In another 5 bigger cities, price fell by 10%. But San Francisco powered off the list after AI mania started running the housing market.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Local housing markets rarely march in lockstep. Here we’re tracking bigger markets where prices of mid-tier single-family homes have fallen substantially from their respective peaks in prior years; in other words, where the affordability crisis has gotten less bad. For July, we raised the cut-off to -11% from -10% to keep the list tidy. A year ago, when we started this sporadic series, the cut-off was 8%, and it was a tidy list with just 10 markets on it, and the declines topped out at 22%.
Prices of mid-tier single-family homes have dropped by 11% to 26% seasonally adjusted in these 15 bigger cities and counties through July, from their respective peaks, mostly in mid-2022, but two of them in 2024.
| City or County | From peak | Year of peak | ||
| 1 | Austin | TX | -26% | 2022 |
| 2 | Oakland | CA | -24% | 2022 |
| 3 | New Orleans | LA | -20% | 2022 |
| 4 | Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers) | FL | -18% | 2022 |
| 5 | Sarasota County | FL | -17% | 2022 |
| 6 | Birmingham | AL | -17% | 2022 |
| 7 | McKinney | TX | -14% | 2022 |
| 8 | Washington | DC | -13% | 2022 |
| 9 | Hayward | CA | -13% | 2022 |
| 10 | Contra Costa County (East Bay) | CA | -12% | 2022 |
| 11 | Denver | CO | -12% | 2022 |
| 12 | Collier County (Naples) | FL | -12% | 2024 |
| 13 | Phoenix | AZ | -11% | 2022 |
| 14 | Aurora | CO | -11% | 2024 |
| 15 | Fort Worth | TX | -11% | 2022 |
The enormous Dallas-Fort Worth area has two cities on this list: McKinney (-14%) and Fort Worth (-11%). The bigger cities in the rest of the area didn’t make the list, including Frisco (-10%), Garland (-9%), Plano (-9%), Arlington (-7%), and the city of Dallas (-7%). The area has for years attracted lots of businesses and people, and has been targeted by homebuilders, and lots of new developments have sprung up as part of “The Texas Miracle.” These new homes are competing with existing homes, and homebuilders have to sell these homes, which is getting tougher, and they’re buying down mortgage rates, and they’re offering lower price points, and they’re throwing incentives at buyers. And the market of existing homes feels that.
In other parts of Texas, Austin tops the list (-26%); San Antonio (-10%) barely missed the raised cut-off; but Houston (-5%) and Corpus Christi (-3%) were still at a safe distance.
California has three markets on the list: Oakland (-24%); Hayward (-13%) on the eastern shore of the San Francisco Bay; and Contra Costa County (-12%) in the East Bay, comprising Concord, Antioch, Pittsburg, Walnut Creek, Richmond, San Ramon, and many other smaller cities.
But San Francisco, in forth position in July last year with a decline of 15%, came off the list this year (-6%) as money from AI companies, such as Anthropic, was getting thrown around left and right, piling up knee-deep in the streets, and the market started going haywire.
Among the cities in California that were still at a safe distance from the cut-off: Sacramento (-9%), Stockton (-8%), San Jose (-6%), San Diego (-4%), and Lose Angeles (-4%).
Florida has three counties on this list. The cities in these counties – many of them well-known cities – are too small to make the list, but the counties are big enough. The single-family market in Florida isn’t nearly as weak as the condo market, where the bottom has fallen out in a bunch of markets.
Didn’t make the 11% cutoff:
There are many other bigger cities where mid-tier single-family home prices have declined from their respective peaks in prior years, but by less than 11%. Here is a sample:
| City or County | From peak | Year of peak | ||
| 1 | San Antonio | TX | -10% | 2022 |
| 2 | St. Petersburg | FL | -10% | 2024 |
| 3 | Glendale | AZ | -10% | 2022 |
| 4 | Chandler | AZ | -10% | 2022 |
| 5 | Frisco | TX | -10% | 2022 |
| 6 | Portland | OR | -9% | 2022 |
| 7 | Garland | TX | -9% | 2024 |
| 8 | Plano | TX | -9% | 2024 |
| 9 | Mesa | AZ | -9% | 2022 |
| 10 | Seattle | WA | -9% | 2022 |
| 11 | Memphis | TN | -9% | 2022 |
| 12 | Sacramento | CA | -9% | 2022 |
| 13 | Colorado Springs | CO | -9% | 2022 |
| 14 | Gilbert | AZ | -8% | 2022 |
| 15 | Stockton | CA | -8% | 2022 |
| 16 | Arlington | TX | -7% | 2022 |
| 17 | Dallas | TX | -7% | 2024 |
| 18 | Katy | TX | -6% | 2022 |
| 19 | Port Saint Lucie | FL | -6% | 2022 |
| 20 | Fremont | CA | -6% | 2025 |
| 21 | Atlanta | GA | -6% | 2022 |
| 22 | Tampa | FL | -6% | 2024 |
| 23 | Boise | ID | -6% | 2022 |
| 24 | San Jose | CA | -6% | 2025 |
| 25 | San Francisco | CA | -6% | 2022 |
| 26 | Lakeland | FL | -5% | 2024 |
| 27 | Houston | TX | -5% | 2024 |
| 28 | Spokane | WA | -5% | 2022 |
| 29 | Salt Lake City | UT | -5% | 2022 |
| 30 | Orlando | FL | -5% | 2024 |
| 31 | Jacksonville | FL | -5% | 2024 |
| 32 | Tucson | AZ | -5% | 2024 |
| 33 | Durham | NC | -5% | 2024 |
| 34 | Las Vegas | NV | -4% | 2025 |
| 35 | San Diego | CA | -4% | 2024 |
| 36 | Boston | MA | -4% | 2025 |
| 37 | Raleigh | NC | -4% | 2022 |
| 38 | Henderson | NV | -4% | 2022 |
| 39 | Nashville | TN | -4% | 2023 |
| 40 | Los Angeles | CA | -4% | 2024 |
Methodology and data: These prices are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of single-family mid-tier homes in “cities” or “counties.” All data here are from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.
The 15 bigger cities with price declines of 11% to 26%:
The metrics in each table from left to right: price decline from the peak, month-over-month change (MoM), year-over-year change (YoY), and the remaining increase since January 2000.
| Austin, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -26% | -0.1% | -4.0% | 157% |
| Oakland, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -24% | 0.6% | -1.2% | 280% |
| New Orleans, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2007 |
| -20% | -0.1% | -2.5% | 103% |
| Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers), FL, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -18% | -0.6% | -6.3% | 181% |
| Sarasota County, FL, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17% | -0.2% | -5.3% | 209% |
| Birmingham, AL, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2002 |
| -17% | -0.3% | -2.3% | 32% |
| McKinney, TX, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -14% | -0.2% | -6.1% | 150% |
| Washington D.C., Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -13% | 0.2% | -1.2% | 269% |
| Hayward, CA, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -13% | -0.1% | -4% | 264% |
| Contra Costa County, CA, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | -0.1% | -2.3% | 190% |
| Denver, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | 0.1% | -2.4% | 206% |
| Collier County (Naples), FL, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Mar 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | -0.3% | -4.5% | 238% |
| Phoenix, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -11% | -0.2% | -1.8% | 244% |
| Aurora, CO, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From May 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -11% | -0.1% | -2.9% | 188% |
| Fort Worth, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -11% | -0.2% | -2.0% | 186% |
And in case you missed it: Pending Home Sales Drop to 2nd Lowest on Record, Plunge to Record Low in the West, to Near-Record Low in the South
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Bout time…
The bottom is not within sight…
Thanks WR
Slowly but surely prices are falling down and I don’t see the bottom in the near future
Its a multi year process
First condos then sfr
First few cities then more and more cities
I see some of the once hot real estate cities there
Cheaper money was available everywhere hence prices will fall everywhere as well