“Leading Economic Index” Predicts Recession for Early 2024, after Having Predicted a Recession for Late 2022, Early 2023, Mid-2023, and Late 2023 by Wolf Richter • Nov 20, 2023 • 157 Comments And there’s Still No Recession!
My Favorite Recession Indicator: No Recession in Sight Yet by Wolf Richter • Oct 19, 2023 • 129 Comments There will be a recession someday, there’s always one eventually. But not yet.
New Vehicle Sales +20% in Q3 YoY. Pent-Up Demand Comes Home to Roost. Our Drunken Sailors in No Mood for a Recession by Wolf Richter • Oct 4, 2023 • 143 Comments Average listing price rose 2.2% to $47,417. The strikes, if they drag on, could squeeze inventories, which would pressure prices again.
My Favorite Recession Indicator: The Next Recession Moves Further out of Sight by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2023 • 221 Comments There will be a recession, there’s always a recession eventually. But we’ll just have to keep watching for it.
Americans Still in No Mood for Recession: New Vehicle Sales Jump 17.5% in Q2 YoY as Inventories Normalize after Shortages by Wolf Richter • Jul 6, 2023 • 88 Comments Incentives jump but still below normal. Average Transaction Price and Average Listing Price stuck at ridiculous levels.
Waiting for the Promised Recession: Economic Growth even Stronger than Feared, Treasury Yields Spike by Wolf Richter • Jun 29, 2023 • 218 Comments The Fed has jacked up interest rates to over 5% to slow down this circus, and instead we’re getting accelerated growth.
Stocks Open Eyes, See Fed Pivot Hawkish; ECB Hike into Recession, Start QT; BoE Hike into Recession; SNB Hike, Sell Foreign Currency Assets by Wolf Richter • Dec 15, 2022 • 149 Comments ECB’s assets drop by €800 billion. Mexico hiked too today, way ahead of the Fed, keeps peso from falling against USD.
New Vehicle Sales Down 19% in Q3 v. Q3 2019, Due to Shortages: I Estimate the Piggybank of Unmet Demand for a Recession by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2022 • 85 Comments Very different from prior recessions when the industry was caught with huge inventories and large production runs.
Recession Mongers Shocked & Horrified by this Surge in Employment by Wolf Richter • Aug 5, 2022 • 165 Comments They’re praying for a recession to “force” the Fed to pivot. But it’s tough to have an official recession with employment growing, wages surging.
Powell Puts 75-Basis-Point Hike on Table for Sept, Fed “Determined” to Get Inflation Down, Come Heck or High Water: Most Hawkish FOMC Press Conference I Ever Watched by Wolf Richter • Jul 27, 2022 • 363 Comments “People at the lower income spectrum are suffering from high inflation”: Seems Powell wants markets to come out of denial.
