But What If We Don’t Get a Recession in 2023? That Would Be a Bummer for Wall Street by Wolf Richter • Apr 19, 2023 • 229 Comments Just a slower-growth muddle-through economy that adjusts to higher rates and sticky inflation.
What Would Happen if the Fed Caves to 4%-5% Core PCE Inflation, Gives up on 2%, as some Folks are Clamoring For? by Wolf Richter • Apr 16, 2023 • 349 Comments The economy would muddle through, but in the markets, all heck would break loose. Here’s why.
Turning Point: CPI Used Vehicles Jumps for First Time since July “Not Seasonally Adjusted,” Tracks Wholesale Price Surge with Two-Month Lag by Wolf Richter • Apr 13, 2023 • 96 Comments The historic plunge in used vehicle retail prices from utterly absurd highs may have ended already.
CPI for Services Rages, Durable Goods Prices Rise Again after 6 Months of Declines. Food Inflation Backs Off, Energy Plunges by Wolf Richter • Apr 12, 2023 • 193 Comments Housing inflation is peaking at 8%-plus.
Services Inflation Rages at Worst Rate since 1984, Keeps “Core PCE” (Fed’s Yardstick) in High Range. Energy & Goods Cool by Wolf Richter • Mar 31, 2023 • 183 Comments PCE inflation measures: Services — nearly two-thirds of consumer spending — that’s where the inflation action is.
Services Inflation Rages at Four-Decade High: Fueled by Rents, Auto Insurance, Repairs, Airfares, Hotels, Pet Services, Food Services, Delivery by Wolf Richter • Mar 14, 2023 • 228 Comments But durable goods prices drop, energy inflation eases, food inflation is less bad.
Used-Vehicle Auction Prices Jump for Third Month, after Last Year’s Plunge. More Trouble Brewing for “Core” CPI by Wolf Richter • Mar 7, 2023 • 82 Comments Retail supply of used cars and trucks dropped for second month in a row. Dealers bid up prices to replenish their inventories.
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Drops Below Average for First Time since Aug. 2019, after Horrendous Spikes by Wolf Richter • Mar 6, 2023 • 112 Comments Inflation in goods normalized, but has exploded in services where there are no supply chain issues.
Inflation Dishes Up Another Nasty Surprise: Eurozone Core CPI without Energy Spikes to Record, Services CPI Spikes to Record by Wolf Richter • Mar 2, 2023 • 102 Comments What it looks like when inflation gets deeply entrenched in the broad economy, even as energy inflation backs off.
Least Geeky Explanation Ever of Differences Between CPI and PCE Price Index which the Fed Uses as Yardstick by Wolf Richter • Feb 27, 2023 • 55 Comments OK, “least geeky ever,” I mean I don’t know that, but you get the idea. Fed governor Jefferson outlines the differences in a lecture at Harvard.
