Friday’s plunge in consumer sentiment was hastily ascribed to the Fiscal Cliff. Like Sandy, it’s recruited to explain everything that goes wrong. But over the last few days, one monkey wrench after another has been thrown into the hope machinery, including the collapse of small-business hiring plans to the record low set during the catastrophic post-Lehman days.
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From Horrid To Merely Dismal: Feeling Better About The New Reality
by Wolf Richter • • Comments Off on From Horrid To Merely Dismal: Feeling Better About The New Reality
The inexplicable American consumer, the strongest creature out there that no one has been able to subdue yet, has come to grips with a new reality, euphemistically called “New Normal,” though it isn’t normal by any means, but dismal. Feeling more upbeat, they nudged up the Consumer Confidence Index to a level not seen since February 2008—a level that caused people to tear their hair out at the time.
Fear of Impending Economic Collapse Or Just Manipulation?
by Wolf Richter • • 1 Comment
Two thermometers into the brains of corporate America plunged to depth not seen since the trough of the Great Recession when the US was losing hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. One was based on responses from CEOs of America’s largest corporations; the other was based on responses from analysts who’d listened to their industry contacts. Just before Lehman, these people had exactly zero predictive capabilities. So, could they now have ulterior motives?
Fear Mongering And Hysteria About The Fiscal Cliff
by Wolf Richter • • Comments Off on Fear Mongering And Hysteria About The Fiscal Cliff
It’s been a phenomenal circus, the screaming and hollering on all sides about the “fiscal cliff,” in the media, from lawmakers, from chieftains of our industries, particularly those that feed at the government’s big trough, such as defense contractors, which include some of the largest global corporations. Even NPR this morning postulated that it would cause a million job losses. Hysteria comes to mind.
The German Economy Caves, And Eurozone Bailouts Take On New Dimensions
by Wolf Richter • • 1 Comment
Last year, German exports rode to a new record, jobs were being created in massive numbers, real wages rose, housing and real estate boomed, the federal budget was nearly balanced, and consumers felt good and spent money. There were moments in 2012 that made people dream of a repeat performance—despite the havoc that the Eurozone debt crisis has been wreaking. But now, the German export machinery is shifting down with an ear-piercing screech.
The Extortion Racket Shifts To Italy
by Wolf Richter • • 2 Comments
One thing Greek politicians have taught other European leaders: fear mongering for the purpose of extortion is the way to go. It might not work, and it might be counterproductive, and it might destroy confidence in the economy and give investors goose bumps and blow up markets, and it might cause spooked consumers to hold back on purchases and worried businesses to freeze hiring plans, thus exacerbating the situation, but it’s nevertheless the way to go.
Relying on Fake German Strength
by Wolf Richter • • 6 Comments
While we’re sitting on the edge of our chairs, waiting breathlessly for the Greek election, or for Fate to swallow Greece and send financial Armageddon over the Eurozone, stock markets rallied. Not because of a sudden plethora of good economic news, but in anticipation of how central banks might react to the Greek vote—that’s how far this farce has come! As if sheer artificial liquidity could wash away the putrid odor of decomposing debt.
Squeezing The Fed From Both Sides
by Wolf Richter • • Comments Off on Squeezing The Fed From Both Sides
The ugly jobs report gave Mitt Romney what he’d been waiting for: a huge boost. He’s out making hay, calling it “devastating news for American workers and families.” An army of Republican talking heads swarmed over the land and pummeled President Obama with the jobs report. And just as Republicans see victory edge closer, shrill voices are calling for the Fed to launch the next round of quantitative easing. Collision alert!
Calamity Economy Rearing its Ugly Head Again?
by Wolf Richter • • Comments Off on Calamity Economy Rearing its Ugly Head Again?
“Despite all of the rhetoric to the contrary, it looks like the air got let out of the balloon,” commented the members of the Survey Panel of the ISM-Chicago Business Survey; the closely watched numbers had suddenly taken a turn for the worse. But the phenomenon wasn’t limited to the Chicago area. And now there are real reasons for concern.
Plot Twist While French Businesses Are Dying
by Wolf Richter • • Comments Off on Plot Twist While French Businesses Are Dying
France, tangled up in a presidential election with major implications for the Eurozone, has gotten used to watching President Sarkozy getting clobbered in a historic fashion by socialist Hollande. But on Tuesday, the country woke up to the news—quelle horreur—that their presumed loser was suddenly ahead in the polls. Amidst this chaos, two fundamental cross currents in the French economy went practically unnoticed, though they should have caused an outburst of national soul searching.