THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Stocks, Bonds & CRE Face QT by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2023 • 40 Comments Fundamentals for markets have boiled down to QE or QT since 2009. Now there’s QT, a lot of QT, globally, to battle the worst inflation in decades.
Our Drunken Sailors Got Revised and Updated, but They’re Still Partying by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2023 • 76 Comments Income from all sources minus government transfer payments outruns inflation again.
PCE Inflation Index Revised Higher Going Back 2 Years. “Core Services” PCE Price Index Was Much Hotter by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2023 • 48 Comments Fed’s favored inflation measures get a big upward revision going back across this bout of inflation.
Another Recession Indicator Refuses to See a Recession: Corporate Profits without Federal Reserve Banks Hit Record by Wolf Richter • Sep 28, 2023 • 129 Comments Massively inflated during the pandemic, corporate profits are still not normalizing, and bode well for future investments and economic growth.
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too by Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2023 • 132 Comments QE giveth, QT taketh away. The two sucker rallies this year of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index got wiped out.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, September Update: Spring Bounce Fades. 20-City Index -0.6% from Peak in 2022, Flat Year-over-Year by Wolf Richter • Sep 26, 2023 • 144 Comments San Francisco -11% from peak, Seattle -10%, followed by Las Vegas, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Dallas, San Diego, Los Angeles, Tampa.
Prices of New Houses Drop, Sales Drop, Supply Jumps by Wolf Richter • Sep 26, 2023 • 105 Comments Cut the price, and they will not come? Homebuilders, in a tough market, compete with homeowners who are still delusional.
It’s the Smart Money that Took a 77% Loss on Instacart, Not Retail Investors by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2023 • 114 Comments Instacart enters my pantheon of Imploded Stocks.
My “Wealth Disparity Monitor” of the Fed’s Money Printer Era, September 2023: Now There’s Inflation, QT, and Rate Hikes by Wolf Richter • Sep 24, 2023 • 210 Comments It’s just not the same anymore with QT and rate hikes. Household balance sheets by wealth category.
QE Giveth, QT Taketh Away: German Home Prices vs. ECB Balance Sheet by Wolf Richter • Sep 22, 2023 • 142 Comments The QT show started less than a year ago. German home prices -11%, ECB assets -19%.
Treasury Market Gets Memo with Subject Line: “Higher for Longer” but Someone Scribbled next to it, “Maybe Forever?” by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2023 • 167 Comments “Neutral rate” creeping higher? Oh dearie! Bloodbath at the long end.
Demand for Existing Homes Falters Further. Price Cuts, Days on Market, New Listings Rise. Prices Languish below 2022 Peak by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2023 • 194 Comments New listings rose in August, when they normally fall in August, an interesting break in the seasonal pattern.
“Carefully,” Dude: Powell at the Press Conference by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 168 Comments Our drunken sailors “hate inflation, hate it,” and are in a foul mood, but are in good shape and keep spending.
In Very “Hawkish Hold,” Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Sees One More Hike in 2023, Only Two Rate Cuts in 2024, to 5.25%. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 205 Comments The shocker was the infamous “dot plot”: Higher for even longer, ending the year 2024 at 5.25%.
Sign of Tight Labor Market, Strength of Ecommerce: Amazon to Hire 250,000 for Holidays, up from 150,000 Last Year, Boost Wages, Offer Sign-on Bonuses by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 48 Comments While fewer and fewer Americans head to the malls.
Worst “Rent” Inflation since 1983 & Red-Hot Homeownership CPI Fuel Canada’s CPI Surge. Bank of Canada in a Pickle of its Own Making by Wolf Richter • Sep 19, 2023 • 140 Comments Inflation dished up another nasty surprise. Other costs jumped too. Gasoline didn’t help. This was a broad-based mess.
Congrats, America 🥂We Made it! Government Debt Spikes past $33 Trillion: +$1.6 Trillion since Debt Ceiling, +$2.2 Trillion from Year Ago by Wolf Richter • Sep 18, 2023 • 243 Comments Trillions whooshing by so fast they’re hard to see.
Fed’s Cumulative Operating Losses Exceed $100 Billion. Rate of Weekly Losses Begins to Slow as QT Drains RRPs and Reserves by Wolf Richter • Sep 18, 2023 • 41 Comments Not that the losses matter to the Fed, but they matter to the Budget Deficit.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Liabilities: RRPs Plunge, Reserves Rise after Bank Panic, Currency in Circulation Dips after Pandemic Spike, TGA Gets Refilled by Wolf Richter • Sep 16, 2023 • 116 Comments QT’s impact on the Fed’s liabilities, and massive movements between them.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Price Drops Spread amid Slowing Sales, Rising Supply, Bank of Canada Tightening by Wolf Richter • Sep 15, 2023 • 127 Comments The Home Price Benchmark Index is down 13% from peak in March 2022. The Canadian housing market is in a category of its own, in terms of craziness.
