In 9 cities, from Oakland to Jacksonville, condo prices fell by over 20%. In 3 markets in California & Florida, they fell by 30%+.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
In 33 bigger markets, prices of mid-tier condos through July have dropped by 15% to 33% from their respective peaks in prior years. These peaks occurred from 2021 to 2024, with the vast majority occurring in mid-2022. These 33 bigger markets that broke under their own weight are depicted in the charts below.
In nine of them – from Oakland to Jacksonville – prices of mid-tier condos dropped by 21% and more; in three of them by over 30%. These are substantial price declines over a multiyear period.
In six of these 33 markets, condo prices have already dropped below their Housing Bubble 1 peaks of 2006 and are back where they’d been 20 years ago. See the red line in those charts going from the current value straight across to 2005. Those are spooky charts.
- Oakland, CA;
- Sarasota County, FL;
- Cape Coral, FL;
- Contra Costa County (East Bay), CA;
- Fort Myers, FL;
- Orlando, FL.
Two cities moved up into this line-up of 33 markets in July as their condo prices dropped further and pushed them over the -15% line: Houston, TX, and Tempe, AZ. No market that was on the list in June came off the list in July.
In another 37 bigger cities, condo prices have dropped by 8% to 14%. While they don’t have their own chart, they are listed in a table below the charts.
There are also many smaller markets where condo prices have dropped just as much or more, but that are not included here because the markets are too small.
Condos are subject to different dynamics than single-family homes – dynamics that fuel eye-watering booms and massive busts – see the discussion of those dynamics below the charts.
Part of the issue now is the breath-taking two-year price explosion from mid-2020 to mid-2022, which reached 50%, 60%, or even 70% in some cities, that came on top of already high and soaring prices. In the 10 years to the peak, prices had soared by 180% to 350% in these markets. We’re looking at the charts below and are shaking our heads. What were these people thinking, we’re thinking with hindsight.
And these massive condo bubbles have started to deflate relentlessly and some brutally.
Most of the markets here are “cities.” But the list of 33 markets where prices declined by 15% or more includes a few counties where the cities – though household names – are too small to be included individually; and New York County, which is Manhattan where condos are a huge part of the market. It includes one metropolitan statistical area that groups together several smaller cities.
In some densely populated big cities, condos and co-ops make up a big part or the majority of home sales. In most other markets, condos are a relatively small portion of home sales.
Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of “mid-tier” condos and co-ops from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is backward-looking index, based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals.
Historic Condo Bubbles deflate in 33 charts.
The tables for each market below show from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and remaining increase since January 2000.
| Cape Coral, FL, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -33% | -0.3% | -10.6% | 127% |
Prices of mid-tier condos are back to mid-2005. That was 21 years ago.
| Oakland, CA, City, Condo Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -32% | -0.1% | -8.7% | 138% |
Prices are back to where they’d fist been in 2005, but are still very high after the huge run-up in the years before 2022.
| St. Petersburg, Fl, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Oct 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -30% | -0.3% | -9.2% | 176% |
| Austin, TX, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -28% | -0.4% | -5.7% | 102% |
| Fort Myers, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -27% | -0.5% | -10% | 118% |
| Sarasota County, FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -24% | 0% | -6.3% | 129% |
| Garland, TX, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -22% | -0.9% | -12.0% | 201% |
| Tampa, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Sep 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -21% | -0.5% | -8.3% | 244% |
| Jacksonville, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Nov 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -21% | -0.5% | -7.4% | 139% |
| Detroit, MI, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Sep 2021 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -19% | 0.4% | -6.3% | 245% |
| Denver, CO, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -19% | -0.3% | -5.7% | 126% |
| Arlington, TX, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -19% | -1.0% | -5.5% | 222% |
| Aurora, CO, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -19% | -0.7% | -6.9% | 188% |
| Collier County (Naples), FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -19% | -0.1% | -5.1% | 152% |
| Orlando, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jan 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -18% | -0.5% | -7.6% | 145.4% |
| Manhattan (New York County), NY, Condo & Co-Op Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 217% |
| Seattle, WA, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | -0.5% | -4.6% | 127% |
| Hayward, CA, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | -0.5% | -7.8% | 172% |
| Raleigh, NC, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | -0.4% | -8.1% | 130.5% |
| Plano, TX, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Aug 2023 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | -0.7% | -8.2% | 120% |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, MSA, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | -0.5% | -7.6% | 121% |
| Contra Costa County (East Bay), CA, Condo & Co-Op Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | -0.2% | -4.5% | 131% |
The East Bay county comprises Concord, Antioch, Pittsburg, Walnut Creek, Richmond, San Ramon, and many other smaller cities.
| Port Saint Lucie, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | -0.5% | -6.6% | 225.4% |
| Mesa, AZ, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -16% | -0.5% | -4.9% | 194% |
| Fremont, CA, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -16% | -0.6% | -6.4% | 193.3% |
| San Mateo County (Silicon Valley), CA, Condo & Co-op Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -16% | 0.1% | -3.4% | 192% |
San Mateo County comprises lots of smaller cities that make up the northern part of Silicon Valley.
| Portland, OR, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | -0.4% | -3.7% | 104% |
| Chandler, AZ, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | -0.4% | -4.3% | 202.0% |
| Reno, NV, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | 0.1% | -2.7% | 242% |
| Phoenix, AZ, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | -0.4% | -3.8% | 226% |
| Boise, ID, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2001 |
| -15% | -0.3% | -1% | 221% |
| Houston, TX, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Aug 2023 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | -0.4% | -6.3% | 64% |
| Tempe, AZ, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | -0.8% | -5.1% | 155.8% |
A sample of cities where condo prices fell by 8% to 14%.
In many bigger cities, condo prices have dropped by less than 15%, and they weren’t included in the above line-up.
Here is a sample list of 37 bigger cities where prices have dropped by 8% to 14% from their respective peaks. Several of them are only a few bad months away from joining the above line-up, including San Antonio and Dallas, two of the biggest cities in the US.
| Mid-tier condo prices fell by 8% to 14% | |||
| Market | Since peak | Year of peak | |
| 1 | Glendale, AZ | -14% | 2022 |
| 2 | San Antonio, TX | -14% | 2024 |
| 3 | Dallas, TX | -14% | 2023 |
| 4 | Huntsville, AL | -14% | 2022 |
| 5 | Irving, TX | -14% | 2023 |
| 6 | Sacramento, CA | -14% | 2022 |
| 7 | Queens, NY | -14% | 2022 |
| 8 | Scottsdale, AZ | -14% | 2022 |
| 9 | Colorado Springs, CO | -13% | 2022 |
| 10 | Stockton, CA | -13% | 2022 |
| 11 | Corpus Christi, TX | -13% | 2023 |
| 12 | Modesto, CA | -13% | 2022 |
| 13 | Fort Lauderdale, FL | -12% | 2022 |
| 14 | Las Vegas, NV | -12% | 2022 |
| 15 | Henderson, NV | -12% | 2022 |
| 16 | Spokane, WA | -11% | 2022 |
| 17 | Elk Grove, CA | -10% | 2022 |
| 18 | Nashville, TN | -10% | 2022 |
| 19 | Atlanta, GA | -10% | 2023 |
| 20 | Washington, DC | -10% | 2022 |
| 21 | Salt Lake City, UT | -9% | 2022 |
| 22 | New Orleans | -9% | 2022 |
| 23 | Memphis, TN | -9% | 2024 |
| 24 | Minneapolis, MN | -9% | 2021 |
| 25 | Fort Worth, TX | -9% | 2024 |
| 26 | San Diego, CA | -9% | 2023 |
| 27 | Los Angeles, CA | -9% | 2022 |
| 28 | Tucson, AZ | -9% | 2023 |
| 29 | Marietta GA | -8% | 2024 |
| 30 | Wilmington, NC | -8% | 2022 |
| 31 | San Jose, CA | -8% | 2022 |
| 32 | Lubbock, TX | -8% | 2022 |
| 33 | St. Louis, MO | -8% | 2023 |
| 34 | San Francisco, CA | -8% | 2022 |
| 35 | Oklahoma City, OK | -8% | 2023 |
| 36 | Miami, FL | -8% | 2023 |
| 37 | Long Beach, CA | -8% | 2023 |
A reminder of the special issues condos face.
Some people buy condos as a home, to live in an urban center or along the shore, to enjoy the big views, nice amenities, or central location. They value the worry-free living; not having to mess with maintenance, repairs, and yardwork; having staff at a desk by the front door; or not having to climb stairs.
Others buy condos as rental properties or as short-term vacation rentals. Or they buy them as vacation homes. Others, especially nonresident foreign investors, buy condos to park some cash in the US and watch the price spiral higher from a distance. It’s these investors that make condos particularly speculative.
Some of the special issues:
- Over the long term, land appreciates, most buildings depreciate to zero and are eventually torn down. The land that big condo buildings sit on can be very valuable, but each condo owner only owns a tiny slice of it. The rest of their investment is in the building. A single-family house may sit on less valuable land, but the homeowner owns all of it.
- Prices that exploded over the past few years ended up being way too high, once the mania settled down.
- Hefty special assessments – or the fear of them – for long-neglected major repairs dog some older condo buildings. This is a particular issue in Florida, but elsewhere too.
- Big increases in HOA fees at many properties, partly driven by spiking insurance costs in natural disaster zones, add substantially to the monthly costs of condos.
- If a condo building is on Fannie Mae’s Blacklist, financing a unit in that building gets very difficult, and sales may be limited to cash buyers who know that.
- The Free Money has ended, and mortgage rates are roughly back to a normal range. Buyers of single-family homes face the same issue.
- Foreign-based owners who’ve had it with the US have become sellers, adding supply, and interest from foreign buyers to purchase a home in the US has waned, removing demand.
- Investors in condos as rental properties are facing stiff competition from a wave of newly completed higher-end apartment buildings that developers are trying to find tenants for.
And in case you missed it: Oh Dear, Prices of Single-Family Homes Fell by 11% to 26% in 15 Bigger Cities Already
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