Treasury Market Sees No Rate Cut by Sept., 30-Year Treasury Yield Near 5%: The Yield Curve and “Real” Mortgage Rates by Wolf Richter • Jul 25, 2025 • 104 Comments At the long end, the bond market is nervous.
30-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.96% despite “Solid” Auction, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage-Rate Spread Historically Wide by Wolf Richter • Jul 12, 2025 • 169 Comments The bond market’s reaction to the inflationary environment, to fears of a lax Fed, and to a Mississippi River of new debt.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$13 Billion in June, -$2.31 Trillion from Peak, to $6.66 Trillion. New Milestone: 3 Years of QT by Wolf Richter • Jul 3, 2025 • 95 Comments The new and improved Standing Repo Facility (SRF) sprang into action for one day at quarter-end on June 30.
Who Held or Bought the Huge US Government Debt even as the Fed Shed Treasury Securities in Q1? An Iffy Situation by Wolf Richter • Jun 20, 2025 • 41 Comments Here’s who dumped and who bought over the years through Q1.
Fed Sees Hotter Inflation for Longer, Higher Unemployment, Slower Growth, “Dot Plot” Shifts More Hawkish but still Sees 2 Cuts in 2025. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Jun 18, 2025 • 120 Comments “Uncertainties” rule. Wait-and-see amid inflation fears and slowing growth.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$36 Billion in May, -$2.29 Trillion from Peak, to $6.67 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020. by Wolf Richter • Jun 5, 2025 • 56 Comments The Fed improves its Standing Repo Facility to prevent another repo market blowout as the balance sheet continues to drop.
How the Debt Ceiling Is Now Pouring Liquidity into Financial Markets, only to Suck it Back Out Very Fast Later this Year by Wolf Richter • May 11, 2025 • 100 Comments Last time, $840 billion got sucked out in 5 months, all from excess cash in ON RRPs. But after $2.26 trillion of QT, ON RRPs are nearly gone.
Fully in Wait-and-See Mode, Fed Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Higher Uncertainty, Higher Inflation, and Higher Unemployment by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 98 Comments QT Continues at the slower pace announced in March.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in April, -$2.26 Trillion from Peak, to $6.71 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020 by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2025 • 33 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 25.2% of total assets. The Assets-to-GDP ratio declined to 22.4%, first seen in 2013.
The Spread between 10-Year Treasury Yield & Mortgage Rates Is Historically Wide and Widened Further: Some Thoughts by Wolf Richter • Apr 18, 2025 • 152 Comments Mortgage rates are higher in relationship to the 10-year Treasury yield than they were most of the time over the past 50 years. There are reasons.
