The Bank of Canada Un-Pauses, Hikes 25 Basis Points, Second Central Bank to Un-Pause on Resurging Inflation Fears by Wolf Richter • Jun 7, 2023 • 102 Comments More rate hikes are on the table. “Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.”
US National Debt Spikes by $359 billion on 1st Day after Debt Ceiling Suspended. TGA Begins to Get Refilled, Draining Liquidity from Market by Wolf Richter • Jun 6, 2023 • 118 Comments The Fed’s QT is happening for the first time simultaneously with the refilling of the TGA. Both draw liquidity from markets.
Reserve Bank of Australia, First Central Bank to “Pause” then “Un-Pause,” Hikes Again, Warns of More Hikes. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Jun 6, 2023 • 44 Comments Markets surprised by hike and hawkish tilt on fears about inflation expectations and surging labor costs without productivity gains.
What Are Older Office Towers Worth in the New Era? Second San Francisco Office Tower Sells for 70% Off Original Listing Price by Wolf Richter • Jun 5, 2023 • 125 Comments And nearly 60% off the purchase price in 2005. Price discovery sets in. Deals are being made.
Why Jobs in Retail Are at 2007 Levels: It’s Structural. Jobs in Ecommerce & Services Boomed but Aren’t in “Retail Trade.” And Half of Retail Trade is Moribund by Wolf Richter • Jun 5, 2023 • 84 Comments Walmart U.S. gave us some color: ecommerce sales +27%; grocery sales +12%; non-grocery brick-and-mortar sales -10%.
Long View of Job Growth by Industry. And the “Multiple Jobholders” Question by Wolf Richter • Jun 3, 2023 • 134 Comments To shed some additional light on the jobs report.
Landing Got Cancelled: Job Market Still at Cruising Altitude with Some Bumps by Wolf Richter • Jun 2, 2023 • 229 Comments Even Wage Growth for Nonsupervisory Workers Accelerated. Powell is scratching his head, after all the rate hikes.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunged by $348 Billion in the 10 Weeks since Peak Bank Crisis, and by $580 billion since QT Started by Wolf Richter • Jun 1, 2023 • 139 Comments QT on track, bank liquidity measures unwind.
Banks’ Unrealized Losses on Securities Drop for Second Quarter in a Row, -25% from Peak by Wolf Richter • Jun 1, 2023 • 47 Comments From huge to somewhat less huge? Because they’re still six times the magnitude of the prior worst-record in 2018
That was Fast: Mortgage Rates Re-Spike to 7% Range as it Sinks in that the Fed Won’t Cut Rates “Anytime Soon,” Mortgage Applications Plunge to 1995 Levels. Even Investors Pull Out by Wolf Richter • May 31, 2023 • 194 Comments Spring selling season was a dud. But what comes next may be worse, that’s what mortgage applications and investors tell us.
