San Francisco & Portland came off the list. Fort Worth & Aurora (CO) come on the list.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The major national home price indices roughly agree with each other: For the past months, national home prices barely inched up year-over-year – by less than 1% in April. But this small uptick is composed of big moves up and down in different markets. And in specific markets there have been sharp declines – even with single-family home prices.

We noted earlier that mid-tier condo prices have dropped in 31 bigger cities by 12% to 31%, led by Oakland (-31%), St. Petersburg, FL (-28%), and Austin (-26%). Oakland’s condo prices are back where they’d been 20 years ago.

Single-family homes have not quite had such drama. Prices of mid-tier single-family homes in 15 bigger cities have dropped by 10% to 26% through April from their respective peaks, seasonally adjusted. In 12 of those cities, the peaks were in mid-2022; and in 3, the peaks were in 2024 (Phoenix, AZ; St. Petersburg, FL; and Naples/Collier County, FL).

1. Austin, TX: -26%
2. Oakland, CA: -25%
3. New Orleans, LA: -20%
4. Sarasota County, FL: -17%
5. Lee Country (Cape Coral, Fort Myers), FL: -16%
6. Birmingham, AL: -14%
7. Washington, DC: -13%
8. McKinney, TX -13%
9. Hayward, CA: -12%
10. Denver, CO: -12%
11. Collier County (Naples), FL: -11%
12. Phoenix, AZ: -10%
13. Petersburg, FL: -10%
14. Aurora, CO: -10%
15. Fort Worth, TX: -10%

The huge Dallas-Fort Worth metro has two cities on this list – McKinney (-13%) and Fort Worth (-10%). And it has a bunch of cities in the “didn’t make the 10% cutoff” category listed below, including the city of Dallas (-6.1%).

McKinney is interesting. It was one of the fastest-growing cities in the US over the past 20 years, part of the Texas Miracle, as it’s called in Texas. In the two years between mid-2020 and mid-2022, home prices exploded by 63%. Homebuilders have been flooding the market with new supply.

But now demand has backed off in relationship to this inventory and to 2022 prices. Homebuilders are cutting prices and piling on incentives to make deals, and that is putting downward pressure on prices of existing homes that we track here.

Lennar, one of the largest homebuilders and shooting to be #1, has been active in McKinney, has been very aggressive with its pricing strategy: The average price of its homes sold nationwide last quarter was down by 24% from the peak in 2022. This effectively rolled the average price back to where it had been in 2017. That’s what homeowners who want to sell are up against. But anything will sell if the price is low enough.

In April, prices of existing single-family homes in McKinney fell by 0.7% from March and by 7.1% year-over-year.

McKinney, TX, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.7%	-7.1%	154%

Didn’t make the 10% cutoff:

There are many other bigger cities that didn’t make the 10% cut-off, where mid-tier single-family home prices have declined from their respective peaks in prior years, but by less than 10%.

And there a few bigger cities that had previously made the 10% cutoff, but home prices increased in recent months by enough to reduce the decline from peak to less than 10%. The standout is San Francisco, the epicenter of the AI boom, where the massive amounts of money raining down on people working for local AI companies has triggered a “mansion shortage,” as it’s called, and it began to trickle down into mid-tier homes. Nevertheless, single-family home prices in San Francisco, despite the recent jump, are still down by 9% from the peak in 2022.

• Glendale, AZ: -9.5%
• San Francisco, CA: -9.3%
• San Antonio, TX: -9.3%
• Portland, OR: -9.0%
• Chandler, AZ: -8.9%
• Sacramento, CA: -8.5%
• Mesa, AZ: -8.4%
• Plano, TX: -8.1%
• Colorado Springs, CO: -7.8%
• Memphis, TN: -7.7%
• Stockton, CA: -7.7%
• Seattle, WA: -7.6%
• Arlington, TX: -6.9%
• Dallas, TX: -6.1%
• Atlanta, GA: -6.0%
• Boise, ID: -5.9%
• Orlando, FL: -4.8%
• Jacksonville, FL: -4.8%
• Houston, TX: -4.4%
• Spokane, WA: -4.4%
• San Diego, CA: -4.1%
• San Jose, CA: -4.0%
• Tucson, AZ: -4.0%
• Raleigh, NC: -3.5%
• Nashville, TN: -3.3%
• Los Angeles, CA: -3.2%
• Las Vegas, NV: -3.1%

In some other bigger cities, home prices have continued to rise or have flattened out, such as Chicago and Philadelphia. Every market is different. My discussion and charts of the price gains and price declines of combined single-family, condo, and co-op prices in 33 large and expensive cities is here.

Methodology and data: These prices are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of single-family mid-tier homes in “cities” or in two instances, “counties.” All data here are from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.

The 15 bigger cities with price declines of 10% to 26%:

The metrics in each table from left to right: price decline from the peak, month-over-month change (MoM), year-over-year change (YoY), and the remaining increase since January 2000.

Austin, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-26%	-0.6%	-5.5%	160%

Oakland, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-24%	0.1%	-6.6%	276%

Back to April 2018. In the 10 years from mid-2012 to the peak in May 2022, prices exploded by 236%, which was obviously nuts.

New Orleans, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2007
-20%	0.0%	-3.1%	103%

Sarasota County, FL, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.2%	-6.7%	31%

Lee County (Cape Coral & Fort Myers), FL, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.2%	-7.7%	128%

Birmingham, AL, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2002
-14%	-0.5%	-1.9%	32%

Washington D.C., Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.5%	-3.0%	271%

McKinney, TX, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.7%	-7.1%	154%

Denver, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.7%	-4.1%	208%

Hayward, CA, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.5%	-6%	268%

Collier County (Naples), FL, Single-Family Home Prices
From Mar 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11%	-0.2%	-5.3%	8%

Phoenix, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10%	-0.2%	-2.3%	248%

St. Petersburg, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10%	0.2%	-4.9%	353%

Aurora, CO, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10%	-0.6%	-3.9%	191%

Fort Worth, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10%	-0.2%	-2.5%	188%

And in case you missed it: The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, April 2026

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