Treasury Market Comes Out of Denial, Grapples with “Higher-for-Longer,” QT, Flood of New Issuance. Long-Term Yields Jump by Wolf Richter • Jul 8, 2023 • 212 Comments Denial works great until it doesn’t.
The Long View of Job Growth by Industry: Some Gained Jobs; at Others, Jobs Got Crushed by Wolf Richter • Jul 7, 2023 • 70 Comments To shed some additional light on the jobs report.
Landing Still Cancelled: Labor Market Cruises through Updrafts and Air Pockets by Wolf Richter • Jul 7, 2023 • 131 Comments But all the breathless layoff-hype in the media scared workers and tamped down on wage growth.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops $667 Billion fr. Peak to $8.3 Trillion, Below Aug 2021, as QT Continues, Bank Panic Support Unwinds by Wolf Richter • Jul 6, 2023 • 145 Comments The Fed has now shed 20.5% of Treasury securities it had bought during pandemic QE.
Americans Still in No Mood for Recession: New Vehicle Sales Jump 17.5% in Q2 YoY as Inventories Normalize after Shortages by Wolf Richter • Jul 6, 2023 • 88 Comments Incentives jump but still below normal. Average Transaction Price and Average Listing Price stuck at ridiculous levels.
ECB Balance Sheet Plunged by €1.6 Trillion (-18%) from Peak. Bond Roll-Off Speeds Up by Wolf Richter • Jul 5, 2023 • 85 Comments Spooked by relentlessly raging inflation in services, ECB puts QT into higher gear.
CRE Nightmare for CMBS Holders: Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Has Biggest Six-Month Spike Ever. It’s just the Beginning by Wolf Richter • Jul 5, 2023 • 133 Comments And it’s structural. Variable-rate CRE mortgages and much higher rates just speed up the process.
End of Easy Money: Unicorn Bubble Implodes, Normalcy Returns by Wolf Richter • Jul 4, 2023 • 100 Comments AI hype & hoopla replaces crypto, blockchain, and FinTech hype & hoopla. You’ve got to go with the times.
Construction Spending on US Manufacturing Plants Soars, to De-Globalize Supply Chains? by Wolf Richter • Jul 3, 2023 • 188 Comments The driver: computer, electronic, and electrical manufacturing.
US National Debt Spiked by $851 billion in One Month, to $32.3 Trillion. Flood of New Debt Coming in Q3 to Refill the TGA, Pay for Raging Deficits by Wolf Richter • Jul 2, 2023 • 152 Comments While, for the first time, the Fed’s QT and refilling the government’s checking account (TGA) pull liquidity from the markets simultaneously.
