Treasury Yield Curve Re-Inverts with Sag in the Middle, as Government Swats Down 10-Year Yield. But Mortgage Rates Don’t Follow all the Way, Spread Widens

Ecommerce sales jumped. General merchandise retailers, supermarkets, etc., booked solid gains. Lower prices cut gasoline & auto sales. But restaurants?

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Feb 2025: The Price Drops & Gains of 33 Largest Costliest Housing Markets

by Wolf Richter • Mar 17, 2025 • 114 Comments

Below 2022 highs: Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix, San Antonio, Denver, Sacramento, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Portland, Salt Lake, Seattle, Tampa, Raleigh, Houston, Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, Orlando…

Will Economic Detox Lead to a Recession? Maybe Not. But a Long Deep Stock Market Rout Will (See Dotcom Bust)

by Wolf Richter • Mar 14, 2025 • 220 Comments

“We’re focused on the real economy,” Bessent said. “Ouch,” stocks said. Where did the Trump put go?

Money Market Funds & CDs: Americans’ $11-Trillion in Cash, Not Trash, Much of it Still Earning 4%+

by Wolf Richter • Mar 14, 2025 • 87 Comments

Tsunami of cash is still washing over money market funds. But banks’ fight for deposits is over.

It’s Again the Hefty Up-Revisions that Heat PPI Inflation: Been Happening Month after Month

by Wolf Richter • Mar 13, 2025 • 79 Comments

January was up-revised to worst increase since August 2023, PPI inflation doubling in 12 months. February unchanged, waiting for up-revision.

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Pace Slows from Spike Last Month, but 6-Month CPI Accelerates Further, Worst Increase since September 2023

by Wolf Richter • Mar 12, 2025 • 73 Comments

Natural gas and electricity pushed up energy costs in February, despite drop in gasoline prices. Used vehicle prices continued to surge.

Kohl’s Spirals into Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown, Blames “Constrained” Consumers, but it’s Just Losing them to Ecommerce, which is Booming

by Wolf Richter • Mar 11, 2025 • 103 Comments

The stock plunged 24% today to lowest since 1997, down 89% from peak, and has joined our Imploded Stocks.

Labor Market Dynamics Tighten Further. Job Openings, Quits, Hires Rise, Layoffs & Discharges Drop, Back Fed’s Wait-and-See

by Wolf Richter • Mar 11, 2025 • 16 Comments

The low point was in September. The Fed faces a scenario of re-accelerating inflation amid a retightening labor market.

Price of Natural Gas Futures Up 140% Year-over-Year: One More Reason for Inflation to Not Back off Easily

by Wolf Richter • Mar 10, 2025 • 99 Comments

Natural gas accounts for 42% of electricity generation. It’s feedstock for fertilizers. It’s widely used for heating. And 19% was exported in 2024.

Why the Fed Considers “Pausing or Slowing” QT “Until the Resolution of the Debt Ceiling Situation”

by Wolf Richter • Mar 8, 2025 • 80 Comments

The minutes mentioned it. New York Fed’s Perli added some background. The Fed will likely provide details at its March meeting.

Federal Government Layoffs & Quits Begin to Show up in the Jobs Data, Barely Dent Solid Labor Market

by Wolf Richter • Mar 7, 2025 • 103 Comments

Civilian employment at the federal government accounts for less than 1.9% of total payrolls.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$54 Billion in February, -$2.21 Trillion from Peak, to $6.76 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020

by Wolf Richter • Mar 6, 2025 • 83 Comments

Quantitative Tightening has shed 25% of total assets from peak and 46% of pandemic QE.

Explosion of Imports Causes Trade Deficit to Spike by 96% in January YoY on Tariff Front-Running

by Wolf Richter • Mar 6, 2025 • 79 Comments

Surge of imports not a sign of weak demand, on the contrary, but imports deduct from GDP.