A report from the asset management and investment banking division of Groupe BPCE, the second largest bank in France, predicts what daredevil voices at the maligned margin of financial analysis have worried about for a while: another global financial panic.
“Biotech Stocks’ Rout Perplexes Analysts” the WSJ headlined the phenomenon, as analysts continue to hype this stuff to small investors. But hedge funds are dumping stocks, and private equity firms are dumping their LBOs. That’s the Smart Money. They’re getting out.
It “tried to keep its rewards and shed its responsibilities by playing a corporate shell game, putting its oil-and-gas business in a new entity and leaving behind a bankrupt shell” with environmental liabilities of defunct, polluting businesses.
“Why worry if the price can only go up” – Societe Generale’s Head of Quantitative Equity Research. Now even after companies cut earnings-per-share estimates, their stocks go up. Because everyone believes that everyone believes that….
Sunday, when no one was supposed to pay attention, PayPal sent its account holders an innocuous-sounding email with the artfully bland title, “Notice of Policy Updates.” PayPal didn’t want people to read it – lest they think the NSA is by comparison a group of choirboys.
Margin debt is a crummy predictor of a crash. But it has a bone-chilling habit of peaking right around the time stocks do crash. In the last fifteen years, it spiked three times: during the final throes of the bubbles that imploded in 2000 and 2007; and now.
What can possibly go wrong with stocks these days? Five years of the Fed’s QE and zero-interest-rate policy, and look what happened: risks no longer exist. They’ve been priced out of the equation. But now the illusion is ending.
When BlackRock CEO Larry Fink grumbled about “way too much optimism” in the markets, he wasn’t kidding. An entire mindset is benchmarking today’s record metrics against the splendor of 2000 and 2007: not to warn, but to prove that this time it won’t end in tears.
Shell is already steeped in its Alaska offshore debacle. Now its new boss admitted that fracking in the US, after a huge investment, is a money-losing business.
I’m a coffee lover, and this is getting personal: our latte, espresso, or just plain good coffee is going to bite fiercely into our already mauled pocket book. In one crazy chart.