And this was during the summer rally as mortgage rates dropped to 5%, stocks bounced, the Fed “pivoted,” and the Good Times started all over again.
The purpose of MBS purchases was to repress mortgage rates and inflate home prices. That process has already started to reverse.
#Phoenix builder: “The positive is there’s light at the end of the tunnel for improving build cycle times. The negative is there won’t be customers on the other side of said tunnel.”
Mortgage volume collapsed. And the stocks of the biggest mortgage lenders collapsed after IPO or SPAC merger.
The Case-Shiller index, which lags 4-6 months, is starting to pick up the price drops in Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, Denver, and Portland.
Forget “housing shortage.” It’s about crazy prices: For sales to revive at these mortgage rates, prices have to come down a lot, and they’re starting to.
San Francisco & Silicon Valley lead. Southern California catching up. In Los Angeles, prices fell in July from June for the first since Adam and Eve.
Buyers moseyed away from sky-high prices but are still there, just a lot lower, while many sellers hang on to illusions.
The property became a headache, rather than a place where you can build your dreams. My problem isn’t unique.
Starts: Single-family houses: -18.8% year-over-year; larger multifamily buildings: +15.9%. Here are the long-term trends.