Durable Goods Orders Made Ugly Headlines, but the 3-Month Average, which Irons Out Aircraft Orders, Rose to a Record by Wolf Richter • May 27, 2025 • 18 Comments And the backlog of unfilled orders remained at record high.
Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 101 Comments Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
GDP Whacked by Massive Spike in Imports on Frontrunning of Tariffs. Consumer Spending Grew, Business Investment Soared by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2025 • 81 Comments “Final sales to private domestic purchasers” jumped by 3.0%, on strength in the private economy of businesses and consumers.
How Gold Imports Blew up Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The Old Model is Dead, Long Live the “New GDPNow Model” Starting Apr 30 by Wolf Richter • Apr 28, 2025 • 66 Comments The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow could be all over the place, but nothing compares to how gold imports blew it up this time.
Services Activity Jumps in March, Cost Pressures from Tariffs & Staffing Well Up by Wolf Richter • Mar 24, 2025 • 44 Comments But “competition limited the pass-through of higher costs to selling price … which will harm profits.”
Will Economic Detox Lead to a Recession? Maybe Not. But a Long Deep Stock Market Rout Will (See Dotcom Bust) by Wolf Richter • Mar 14, 2025 • 220 Comments “We’re focused on the real economy,” Bessent said. “Ouch,” stocks said. Where did the Trump put go?
Our Drunken Sailors Partied Massively in Q4, Propped Up GDP Growth. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsened to 121.8% by Wolf Richter • Jan 30, 2025 • 59 Comments Biggest consumer spending surge in nearly two years overpowered the drop in private domestic investment and change in private inventories.
We May Not Get Our Recession until the AI Spending Bubble Implodes by Wolf Richter • Nov 10, 2024 • 186 Comments But this stuff takes years. Until then, the massive spending from corporate balance sheets and cash flows that circulates & circulates is very stimulative.
Our Drunken Sailors Splurge in Q3, Phenomenally so on Durable Goods, Drive GDP Growth. But Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsens by Wolf Richter • Oct 30, 2024 • 120 Comments Jump in government spending also boosted GDP growth. But surging Imports, falling residential fixed investments, and inventories dragged.
What If There’s No Landing at all, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation? by Wolf Richter • Oct 13, 2024 • 194 Comments That scenario is re-emerging as a real possibility in recent economic data.
