This May Be the End of the Massive Deflation in Used Vehicles that Pushed Down Core CPI: Wholesale Prices Surge for 2nd Month amid Strong Sales Growth & Tight Inventories by Wolf Richter • Sep 9, 2024 • 45 Comments Wholesale prices jumped across the board but spiked the most for EVs.
The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2024 • 60 Comments Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care.
Rate Cut Mania Now Crushing Stocks after Whipping Stocks into Frenzy or Whatever. Mag 7 Down $2.5 Trillion from Peak, Nasdaq Bloodied, Semis Crushed by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2024 • 122 Comments A 4% drop will put the Nasdaq back to Nov 2021. Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet already back where they’d been 3 or 4 years ago. Nvidia -24% from peak.
The Fed Has Room to Cut, Rates Are High Relative to Inflation, and Job Growth Could Use some Juicing Up by Wolf Richter • Sep 6, 2024 • 192 Comments Job growth bounces back some, hourly earnings jump, unemployment dips, but job growth is too slow to absorb the massive influx of immigrants.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in August, -$1.85 Trillion from Peak, to $7.11 Trillion, back to June 2020, Another QT Milestone by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2024 • 82 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed so far 38% of the assets that pandemic QE had added.
Buyers’ Strike Deepened in August Despite Lower Mortgage Rates. Listings Surge, Home Sellers Slowly Drop Prices by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2024 • 104 Comments Listing prices, YoY: Miami -11.7%, San Diego -9.1%, Kansas City -8.5%, San Francisco -7.7%, Austin -7.6%. Active listings explode in Tampa, San Diego, Miami, Seattle…
Is the Labor Market “Normalizing?” What Even Is “Normal?” by Wolf Richter • Sep 4, 2024 • 60 Comments Fewer quits and historically low layoffs & discharges mean fewer job openings, and less hiring to fill them. But that’s only part of it.
Bloodletting in Semiconductor Stocks Kicks Off September: Nvidia -11.7% Regular & Late Trading, Market Cap Drops by Half a Tesla by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2024 • 155 Comments Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3%. If it drops another 6.7%, it’ll be back to November 2021.
Construction Spending Squeaks to Record amid Eyepopping Boom in Spending on Factories while Residential Construction Tries to Dig Out of Last Year’s Slump by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2024 • 43 Comments Majority of construction spending goes into nonresidential, dominated now by a spending spree on factories.
Why We’ll Replace the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Our Series, “The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America” by Wolf Richter • Sep 2, 2024 • 99 Comments The series, started in 2017 to document visually the surging home prices amid the Fed’s interest rate repression, will now get bigger and better.
Our Drunken Sailors Are at it Again, Not at All in the Mood for a Slowdown or a Recession by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2024 • 161 Comments Inflation-adjusted consumer spending jumped. They splurged on durable goods. And still saved some. In response, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow jumped.
Fed Favored Annual Core PCE Price Index Slightly Up, at 2.6%: Core Services Inflation 3.7%, Durable Goods Deflation -2.5% by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2024 • 72 Comments Month-to-month, core services inflation jumped while durable goods deflation deepened, and so core PCE price index hits Fed’s target.
Spiking Interest Payments on the Ballooning US Government Debt v. Tax Receipts, GDP, and Inflation: Q2 Update by Wolf Richter • Aug 29, 2024 • 91 Comments Burden of the national debt: The portion of tax receipts swallowed by interest payments.
Buyers’ Strike Deepens: Pending Home Sales Drop to Record Low Despite Surging Supply & Much Lower Mortgage Rates that Already Price in Massive Rate Cuts by Wolf Richter • Aug 29, 2024 • 131 Comments “A sales recovery did not occur in midsummer”: NAR. Because prices are way too high, doesn’t take a genius to figure that out.
Treasury Department Aggressively Pushes Down Long-Term Interest Rates via Shift to T-bill Issuance and Bond Buybacks by Wolf Richter • Aug 28, 2024 • 168 Comments But buybacks occur at huge losses for investors. Today it bought back a 1.25% 20-year bond for 66 cents on the dollar.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Aug 2024 Update: Prices Decelerate. Below 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Dallas, Las Vegas by Wolf Richter • Aug 27, 2024 • 106 Comments New Highs: Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, New York, Miami, Tampa, Washington DC, Chicago.
Manufacturing (beyond Boeing) Not Dead: Orders Rose to New Highs in 2024, after a Little Dip in 2023, after Pandemic Boom by Wolf Richter • Aug 26, 2024 • 29 Comments And the order backlog has started rising again.
The Data Mess. Markets, Interest Rates & Inflation and There’s Still No Recession; Risks of Financialization & Overleverage by Wolf Richter • Aug 26, 2024 • 87 Comments Wolf Richter on Thoughtful Money.
The Rate Cuts Powell Dangled in Front of Markets May Slam into Inflationary Fiscal & Economic Policies of Whoever Is in the White House Next Year by Wolf Richter • Aug 24, 2024 • 196 Comments For the Treasury market, Powell’s speech was a nothingburger. A Sep rate cut has been priced in since the Aug 2 jobs report.
Inventory of New Completed Houses Surges to Highest since 2009, Triple from 2 Years Ago, Exactly What’s Needed to Bring Down Prices across the Housing Market by Wolf Richter • Aug 23, 2024 • 106 Comments Sales of new houses jumped, fueled by lower prices, big incentives, and mortgage-rate buydowns. Homebuilders are taking share from homeowners.
