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It works until it doesn’t. Now all eyes are on housing (transcript).
But condo prices in the San Francisco Bay Area fell year-over-year again, and in New York City have been flat for years.
This may be the most distorted and perverse housing market ever.
Forbearance Effect: Serious delinquencies of mortgages & student loans plunge to record lows because delinquent loans in forbearance don’t count as delinquent.
The state lost 182,000 people in 2020, but added 100,000 homes, for 270,000 people. Los Angeles lost 52,000 people, added 18,000 homes. San Francisco lost 14,800 people, added 4,000 homes.
Irrational behavior by buyers confidently betting on being able to pass on that irrationality to their customers. It works until it doesn’t.
The US rental market has been thrown into turmoil. But in no major city have rents plunged from so high by so much so fast as in San Francisco.
The winner in these crazy bidding wars isn’t the buyer. It’s the seller. For buyers, it’s a Perfect Time to make a Terrible Deal (transcript).
Only exception: San Francisco Bay Area condo prices, down from year ago.