America might start a downturn from a position of weakness unique since WW2.
This is what’s not happening in the housing market: young people buying homes — even though there are falling mortgage costs and rising rents.
The American Dream? Not for millennials.
Rents and housing costs make up 30% of the Consumer Price Index. They’re its largest component. They’re soaring in real life. But not in the CPI.
Sweet Spot: Homes above $15 million.
Something has to give. And it’s not going to be the maxed-out American middle class.
The magic mix becomes toxic.
Not everyone is irrationally exuberant.
Housing Bubble 2: ballooning inventories of new single-family homes.
Profit grows on trimmed trees, freshly painted walls, and rehabbed bathrooms, and flipping volume soars, and nothing can go wrong. Then something goes wrong.