Prices of New Houses -15% from Peak on High Inventories. Sales Held Up with Lower Prices & Massive Mortgage-Rate Buydowns by Wolf Richter • Oct 25, 2023 • 153 Comments What homebuilder PulteGroup said about mortgage-rate buydowns. Homebuilders have figured out this market, homeowners have not.
Social Security Update: Trust Fund, Income, Outgo, and Deficit in Fiscal 2023 by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2023 • 109 Comments Contributions jumped 11.8% (more people working, big pay increases). Outgo jumped 12.0% (more people at retirement age and the 8.7% COLA).
Subprime Auto-Loan Delinquencies Hit Record, Prime Loans Are Pristine, after Easy Money Ends: The High-Risk High-Profit Business of Subprime Auto Lending by Wolf Richter • Oct 22, 2023 • 110 Comments What makes it work: Securitizing subprime auto loans and selling the Asset-Backed Securities to yield-hungry investors.
30-Year Treasury Yield Spikes past 5%, 30-year mortgage rates hit 8%, Mortgage Applications Plunge by Wolf Richter • Oct 18, 2023 • 231 Comments Bond Bloodbath, Housing Market in Deep-Freeze, as delusions fade.
“Rent” Inflation in Canada Spikes to Highest since 1983, amid Spike in Population. Homeownership CPI Remains Red-Hot by Wolf Richter • Oct 18, 2023 • 76 Comments Prices eased in other categories.
Acceleration of Inflation Continues, Core Services Inflation Spikes despite the Massive Health-Insurance Adjustment by Wolf Richter • Oct 12, 2023 • 266 Comments This was the last of 12 health insurance adjustments that pushed down core CPI and core services CPI; it will swing the other way next month.
My Take on What QT Has Done to Stocks, Bonds, Commercial Real Estate (Lots of Bloodletting) & What it’ll Do Going Forward by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2023 • 215 Comments Fundamentals boiled down to QE or QT since 2009. Now there’s lots of QT, globally, to battle the worst inflation in decades.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.0 Trillion from Peak, to $7.96 Trillion, Lowest since June 2021. In September Alone -$146 billion by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2023 • 111 Comments Dual milestone: down $1 trillion & below $8 trillion. Fed shed 26% of Treasuries it had added during pandemic QE.
PCE Inflation Index Revised Higher Going Back 2 Years. “Core Services” PCE Price Index Was Much Hotter by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2023 • 52 Comments Fed’s favored inflation measures get a big upward revision going back across this bout of inflation.
Another Recession Indicator Refuses to See a Recession: Corporate Profits without Federal Reserve Banks Hit Record by Wolf Richter • Sep 28, 2023 • 136 Comments Massively inflated during the pandemic, corporate profits are still not normalizing, and bode well for future investments and economic growth.
