Businesses, Governments Join the Drunken Sailors. Consumers Still in Party-Mode: Tough to See a Slowdown in this Scenario by Wolf Richter • Jul 27, 2023 • 125 Comments What’s easier to see in this scenario is more persistent inflation.
Waiting for the Promised Recession: Economic Growth even Stronger than Feared, Treasury Yields Spike by Wolf Richter • Jun 29, 2023 • 218 Comments The Fed has jacked up interest rates to over 5% to slow down this circus, and instead we’re getting accelerated growth.
Consumers, Governments Spent like Drunken Sailors in Q1. Private Investment Plunge & Inventory Change Dogged GDP by Wolf Richter • Apr 27, 2023 • 71 Comments Americans came out of their funk they’d been in late last year. They’re 70% of GDP. They blew money left and right; spending on durable goods spiked!
No Landing Yet: Consumers Refuse to Give Up, Government Spending Jumps, Inventories Rise toward Trend, Trade Deficit Less Horrible by Wolf Richter • Jan 26, 2023 • 114 Comments Annual GDP for 2022 rose at average pre-pandemic rate, strong second half, weak first half. “Freak event” that sunk Q1 GDP completely unwound.
GDP Looked Good, No “Landing” (Soft or Otherwise), But Wasn’t as Good as it Looked due to Reversal of Q1 “Freak Event.” Consumers Still Refused to Throw in the Towel by Wolf Richter • Oct 27, 2022 • 100 Comments And after five months of declines, government consumption and investment rose again.
GDP Sunk by Plunge in Private Investment, Drop in Government Spending. Consumer Spending Rose Despite Raging Inflation by Wolf Richter • Jul 28, 2022 • 225 Comments What Powell had indicated: Consumers hung in there, amid strong labor market, surging wages. But private investment plunged, incl -14% in residential.
That Q1 GDP Drop Was a Freak Event that’ll Get Unwound in Q2 by Wolf Richter • May 15, 2022 • 172 Comments In details and charts.
GDP Sunk by Trade Deficit Shitshow (Result of Globalization), Drop in Government Spending. Consumers Held up Despite Raging Inflation by Wolf Richter • Apr 28, 2022 • 173 Comments Inventories are slowly recovering, but remain below where they should be.
Year of Distortions, Shortages, Massive Inflation, Worst Trade Deficits Ever, and Hyper-Stimulated Growth Ends with a Bang by Wolf Richter • Jan 27, 2022 • 150 Comments But companies were finally able to rebuild some woefully low inventories.
Marred by Inflation, Inventory Shortages, and Record Trade Deficit, GDP Growth in Q3 Reverts to Decade Normal by Wolf Richter • Oct 28, 2021 • 91 Comments But still up 4.9% from a year ago – outside of the prior quarter, the hottest year-over-year growth in 20 years.
