Highest-Ever Treasury Short Positioning by Hedge Funds into Last Week Was “Accident Waiting to Happen,” Massive Short-Covering Ensued, Pushed Down Yields. “Basis Trade” at it Again by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2023 • 97 Comments But now, the 10-year yield jumps 15 basis points from Friday. Short-covering has run its course?
Anything Unusual in the Drop of the 10-year Treasury Yield? Despite the Hype & Hoopla, it Hasn’t Done Anything Special by Wolf Richter • Nov 2, 2023 • 88 Comments Volatility. Powell mentioned it too. The 10-year yield is hugely volatile, and the drop over the past few days fits right in. Have a look.
Tsunami of Treasury Issuance Will Shift from Longer-Term Debt to Short-Term T-Bills & 2-Year Notes amid Intense Navel-Gazing about Spiking 10-Year Yield. by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2023 • 59 Comments The Spiking 10-Year Treasury Yields Apparently Rattled the Government’s Nerves.
Spectacle Ensues after 10-Year Treasury Yield Pierces 5%: Huge Demand Piles in, Yield Plunges 19 Basis Points in Hours by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2023 • 119 Comments Yield fixes all demand problems. You just have to hit the right number, and the right number today was 5%.
Why Longer-Dated Treasury Yields Spiked. It’s Not Magic: Yield Solves All Demand Problems by Wolf Richter • Oct 20, 2023 • 254 Comments Tsunami of issuance meets Fed QT, Skittish Foreign Buyers, and US buyers demanding to be compensated for the risks of out-of-control deficits in an inflationary environment.
30-Year Treasury Yield Spikes past 5%, 30-year mortgage rates hit 8%, Mortgage Applications Plunge by Wolf Richter • Oct 18, 2023 • 231 Comments Bond Bloodbath, Housing Market in Deep-Freeze, as delusions fade.
My Take on What QT Has Done to Stocks, Bonds, Commercial Real Estate (Lots of Bloodletting) & What it’ll Do Going Forward by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2023 • 215 Comments Fundamentals boiled down to QE or QT since 2009. Now there’s lots of QT, globally, to battle the worst inflation in decades.
20-Year Treasury Yield Spikes to 5.13%. Yield Curve Gets Ready to Uninvert. Juicy Yields Tempt, but Bloodbath May Not Be Over by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2023 • 133 Comments “Fed hikes till something breaks.” But honey, the biggest thing has already broken: price stability. And the Fed is trying to fix it.
Treasury Market Gets Memo with Subject Line: “Higher for Longer” but Someone Scribbled next to it, “Maybe Forever?” by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2023 • 167 Comments “Neutral rate” creeping higher? Oh dearie! Bloodbath at the long end.
Investment-Grade Corporate Giants Suddenly Sell Huge Amounts of Debt to Front-Run even Higher Long-Term Yields by Wolf Richter • Sep 11, 2023 • 175 Comments Further pressuring long-term Treasury yields, amid fears of bad inflation “surprises.” Share buybacks a lot more expensive, but no problem either.
