Our Favorite Recession Indicator: Next Recession Keeps Moving Further Out by Wolf Richter • May 9, 2024 • 181 Comments It’s time again to look at the trends in claims for unemployment insurance benefits.
Ad-Tech Outfit DoubleVerify Plunges 40% Today, -62% from Peak, 3 Years after IPO. Nabs WOLF STREET Downgrade to “Should Have Never Bought” by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2024 • 78 Comments We have a special place in our heart for DoubleVerify because it blacklists WOLF STREET in the “brand safety” services it touts to advertisers.
Used Car Prices Continue Historic Plunge, Wholesale Prices Gave up 59% of Crazy Pandemic Spike by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2024 • 99 Comments Even during tax refund season! Exactly what Americans need. But it’s not helpful for big fleets, such as Hertz.
Buffett Invests in T-bills instead of Stocks, Waits for Bad Stuff to Happen, Cash is King at 5%-plus by Wolf Richter • May 6, 2024 • 216 Comments When the Oracle of Omaha gets dark-ish on stocks at these prices, he isn’t taken seriously, suddenly. It’s only when he hypes stocks that everyone jumps in behind him.
The Reasons the Fed’s Bowman is “Willing” to Hike Rates if “Data Indicate Progress on Inflation Has Stalled or Reversed” by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2024 • 103 Comments She nails it with her list of inflation-fueling factors. It parallels what Powell said more softly at the press conference.
Which Industries Lost Jobs, Which Gained Jobs: Longer-Term Employment Trends in Charts by Wolf Richter • May 3, 2024 • 49 Comments New all-time highs: Construction, Professional & Business Services, Healthcare, Wholesale trade. Layoffs whack Information.
Jobs, Wages, Mass Immigration, Full- and Part-Time Workers, Unemployment, Prime-Age Participation Rate, and Multiple Jobholders (who are they anyway?) by Wolf Richter • May 3, 2024 • 71 Comments But the undercount of mass-immigration distorts the household data.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.60 Trillion from Peak, to $7.36 Trillion, Lowest since December 2020 by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2024 • 209 Comments Quantitative Tightening has removed 38% of Treasury securities and 27% of MBS that pandemic QE had added.
Delinquencies of Floating-Rate Office CMBS Loans Hit 20%, But Fixed-Rate Loans at 4.7% by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2024 • 20 Comments Revenge of the floating-rate CRE loans: Ironically, use of floating-rate office loans ballooned as interest rates rose.
Oh Deary, Where Did my Rate Cuts Go? Fed’s Wait-and-See Now Entrenched? And Suddenly Lots of Talk about “Rate Hikes” by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2024 • 166 Comments What Powell Said about rate hikes, no rate cuts, rate cuts, and the QT slowdown while getting rid of MBS entirely.
