Not even sky-high gasoline prices could dent their spending on bars & restaurants, ecommerce, cannabis stores, etc.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Gasoline prices soared in August, and consumers continued to buy gasoline, but paid much higher prices, and so sales at gas stations in dollars (not gallons) also soared and pushed up overall retail sales, which spiked by 1.2% in August from July, to $773 billion, seasonally adjusted, and were up by 6.0% year-over-year, according to data from the Census Bureau today.

But even without gas station sales, retail sales spiked by 1.1% seasonally adjusted in August from July, and rose by 4.9% year-over-year.

It’s not all based on Americans suddenly throwing their entire inheritance at retailers. Part of the month-to-month increase in August was due to the effect of recapturing the drop in July that in turn was due to Amazon Prime Day having shifted into June this year, from July last year, made worse by quirky seasonal adjustments, which we discussed at the time, and today’s jump wasn’t a surprise here. But it shows that spending at retailers continues growing at a solid rate, even without gasoline sales, and despite the gasoline price spike.

Ecommerce sales spiked by 2.6% in August from the misbegotten July, and by 10% year-over-year (blue line in the chart below).

July was misbegotten because Amazon Prime Day had shifted into June, from July last year, shifting the spike in sales to June, and then July sales declined from the spike in June, made worse by seasonal adjustments. August sales were back on the normal blistering growth path.

The three-month average irons out those squiggles. It rose by 0.6% in August from July, and by 10% year-over-year.

Ecommerce continues to hit it out of the ballpark, taking share away from brick-and-mortar stores. It has become the #1 category of retailers on a 12-month basis, with a share of 18% of total retail sales, ahead of motor vehicle dealers.

Ecommerce sales include sales by the ecommerce operations of brick-and-mortar retailers, such as Walmart, one of the largest ecommerce operations in the US, Macy’s, Costco, Target, and all the others. Even grocery sales are migrating in more consequential numbers to ecommerce, including to larger regional online-only grocers.

Sales at motor vehicle dealers rose by 0.5% in August from July, and by 1.7% year-over-year, to $130 billion, seasonally adjusted (blue in the chart below).

The three-month average rose by 0.3% month-to-month and by 3.2% year-over-year (red).

Motor vehicle dealers include auto dealers plus dealers of motor cycles, RVs, ATVs, snowmobiles, etc.

They had been the #1 category of retailers for a very long time, but like other retailers, have lost ground to ecommerce and were surpassed by ecommerce during the current 12-month period, and their share dipped to 17% of total retail sales on a 12-month basis.

Sales at restaurants and bars spiked by 1.2% in August from July, to $105 billion, seasonally adjusted, and were up by 5.8% year-over-year (blue).

The three-month average jumped by 0.8% month to month and was up by 5.3% year-over-year (red).

Consumers are splurging on experiences. Sales at these “food services and drinking places” are a barometer of consumer discretionary spending, of doing stuff because they want to, not because they have to, and it has become the #3 largest retailer category with a share of 12% of total retail sales.

Sales at food and beverage stores rose by 0.4% month-to-month and edged up by 0.5% year-over-year, to $86 billion, seasonally adjusted.

The three-month average was flat month-to-month and up by 0.7% year-over-year.

Grocery stores have been getting hit for years from all sides: Sales have migrated to “general merchandise stores,” such as Walmart, now the largest grocery seller in the US, and Costco, which are in the “general merchandise stores” category below. More recently, sales have migrated from brick-and-mortar grocery stores to ecommerce (see above).

Food purchases have also wandered off to restaurants (see above). Spending in restaurants began to exceed spending at food and beverage stores in 2019, and the gap has dramatically widened since then.

And their share has declined to 11.3% of total retail sales. These stores are still the #4 largest category, but are losing ground rapidly to general merchandise retailers and will likely be surpassed by them in a couple of years.

Sales at general merchandise stores rose by 0.7% month-to-month and by 4.5% year-over-year, to $80 billion, seasonally adjusted (blue).

The three-month average rose by 0.4% month-to-month and by 3.9% year-over-year (red).

This #5 category of retailers, with a share of 10.6% of total retail sales, includes the brick-and-mortar operations of Walmart, the largest grocer in the US, and its food sales are included here, and not in sales at “food and beverage stores.”

But it excludes the huge ecommerce operations of general merchandise retailers; they’re included in ecommerce.

Sales at gas stations move in near-lockstep with the price of gasoline. The price of gasoline spiked in August, and so sales at gas stations, measured in dollars not gallons, spiked by 3.1% in August from July, and by 21% year-over-year, to $62 billion, seasonally adjusted.

The chart shows sales at gas stations, seasonally adjusted, in red (left scale), and the CPI for gasoline in blue (right scale).

Sales at building materials, garden supply and equipment stores fell by 0.2% month-to-month to $42 billion, but were up by 5.1% year-over-year (blue).

The three-month average rose by 0.2% month-to-month and by 5.6% year-over-year.

The pandemic boom and then the decline back to long-term trend, and the increase this year is illustrative of the effects of the stimulus payments and lockdowns, combined with soaring prices, when spending on home improvements exploded, followed by a years-long trend back to normal.

Sales at health and personal care stores jumped by 0.9% month-to-month, to $41 billion seasonally adjusted, and were up by 1.9% year-over-year.

The three-month average rose by 0.3% month-to-month, and by 1.1% year-over-year.

Sales at clothing and accessory stores rose by 0.7% month-to-month and by 4.3% year-over-year, to $28 billion.

The three-month average rose by 0.4% month-to-month, and by 4.3% year-over-year.

Sales at miscellaneous store retailers spiked by 1.8% month-to-month and by 14.0% year-over-year, to $17 billion, seasonally adjusted.

The three-month average spiked by 1.1% month-to-month, and by 11.1% year-over-year.

This category includes cannabis stores, which explains the multi-year massive surge in sales.

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