PCE Inflation Index Revised Higher Going Back 2 Years. “Core Services” PCE Price Index Was Much Hotter by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2023 • 52 Comments Fed’s favored inflation measures get a big upward revision going back across this bout of inflation.
Another Recession Indicator Refuses to See a Recession: Corporate Profits without Federal Reserve Banks Hit Record by Wolf Richter • Sep 28, 2023 • 136 Comments Massively inflated during the pandemic, corporate profits are still not normalizing, and bode well for future investments and economic growth.
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too by Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2023 • 135 Comments QE giveth, QT taketh away. The two sucker rallies this year of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index got wiped out.
In Very “Hawkish Hold,” Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Sees One More Hike in 2023, Only Two Rate Cuts in 2024, to 5.25%. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 205 Comments The shocker was the infamous “dot plot”: Higher for even longer, ending the year 2024 at 5.25%.
Worst “Rent” Inflation since 1983 & Red-Hot Homeownership CPI Fuel Canada’s CPI Surge. Bank of Canada in a Pickle of its Own Making by Wolf Richter • Sep 19, 2023 • 140 Comments Inflation dished up another nasty surprise. Other costs jumped too. Gasoline didn’t help. This was a broad-based mess.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Liabilities: RRPs Plunge, Reserves Rise after Bank Panic, Currency in Circulation Dips after Pandemic Spike, TGA Gets Refilled by Wolf Richter • Sep 16, 2023 • 116 Comments QT’s impact on the Fed’s liabilities, and massive movements between them.
“Unrealized Losses” on Securities Held by Banks, Oh Dearie, the Whole Schmear: +8%, to $558 Billion by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2023 • 257 Comments How do you lose 47% on 30-year Treasuries? Buy at auction in Aug 2020. Or carry them at purchase price and hide the “unrealized loss” in the footnotes.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$105 Billion in August, -$864 Billion from Peak, to $8.1 Trillion, Lowest since July 2021 by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2023 • 125 Comments It shed 24% of the Treasury securities it had added during pandemic QE, footprint in ballooning Treasury market shrinks.
Construction Spending for Factories Soars, after Decades in the Doldrums by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2023 • 131 Comments Driven by manufacturing plants for technologically advanced, high-value products. Automation is the great equalizer.
Our Drunken Sailors Are Drinking Directly from the Punch Bowl: Powell, Did You See That? by Wolf Richter • Aug 31, 2023 • 253 Comments But they’re earning more than they’re spending, and despite spending like drunken sailors, they’re saving a lot.
