The Fed Isn’t Having a Lot of Luck Cooling this Labor Market by Wolf Richter • Apr 7, 2023 • 215 Comments This is still an astonishingly tight labor market: astonishing because the Fed has hiked rates for a year and not much has changed.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunges by $101 Billion in Two Weeks, as QT Continues and Bank Liquidity Support Begins to Unwind by Wolf Richter • Apr 6, 2023 • 114 Comments The dream of a return to QE was fun while it lasted.
Unemployment Insurance Claims Still at Good-Times Levels as Gone-Awry Seasonal Adjustments Get Fixed by Wolf Richter • Apr 6, 2023 • 55 Comments Labor market that’s less tight, where it takes a little longer to find a new job, similar to the Good Times before the pandemic.
New Vehicle Sales in Q1 Jump 11.7%. Inventories Build, But Still Less than Half of 2019. Pent-up Demand at 6 Million Vehicles by Wolf Richter • Apr 5, 2023 • 132 Comments Going to be tough for a recession to gain momentum with this kind of demand-overhang going into it.
San Francisco Office Market Turns into Nightmare, in Two Easy Steps. Step 1: Hogging Office Space; Step 2: Working from Home by Wolf Richter • Apr 4, 2023 • 125 Comments Step 3: The economy… but that step hasn’t happened yet.
This is Still the Most Astonishing Labor Market: Job Openings, Hiring, Voluntary Quits, Layoffs & Discharges by Wolf Richter • Apr 4, 2023 • 75 Comments Still lots of churn as workers arbitrage the tight labor market for their benefit. Back to “normal” a long way off.
The “Extraordinary Measures” that the Government Uses in the Debt-Ceiling Farce to Delay a Default by Wolf Richter • Apr 3, 2023 • 189 Comments The government can manipulate the gross national debt to keep it below the debt ceiling while issuing new debt. But not for long. Then the game is over.
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency and Exchange Rates: Slow Long-Term Decline on Track by Wolf Richter • Apr 2, 2023 • 188 Comments But the Chinese Renminbi didn’t make any progress at all last year.
Consumers Got Whacked by Inflation, High Interest Rates, Layoff News, Asset Prices Falling from Lofty Peaks… And They’re Still Not Slowing Down by Wolf Richter • Mar 31, 2023 • 247 Comments The banking turmoil is seen as next test for consumers. Would be a hoot if they just go ahead and blow that off too.
Services Inflation Rages at Worst Rate since 1984, Keeps “Core PCE” (Fed’s Yardstick) in High Range. Energy & Goods Cool by Wolf Richter • Mar 31, 2023 • 183 Comments PCE inflation measures: Services — nearly two-thirds of consumer spending — that’s where the inflation action is.
