Recession Watch: My Favorite Recession Indicator, Mid-June Update by Wolf Richter • Jun 12, 2025 • 118 Comments It says: “Not yet,” and “Quite a ways to go.” This trend has reversed before, but if it doesn’t and instead picks up momentum… Time to keep an eye on it.
Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 101 Comments Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
Recession Watch: This Labor Market is Not There Yet, Nor Are Consumers by Wolf Richter • Aug 25, 2022 • 183 Comments Over the decades, recessions were preceded by spikes in unemployment claims. We keep our eyes on them as the recession watch has begun.
Recession Watch: US Freight Drops to Worst Level since 2010, “Excess of Capacity” Crushes Rates by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2016 • 12 Comments “Overall shipment volumes are persistently weak.”
Recession Watch: Freight Volume Drops, Worst Level since 2010 by Wolf Richter • May 14, 2016 • 57 Comments Inventory glut, lousy consumer demand, weak global economy…
Recession Watch: Inventory Glut, Iffy Consumer Demand Sink US Freight Volume by Wolf Richter • Apr 19, 2016 • 21 Comments Worst March, worst first quarter since 2010.
Recession Watch: Hidden Messages in the Jobs Report by Larry Kummer • Dec 4, 2015 • 5 Comments Slowness of the recovery is its most amazing characteristic.
Recession Watch: Falling Commodity Prices to Hurt America by Larry Kummer • Nov 24, 2015 • 9 Comments Leading indicator of trade, economic growth, and geopolitical instability.
Recession Watch: Turning Point in Unemployment Claims? by Larry Kummer • Nov 19, 2015 • 5 Comments A new era has begun for the US and global economy.
Underlying Labor Market Dynamics Are Solid, Recession Stays on the Back Burner by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2025 • 34 Comments Companies don’t just suddenly drop everything to stew in their own juices.
