Everything Bubble

Why Longer-Dated Treasury Yields Spiked. It’s Not Magic: Yield Solves All Demand Problems

by Wolf Richter • Oct 20, 2023 • 254 Comments

Tsunami of issuance meets Fed QT, Skittish Foreign Buyers, and US buyers demanding to be compensated for the risks of out-of-control deficits in an inflationary environment.

30-Year Treasury Yield Spikes past 5%, 30-year mortgage rates hit 8%, Mortgage Applications Plunge

by Wolf Richter • Oct 18, 2023 • 231 Comments

Bond Bloodbath, Housing Market in Deep-Freeze, as delusions fade.

My Take on What QT Has Done to Stocks, Bonds, Commercial Real Estate (Lots of Bloodletting) & What it’ll Do Going Forward

by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2023 • 215 Comments

Fundamentals boiled down to QE or QT since 2009. Now there’s lots of QT, globally, to battle the worst inflation in decades.

20-Year Treasury Yield Spikes to 5.13%. Yield Curve Gets Ready to Uninvert. Juicy Yields Tempt, but Bloodbath May Not Be Over

by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2023 • 133 Comments

“Fed hikes till something breaks.” But honey, the biggest thing has already broken: price stability. And the Fed is trying to fix it.

Treasury Market Gets Memo with Subject Line: “Higher for Longer” but Someone Scribbled next to it, “Maybe Forever?”

by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2023 • 167 Comments

“Neutral rate” creeping higher? Oh dearie! Bloodbath at the long end.

Investment-Grade Corporate Giants Suddenly Sell Huge Amounts of Debt to Front-Run even Higher Long-Term Yields

by Wolf Richter • Sep 11, 2023 • 175 Comments

Further pressuring long-term Treasury yields, amid fears of bad inflation “surprises.” Share buybacks a lot more expensive, but no problem either.

After some Wavering, Corporate Bond Market Adjusts to Tightest Monetary Policies in Decades and Returns to La-La-Land

by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2023 • 67 Comments

Record QT and big Rate Hikes no problem: Corporate Bond Market Distress Index drops to lowest level since before the Fed started tightening.

Mortgage Rates Adjust to New Era, Jump to Highest since 2001. Long-Term Treasury Market Slowly Coming out of Denial

by Wolf Richter • Aug 24, 2023 • 184 Comments

The new era of “higher for much longer.” The 40-year bond & mortgage bull market died in late 2020.

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Hits 15-Year High, Market Wades out of Denial, Sees “Higher-for-Longer,” Tsunami of Issuance, QT

by Wolf Richter • Aug 16, 2023 • 205 Comments

“Higher for longer be damned”: consumers and businesses.

What Consumers Earn in Interest Income vs. What they Pay in Interest Expense

by Wolf Richter • Aug 14, 2023 • 174 Comments

One reason why the drunken sailors are in no mood to slow down. Lots of them make a lot more money on T-bills, CDs, money-market funds. Others pay more.

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