This Fed Meeting Must Have Been an Epic Circus

by Wolf Richter • Dec 10, 2025 • 33 Comments

Amid 3 dissenters in both directions, FOMC cuts by 25 basis points. “Dot Plot” sees 1 cut next year, 3 members see 1 hike. Reserve management purchases of T-bills begins.

CEO of ICE on Making Mortgages “Portable” & “Assumable” in the Era of MBS, and on AI at ICE and its Impact on Hiring

by Wolf Richter • Dec 10, 2025 • 15 Comments

“I look at our own behavior, which is we’re kind of slow walking some of that kind of hiring now because we’re using these tools.”

Job Openings Jump by 443,000 in 2 Months: Labor Market Retightens, Fed Faces Scenario of Solid Job Market and Accelerating Inflation

by Wolf Richter • Dec 9, 2025 • 53 Comments

7.67 million job openings, highest since May, 2nd highest all year, and up from a year ago.

In Edgy Bond Market, 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3-Month High, 10-Year Yield Hits 1-Month High, Mortgage Rates Jump

by Wolf Richter • Dec 8, 2025 • 79 Comments

The expected rate cut gets complicated: A dovish Fed amid rising inflation can spook the bond market.

The Fed Will Talk a lot about “Reserve Balances” and “Reserve Management Purchases” at its FOMC Meetings

by Wolf Richter • Dec 8, 2025 • 57 Comments

What Are They? And why now?

NAR Says Typical First-Time Homebuyer Age Was 40 in 2025, up from 33 in 2021. But Is this Accurate?

by Wolf Richter • Dec 5, 2025 • 65 Comments

A narrative gets debunked. The affordability crisis remains.

CMBS: “Commercial Mortgage BS”

by John McNellis • Dec 5, 2025 • 36 Comments

“We should have learned our lesson and sworn off CMBS forever”: McNellis, commercial real estate developer.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$37 Billion in November, -$2.43 Trillion from Peak, to $6.54 Trillion

by Wolf Richter • Dec 4, 2025 • 61 Comments

Standing Repo Facility at zero, after doing its job calming the repo market at month-end. QT ended on December 1, but in November, QT continued.

Low-Fire Low-Hire Job Market, after Massive Overhiring by Big Tech & Others in 2021 & 2022

by Wolf Richter • Dec 4, 2025 • 61 Comments

But today’s initial unemployment insurance claims were a doozie that’ll reverse next week.

Private-Sector Job Trends by Industry: From Job Destruction in “Information” to Job Creation in “Mining & Natural Resources”

by Wolf Richter • Dec 3, 2025 • 55 Comments

Three-month average job creation dips into negative for the first time since 2020, per ADP data.

Services Inflation Accelerates Further in the Euro Area, Drives Overall & Core CPI Higher

by Wolf Richter • Dec 2, 2025 • 20 Comments

Services inflation was on the ECB’s worry-list when it kept rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row.

Mortgage Rates, 10-Year & 30-Year Treasury Yields Jump, Wiping out in One Day the Entire Drop of Last Week

by Wolf Richter • Dec 2, 2025 • 118 Comments

The bond market went back to work on Monday.

Manufacturing Grew for 10th Month of 11 in 2025: S&P. Manufacturing Declined for 9th Month Straight: ISM. What Gives?

by Wolf Richter • Dec 1, 2025 • 19 Comments

What even are these manufacturing PMIs?

Mortgage Rates Are Not Too High. What’s too High Are Home Prices that Exploded by 40-70% in 2 Years, Creating the “Affordability Crisis”

by Wolf Richter • Nov 29, 2025 • 178 Comments

But there is a solution to this affordability crisis.

New Vehicle Inflation: the “WOLF STREET Ford F-150 XLT & Toyota Camry LE Price Index” Going back to 1990 v. CPI

by Wolf Richter • Nov 28, 2025 • 112 Comments

Now updated with the prices for the 2026 model year.

Amazing How Central Bank Money-Printing Reversed around the World after the Inflation Shock

by Wolf Richter • Nov 27, 2025 • 80 Comments

Balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and central banks of China, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and India as % of GDP.

Despite their Ultra-Sour Mood, Americans Splurge at Restaurants & Bars like There’s No Tomorrow

by Wolf Richter • Nov 26, 2025 • 170 Comments

Far outdistancing inflation and blowing by food & beverage stores.

PPI Inflation Bounces Back

by Wolf Richter • Nov 25, 2025 • 23 Comments

Food and energy prices spiked in the delayed Producer Price Index for September.

AI-Spending War and AI-Debt Pile-Up Could Squeeze Share Buybacks

by Wolf Richter • Nov 24, 2025 • 95 Comments

Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, and Nvidia spent $1.1 trillion on share buybacks in 5 years to pump up their shares. That’s at risk.

The 14 Bigger Cities & Counties with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -25%) from Peak to October

by Wolf Richter • Nov 23, 2025 • 49 Comments

Oakland, Austin, New Orleans, Manhattan, Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers), Sarasota County, San Francisco, Birmingham, Washington DC, Denver, Phoenix, Contra Costa County…