completed single-family houses is a factor in resolving the price dislocations of the overall housing market.
Who Holds all these US Treasury Securities? Update on the Investors in the Ballooning US National Debt in Q2 by Wolf Richter • Sep 24, 2024 • 94 Comments As the Fed is unloading them, others are loading up.
Job Losses Pile Up at Tech & Social Media Companies in San Francisco & Silicon Valley after Reckless Hiring Frenzy by Wolf Richter • Sep 24, 2024 • 123 Comments A reckoning with budding parallels to the Dotcom Bubble & Bust, while other sectors continue to grow. Unemployment rate rose to 3.9%.
