178 search results for "recession watch"

Calamity Economy Rearing its Ugly Head Again?

by Wolf Richter •  • Comments Off on Calamity Economy Rearing its Ugly Head Again?

“Despite all of the rhetoric to the contrary, it looks like the air got let out of the balloon,” commented the members of the Survey Panel of the ISM-Chicago Business Survey; the closely watched numbers had suddenly taken a turn for the worse. But the phenomenon wasn’t limited to the Chicago area. And now there are real reasons for concern.

Plot Twist While French Businesses Are Dying

by Wolf Richter •  • Comments Off on Plot Twist While French Businesses Are Dying

France, tangled up in a presidential election with major implications for the Eurozone, has gotten used to watching President Sarkozy getting clobbered in a historic fashion by socialist Hollande. But on Tuesday, the country woke up to the news—quelle horreur—that their presumed loser was suddenly ahead in the polls. Amidst this chaos, two fundamental cross currents in the French economy went practically unnoticed, though they should have caused an outburst of national soul searching.

The Previously Unthinkable Becomes A Planned Event

by Wolf Richter •  • Comments Off on The Previously Unthinkable Becomes A Planned Event

Governments and companies around the world have been preparing for a collapse of the Eurozone—simple prudence requires them to do that. Theoretical exercises for a hypothetical scenario, they call it. But recently, these theoretical exercises have taken on practical overtones. And even the public is now encouraged to prepare for the demise of the euro.

Political Realities Threaten To Split The Eurozone

by Wolf Richter •  • Comments Off on Political Realities Threaten To Split The Eurozone

Sarkozy will be the only French president since World War II with two recessions under his belt, if current forecasts are correct. Recessions are rare in France: between the war and the financial crisis, there were two. Against this backdrop, Sarkozy faces a tough reelection campaign. And front runner François Hollande has vowed to oppose the German dictate on how to save the Eurozone. So it might all unravel.

Economic Devil Is In The Details

by Wolf Richter •  • Comments Off on Economic Devil Is In The Details

According to last week’s GDP number, the economy has been growing supposedly at a rate of 2.5% in the third quarter—thanks largely to the inexplicable American consumer, the toughest creature out there. But there are some pernicious trends and unpleasant zigzags that point the opposite way.

Oh No, The Inventory Correction Is Confirmed

by Wolf Richter •  • Comments Off on Oh No, The Inventory Correction Is Confirmed

Awful economic data and corporate announcements confirm: orders are plummeting, the dreaded inventory correction is here, and a recession is now guaranteed. In our already miserable economy, this is going to be a rough ride. Fasten your seatbelt.

Swiss Franc Wreaks Havoc In Switzerland

by Wolf Richter •  • Comments Off on Swiss Franc Wreaks Havoc In Switzerland

The run-up of the Swiss franc entailed a stock-market crash, gigantic hits to wealth invested overseas, and big losses in Swiss pension funds. Companies are reeling. Layoffs and a recession are next. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) flooded the market with francs, intervened in the currency markets, and forced real interest rates into negative territory. Without much success.

Oops, Inventory Correction

by Wolf Richter •  • Comments Off on Oops, Inventory Correction

We really don’t need this. First it was rumors, now it has been announced in an earnings call. Two harmless sounding words: inventory correction. In a healthy economy, it causes a run-of-the-mill business cycle recession. In our economy, it can get ugly. Watch out, second half.