30-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.96% despite “Solid” Auction, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage-Rate Spread Historically Wide

by Wolf Richter • Jul 12, 2025 • 16 Comments

The bond market’s reaction to the inflationary environment, to fears of a lax Fed, and to a Mississippi River of new debt.

Inventory of Homes for Sale Blows Out in Texas, Price Cuts Spike

by Wolf Richter • Jul 11, 2025 • 63 Comments

The situation in Texas and its four big metros, Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio.

Homes for Sale in Florida’s Biggest Markets Rise to Highest in Many Years and Languish as Demand Fizzled

by Wolf Richter • Jul 10, 2025 • 90 Comments

He who panicked first panicked best.

ECB Balance Sheet: QT Assets Drop by €64 Billion in June, by €3.18 Trillion from Peak, to €3.98 Trillion, Lowest since June 2020

by Wolf Richter • Jul 10, 2025 • 25 Comments

It also wrote down its €1 trillion in gold by €30 billion due to its price decline in euros in Q2.

The (Declining) Status of the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify into other Currencies & Gold

by Wolf Richter • Jul 9, 2025 • 97 Comments

There was an extra-special spectacle in Q1 among the Swiss franc, Australian dollar, British pound, and Japanese yen.

Inventories of Homes for Sale in Big California Markets Jump to Highest in Years, Days on the Market Soar, Demand Withered

by Wolf Richter • Jul 8, 2025 • 108 Comments

Listings YoY: Orange County +66%, San Diego +55%, Fresno +48%, Sacramento +47%, Los Angeles +45%, Riverside-San Bernadino +43%, San Jose & Silicon Valley +39%; San Francisco metro +30%.

Used Car & Truck Wholesale Prices Been Rising for a Year, in Part Driven by Surging Prices of Used EVs

by Wolf Richter • Jul 8, 2025 • 35 Comments

Amid tight supply and solid demand.

Bank of Japan Balance Sheet QT: -¥12 Trillion in Q2, -¥39 Trillion from Peak, to ¥717 Trillion. Sold Nearly All its Bank Stocks

by Wolf Richter • Jul 7, 2025 • 28 Comments

Quantitative Tightening accelerated further. With its bank stocks gone, the BOJ may start selling its equity ETFs soon.

The Housing Markets of Europe: From Most Splendid Housing Bubbles to Go-Nowhere Markets

by Wolf Richter • Jul 6, 2025 • 81 Comments

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$13 Billion in June, -$2.31 Trillion from Peak, to $6.66 Trillion. New Milestone: 3 Years of QT

by Wolf Richter • Jul 3, 2025 • 95 Comments

The new and improved Standing Repo Facility (SRF) sprang into action for one day at quarter-end on June 30.

Beneath the Surface of the Employment Report: How Jobs Evolved by Industry over Time, Winners & Losers

by Wolf Richter • Jul 3, 2025 • 26 Comments

The job creation machine is running at a decent pace, unemployment is historically low, but it’s not evenly spread across all industries.

Despite Ugliness at Stellantis, Nissan & Tesla, New Vehicle Sales in Q2 Rose to the Best Q2 since 2021. But June Stalled

by Wolf Richter • Jul 2, 2025 • 112 Comments

Cybertruck may be entering automotive history as the most expensive failed model ever.

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.1% in June, Worse than Financial Crisis Meltdown Peak, after 3-Month Relapse

by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2025 • 90 Comments

A Los Angeles tower, FEMA headquarters in Washington, 100-year-old tower in Manhattan join list; some delinquent loans were “cured,” including by transfer to a custodial receiver and extend and pretend, and came off the list.

Tariff Cash Is Rolling In: June’s Record Take Spikes by $20.5 Billion Year-over-Year

by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2025 • 73 Comments

Businesses have been paying them out of their huge profits and have not been able to pass them on to consumers so far.

Underlying Labor Market Dynamics Are Solid, Recession Stays on the Back Burner

by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2025 • 34 Comments

Companies don’t just suddenly drop everything to stew in their own juices.

Exit from the “Lock-in” Effect Slowed in Q1 as Home Sales Deteriorated Further and Supply Spiked

by Wolf Richter • Jun 30, 2025 • 84 Comments

By the time they finally wanted to sell their home, it wasn’t easy anymore because demand had plunged, and fewer of those mortgages got paid off.

The Historically Wide Spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates Widened Again: Some Thoughts

by Wolf Richter • Jun 28, 2025 • 137 Comments

Mortgage rates, QT, yield spreads, inflation, and a bond market that is not to be trifled with.

That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm

by Wolf Richter • Jun 27, 2025 • 29 Comments

Wages & salaries rose at a solid pace, but Social Security payments returned to trend after a spike in April due to policy changes.

PCE Inflation Accelerates. But Tariffs Haven’t Shown Up Yet: Why the Fed Is in Wait-and-See Mode

by Wolf Richter • Jun 27, 2025 • 71 Comments

The 6-month PCE price index accelerated to 2.8% annualized, despite dropping energy prices. It’s been 2.7% to 3.3% in 2025, sharply higher than in the 2nd half of 2024.

The Corporate-Profit Explosion Stalls in Q1, on the Eve of the New Tariffs

by Wolf Richter • Jun 26, 2025 • 62 Comments

In some industries, profits surged. In others, profits sagged. By major industry.