Compared to May 2019, sales were down the most in the West (-32%) and Northeast (-31%), less so in the South (-15%) and Midwest (-17%).

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Sales of existing single-family homes that closed in May rose by 3.5% from April, seasonally adjusted, to an annual rate of 3.80 million sales, remaining in the same rock-bottom range that had commenced in the second half of 2022, according to data by the National Association of Realtors today.

Compared to May in prior years (historical data from YCharts):

• 2025: +3.3% (year-over-year)
• 2024: +3.8%
• 2023: +0.3%
• 2022: -21.0%
• 2021: -26.9%
• 2019: -20.0%
• 2015: -18.8%
• 2009: +6.1% (Housing Bust)
• 1996: -2.6%

Supply of single-family homes rose to 4.5 months in May (red line with big red squares in the chart below), same as in May 2020, and both were the highest supply for May since 2016.

Supply is a function of inventory and sales (demand) – how much inventory there is in relationship to sales. Sales have hobbled along rock-bottom, while inventories have been rising (historical data from YCharts).

Sales of condos and co-ops remained at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 370,000 for the fourth month in a row, near the very bottom of the data, which go back only to late 2011.

Not seasonally adjusted, 35,000 condos were sold in May, and on this basis, sales have been increasing from the January low, but seasonal adjustments flattened them out. Year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted, sales were unchanged.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate compared to May in prior years:

• 2025: +2.8% (year-over-year)
• 2021: -48.6%
• 2019: -36.2%
• 2012: -27.5% (first May in the data series)

Supply of condos: Condo supply in April was revised up to 6.3 months, the highest for any April since April 2012, the first April in the data series (red line with big red squares in the chart below).

The National Association of Realtors has had an issue with its condo supply data this year. The originally reported figure is an outlier-low supply figure, but then a month later, it gets revised higher by close to 2 months. This has been happening every month this year.

NAR had originally reported supply for April as 4.5 months, which was a total outlier in the figures, and I didn’t include it in my chart because I didn’t want to look like a goofball. Today, NAR revised April condo supply up to 6.3 months, nearly 2 months more than originally reported. So today, April was included in the chart. For May, NAR reported supply of 4.6 months, which is obviously way low. A month from now, it’ll revise the figure to something close to 6.4 months’ supply.

National median price v. local prices.

For single-family homes, the national median price inched up year-over-year by 1.3% in May, not seasonally adjusted.

The median price of single-family homes had exploded by 41% from June 2020 through June 2022, from already high prices. Those now too-high prices are the fundamental economic problem dogging the housing market. Higher home prices also trigger higher property taxes and higher homeowner’s insurance premiums (insurance companies have to figure replacement costs), which are triggering the “affordability issues” that have kept home sales in the freezer.

But mortgage rates, compared to the times before the Fed’s QE, before 2009, are normal to low. See chart below. They were just distorted by the Fed’s QE in the years before 2022.

From a macro-economic perspective, the national median price is an interesting and valuable data point.

But for people buying or selling a home, the national median price is irrelevant. What matters to buyers and sellers are prices in their local markets, and price dynamics in those local markets vary dramatically.

Single-family home prices have dropped by 10% to 26% in 15 bigger markets, including:

• Austin, TX: -26%
• Oakland, CA: -25%
• New Orleans, LA: -20%
• Sarasota County, FL: -17%

In some other bigger cities, prices of single-family homes have continued to rise year-over-year to new highs, notably:

• New York City: +5.1%
• Chicago: +3.9%
• Milwaukee: +3.7%.

The ups in some markets and the downs in other markets have been nearly balancing each other out on a national scale, to where the national median price has been inching higher at a rate between 0% year-over-year (January 2026) and 1.5% year-over-year (March 2026).

In May, the national median price of single-family homes rose 1.3% year-over-year to $434,300.

The national median price of condos and co-ops rose year-over-year by 1.7% in May. The year-over-year readings have ranged in recent months from -0.8% (September) to +4.0% (January).

On a local basis,  condo prices have plunged by 15% to 33% in 24 markets from their highs, with several markets dropping below their highs in 2006. From peak:

• Cape Coral, FL: -33%
• Oakland, CA: -31%
• Petersburg, Fl: -28%
• Austin, TX: -27%
• Fort Myers, FL: -26%
• Sarasota County, FL: -24%
• Tampa, FL: -20%
• Garland, TX: -19%.

Sales by region of existing homes of all types.

On a month-to-month basis, sales of existing homes (single-family, condos, and co-ops combined) were unchanged in the West and rose in the South, Midwest, and Northeast, seasonally adjusted.

Compared to the same month in 2019, sales were down the most in the West (-32%) and in the Northeast (31%). In the South they were down by 15%, in the Midwest by 17%. A map of the four regions is below the article at the top of the comments.

In the West, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales was unchanged in May from April, at 750,000 homes.

Compared to May in prior years:

• 2025: +5.6% (year-over-year)
• 2024: 0%
• 2023: -2.6%
• 2022: -29.2%
• 2019: -32.4%
• 2018: -35.9%

In the Northeast, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales ticked up to 460,000 in May, just a hair above the record low level in NAR’s data, which goes back to 1999.

Compared to May in prior years:

• 2025: -8.0% (year-over-year)
• 2024: -4.2%
• 2023: -8.0%
• 2022: -31.3%
• 2019: -31.3%
• 2018: -31.3%

In the South, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales rose by 3.2% in May from April, to 1.96 million homes.

Compared to May in prior years:

• 2025: +5.9% (year-over-year)
• 2024: +5.9%
• 2023: -0.5%
• 2022: -19.0%
• 2019: -15.2%
• 2018: -14.4%

In the Midwest, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales rose by 6.4% in May from April, to 1,000,000 homes.

Compared to May in prior years:

• 2025: +2.0% (year-over-year)
• 2024: +2.0%
• 2023: +1.0%
• 2022: -20.0%
• 2019: -16.7%
• 2018: -21.3%

But mortgage rates are not high. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up to 6.48% as of June 4, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly measure.

Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, but are higher, and the spread between them varies. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.53% at the moment [my weekend commentary on the Treasury market].

Inflation in May will likely clock in at over 4.0%, and these mortgage rates are only 2.5 percentage points above the rate of inflation. Mortgage rates are not high; inflation is high.

Mortgage rates of 6.5% are at the lower end of the range that prevailed in the decades before the Fed’s QE which started in 2009. Mega-QE during the pandemic, which triggered the below-3% mortgage rates and the negative “real” mortgage rates (adjusted for inflation), was the main culprit in the explosion of home prices from mid-2020 to mid-2022, and thereby the main culprit of the “affordability” crisis since then. Mega-QE also helped trigger the worst inflation in 40 years.

In case you missed it:  As Home Sellers Grapple with Reality, Listing Prices Fall by Most in at Least a Decade

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