Banks’ Exposure to CRE Loans by Bank Size by Wolf Richter • Apr 13, 2024 • 80 Comments When CRE hits investors, fine, they were paid to take those risks. But we’re a little more squeamish when it comes to banks.
Bank of Canada Balance Sheet QT Sheds 64% of Pandemic QE Assets, Indicates QT Might End in September 2025 by Wolf Richter • Apr 7, 2024 • 53 Comments “Balance sheet normalization” will continue even if the BoC cuts its rates. It’s all about “settlement balances.”
ECB Balance Sheet QT: -€2.2 Trillion from Peak, to €6.61 Trillion. Shed 25% of Total Assets, 53% of Pandemic QE by Wolf Richter • Apr 7, 2024 • 38 Comments Fed and ECB combined removed $4 trillion in liquidity. Inflation, after decades of calm, is hammering some sense into these central banks.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.53 Trillion from Peak, to $7.44 Trillion, Lowest since February 2021. The BTFP Plunged by $34 Billion by Wolf Richter • Apr 4, 2024 • 137 Comments Quantitative Tightening has removed 37% of Treasury securities and 27% of MBS that pandemic QE had added.
How the Huge Wave of Immigrants into the US in 2022 and 2023 Impacts the Employment Data of the BLS Household Survey by Wolf Richter • Apr 3, 2024 • 112 Comments The BLS uses the Census Bureau’s understated population estimates that ignore the surge of immigrants. But the CBO’s estimates pick them up.
Office CRE Mess Keeps Getting Worse, Massive Repricing Underway by Wolf Richter • Apr 1, 2024 • 95 Comments It’ll take years to get this mess cleaned up, at the expense of investors, landlords, and banks.
Curse of Easy Money: US Government Interest Payments on the Ballooning Debt v. Tax Receipts, Higher Interest Rates, Inflation by Wolf Richter • Mar 31, 2024 • 201 Comments Biggest Drunken Sailors of all. Average interest rate on the Treasury debt spiked but is still only half of what it was in 2001.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March 2024 Update: Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Dallas, Las Vegas by Wolf Richter • Mar 26, 2024 • 159 Comments 20-City Index drops for 3rd month in a row, forms Double Top. Only Washington DC sets new all-time high.
The Fed’s Liabilities: How Far Can QT Go? What’s the Lowest Possible Level of the Balance Sheet without Blowing Stuff Up? by Wolf Richter • Mar 23, 2024 • 242 Comments No one knows, not even Fed, but here is our guess: $5.8 trillion, limited by the liabilities.
What Powell Said About Slowing the Pace of QT: “By Going Slower, You Can Get Farther” by Wolf Richter • Mar 20, 2024 • 158 Comments They learned a lesson from the mess in 2019, which Powell referred to several times.
