Treasury Market Scuttles Hope for December Rate Cut, Doubts January Cut, after Hawkish Fed Minutes by Wolf Richter • Nov 19, 2025 • 9 Comments “Many participants suggested that … it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.”
Another Sign that a Major Rethink of the Size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet Is Gaining Momentum by Wolf Richter • Nov 17, 2025 • 94 Comments Warsh, on the shortlist for Fed Chair, advocates for more QT, a smaller balance sheet, and lower short-term rates, in sync with Bessent.
Government Sold $694 Billion of Treasuries this Week, Debt Hits $38.2 Trillion, Treasury Yields Rise Further, Shift to T-Bills Begins by Wolf Richter • Nov 14, 2025 • 145 Comments Long-term Treasury yields under pressure, amid large auctions of notes and bonds, despite shift to T-bills.
Entire Treasury Yield Curve from 3 Months to 30 Years Has Risen since Fed’s Rate Cut. Mortgage Rates too. Bond Market Edgy about Inflation & Supply by Wolf Richter • Nov 9, 2025 • 145 Comments The 6-month Treasury yield sees Fed on hold in December. Cutting rates as inflation accelerates is a delicate operation that the bond market isn’t fond of.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in October, -$2.39 Trillion from Peak, to $6.57 Trillion, Standing Repo Facility Back to Zero by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2025 • 57 Comments The SRF did its job. Month-end repo market turmoil, exacerbated by effects of the government shutdown, has settled down.
Repo Market Liquidity Pressures Made Worse by Government Shutdown, but the Fed’s SRF Did its Job and Went Back to Sleep by Wolf Richter • Nov 4, 2025 • 42 Comments After the debt ceiling, the shutdown: government checking account (TGA) sucks up $700 billion in four months.
What Does the “Federal Funds Rate,” which the Fed Targets, still Measure? Not Much, Mostly a Bizarre Arbitrage Trade by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2025 • 19 Comments “The FOMC should modernize the target rate”: Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan.
Banks Borrow Record $50 Billion at Fed’s New SRF amid Hot Repo Rates, ON RRPs Spike to $52 Billion in Opposite Direction by Wolf Richter • Oct 31, 2025 • 31 Comments Month-End Liquidity-Palooza: Banks finally used the new & improved SRF the way the Fed has been exhorting them to use it to keep a lid on repo rates.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: Reserve Balances & ON RRPs -$109 Billion in October, -$3.0 Trillion from Peak. What’s Next, According to Powell by Wolf Richter • Oct 30, 2025 • 31 Comments Reserves will shrink further when the balance sheet stays flat after QT ends.
Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points with 2 Dissents in Opposite Directions, QT to End, but MBS to Continue Rolling Off to Be Replaced by T-bills by Wolf Richter • Oct 29, 2025 • 165 Comments Flying blind and despite rising inflation.
