Sudden, Infectious Enthusiasm for “Current Economic Conditions” after Trump Called them “Terrible” for Months?

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The “Trump Effect?”

No major consumer confidence measure has been more relentlessly negative since the Financial Crisis than Gallup’s weekly Economic Confidence Index. It has become notorious for its gloomy depiction of Americans’ feelings about the economy. It was in positive territory only twice: in January 2008, when the index commenced as it was plunging, and in the weeks of December 2014 and January 2015, which Gallup ascribed to the drop in gasoline prices. The rest of the nine years of its existence, the index has been negative.

But in the three survey weeks since the November 8 election, everything changed. And today, the index hit record highs.

Even Americans’ views of current economic conditions jumped from dismal to record highs, though the vast US economy could hardly have changed in those three weeks. Not even the government has changed. That’s the Trump effect.

It’s split by party line. Republicans have become “substantially more positive about the economy,” as Gallup said earlier, while Democrats’ “former optimism has collapsed.”

Today’s Economic Confidence Index for the week ending November 27 rose to +6, the highest since the survey began in January 2008, and up from -11 before the election. I circled the 17-point spike in Gallup’s chart:

us-gallup-economic-confidence-2016-11-29

The index is an average of two components: how Americans feel about current economic conditions; and how they rate future economic conditions – whether the economy is going to get better or worse. In theory, the index ranges from +100 (all respondents say the economy is great and getting better) to -100 (all respondents say the economy is bad and getting worse). During the Financial Crisis, the overall index bottomed out -65. And today, it set a record high of +6.

gold-bust-300x250-3

Current conditions: with only 22% of Americans considering the economy “poor,” the current conditions index rose to a record +8, up from +6 last week and from 0 the week before the election.

Economic outlook: 49% of Americans said economic conditions are “getting better” and 45% said they’re “getting worse.” As a result, the index rose to +4, up from +1 last week, from -5 the prior week, and from -21 before the election. A phenomenal three-week 25-point spike. I circled the Trump-Effect:

us-gallup-economic-confidence-currentoutlook-2016-11-29

Gallup explains:

It’s not just Americans who have felt more economically exuberant since the election – US markets have skyrocketed, with the Dow closing above 19,000 this week for the first time in its 120-year history.

This assessment is particularly intriguing since Trump lambasted the Fed-fueled “fake” stock market rally throughout the campaign and proclaimed over and over again that the economy was in “terrible shape.” Many Americans obviously believed it. And now this sudden switcheroo?

Amid all this infectious enthusiasm, Gallup adds a word of caution: “It’s too early to tell whether this uptick in Americans’ positivity will last as Trump’s term begins in January.”

On the other hand (sort of)…

The monthly Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey has been depicting Americans’ feelings about the economy in a substantially more upbeat manner than Gallup’s measure. Since late 2014, it has ventured frequently above 100 (1985 = 100). Today, the first post-election release, it rose 6.3 points to 107.1, the highest since the glory days before the Financial Crisis.

The Present Situation Index jumped 7.2 points to 130.3. This means that Americans think the economy, the way it is today, is outright hot! The Expectations Index rose 5.7 points to a more lukewarm 91.7.

But the Conference Board throws doubts on the “Trump Effect”: The majority of the consumers in the survey responded before the election, it says, and “it appears from the small sample of post-election responses that consumers’ optimism was not impacted by the outcome.”

What, no “Trump Effect?”

We’re intrigued. Gallup’s weekly and notoriously negative Economic Confidence Index spiked into positive territory since Election Day specifically on the Trump Effect, but the Conference Board is denying any Trump Effect and just pegs the bump in its much more positive index on “a more favorable assessment of current conditions coupled with a more optimistic short-term outlook” specifically unrelated to any Trump Effect.

One thing we know: Americans who respond to surveys are, on average, feeling better about the economy. Some of this is certainly the Trump Effect; Republicans and some independents are beaming. But Democrats and some independents are sulking in their corner, and maybe they’ve stopped responding to surveys for the moment?

The fact remains, for many folks, this economy as it pertains to their own lives is a toxic mix of low wages and rising prices. They’re among those that Trump had electrified during the campaign, and they’re feeling better. But for the beneficiaries of the Fed’s policies, the economy has been a rollicking party with huge payoffs for years. And they don’t see anything in a Trump administration that would diminish that in any way. On the contrary.

Then there’s reality, which is what people actually do. And in terms of spending money – that all-important measure of the economy – well, at the kickoff of this holiday spending season, it’s back to Retail Quagmire, with a good dose of gloom for brick-and-mortar stores. Read…  Black-Friday-Weekend Woes End “Trump Effect”




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  102 comments for “Sudden, Infectious Enthusiasm for “Current Economic Conditions” after Trump Called them “Terrible” for Months?

  1. Martin Jose
    November 29, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    Trump as hes a successful business man has now inspired everything hopefully it’s the Midas touch
    Confidence confidence great feeling everywhere

    • nick kelly
      December 1, 2016 at 10:02 pm

      One question from a Canadian: how does revulsion against ‘elites’ or the one percent, express itself by electing a one percent of the one percent of the one percent- someone who commutes not just in a private jet but in a private airliner?
      If this wealth had been borne with grace, maybe, but the man’s whole life is a display of elitism, and catering to those who aspire to same, via luxury branding.

  2. NotSoSure
    November 29, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    It’s not because of the Trump effect, but GDP has been revised up to 3.2% due to stronger “consumer spending”. Obviously Black Friday is just a blip or it’s just not a significant spending day anymore as consumers spread out their buying.

    • November 29, 2016 at 12:55 pm

      But wait … that GDP growth was for Q3, from July through September. The Gallup index was GLOOMY during Q3. But the index surged after November 8. And the Conference Board index covered the end of October/early November.

      Also, a big part of “consumer spending” is made up of health care and housing … not necessarily things that people spend money on because they feel good. Yes, the surging health care costs that we complain so much about are good for GDP!

      • Dan Romig
        November 29, 2016 at 1:22 pm

        And add to the fact that Brazil and Argentina had low soybean harvests. US exports increased 10% adding .83% to GDP growth.

        Soybean exports power U.S. economy to best performance in two years.
        http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN12S0E5

        • Chicken
          November 29, 2016 at 11:24 pm

          A temporary blip.

      • walter map
        November 29, 2016 at 3:39 pm

        “Yes, the surging health care costs that we complain so much about are good for GDP!”

        So is borrowing a trillion dollars and burning it out in the back yard. The U.S. does that two or three times a year.

        People in general aren’t bright, and Amerikans are notoriously easy to sucker.

        • Chicken
          November 29, 2016 at 11:31 pm

          I blame this easy to sucker American on the corporate-owned media constantly misleading them. So far I’m proud they’ve shut their wallets or perhaps they have no choice but either way if things don’t change I expect they have learned not to believe the media.

          Corrupt Hilary would make a great Canadian.

          “The fact remains, for many folks, this economy as it pertains to their own lives is a toxic mix of low wages and rising prices.”

          Amazon has done their part to make Wolf’s observation true.

      • Paul G
        November 29, 2016 at 6:41 pm

        especially with all of the potentially new enrollee’s into the Healthcare exchange…

      • Emanon
        November 30, 2016 at 12:04 am

        Federal spending was supercharged to try to give the economy a “sugar high” for just long enough to get Hillary elected.

        They added $1,423 billion to the national debt in Fiscal Year 2016, which ended September 30.

        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-03/us-ends-fiscal-2016-14-trillion-debt-increase-third-largest-history

        Since then, they’ve added another $360 billion or so, if you go to a “debt clock” site and subtract the current number ($19,932 billion) from the September 30 figure cited in the article ($19,573 billion).

        http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

        That’s about $6 billion a day for the past 60 days. Whoo hoo!

        Small wonder that the numbers for GDP growth and optimism look good – we’ve got a good buzz on right now, but once the brief spurt of money ends we’ll suffer through the inevitable “blood sugar” crash.

        • November 30, 2016 at 1:19 am

          Yes, but… The $1.4 tn in debt issued in fiscal 2016 includes the amounts the gov was forbidden to issue in 2015 due to the debt ceiling fight. To get a feel for how much they really borrowed for each year, you have to add both years together, which combined amounts to $1.7 tn. So on average, the gov issued $850 billion in debt per fiscal year.

          That’s still a lot more debt issued than budget deficit produced. You can find much more detail and charts on this issue here … and don’t forget to read the 198 comments :-)

          http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/01/why-u-s-government-deficit-numbers-are-a-big-lie-national-debt/

      • Tom Kauser
        November 30, 2016 at 11:33 am

        Once the billionaires get off their icebergs and invest in demand by building new widgets in brand new plants while waiting for all the sharecroppers to relocate to the big city to take those high paying jobs of the future?
        Or just hypey fake news!

    • economicminor
      November 29, 2016 at 10:31 pm

      I wonder if the increase in spending they are talking about was all that money that was spent in the last three months of the campaign.

      • Tom Kauser
        November 30, 2016 at 11:42 am

        Trumps armored car pose made two trips to Colo sprgs and he is going to Cincinnati as his first stop on his victory lap
        Not Columbus Ohio? NOT MY prez!

  3. OutLookingIn
    November 29, 2016 at 12:57 pm

    “What happens if the boom ends up with a bang”?

    Just reported by the Case Shiller real estate pricing index, that the price of real estate in the US has now surpassed the July 2006 level, when the boom was at its apex just before the crash.

    Could we now be in the midst of what von Misses called the “blow off top”?
    When irrational exuberance overcomes reality?

    This has the setup to get ugly really fast. When climbing the “wall of worry” the markets rise on an escalator, but when falling take the express elevator down.

    • Petunia
      November 29, 2016 at 4:40 pm

      Broward County, FL north of Miami-Dade seems to be going through the roof, every house seems to be selling for $100K more than last year, and they are building in the 700K-875K range, as well. Nobody makes enough money there to afford these homes. It seems crazy to me.

      • RepubAnon
        November 29, 2016 at 9:27 pm

        I think these units are aimed at foreign money seeking a safe home, and flippers. A line from Men in Black 1 comes to mind: “It’s like the party’s over and the last one to leave gets stuck with the check.”

        My expectation is that some triggering event will occur, say, some expensive condo settlement getting hurt by salt water intrusion, or persistent flooding – or a big hurricane. Someone will sell at a loss, or a big developer will file for bankruptcy – and the stampede to sell will be on…

    • JerryBear
      November 30, 2016 at 2:54 pm

      It is like the whole country has taken a big toot of cocaine. The inevitable crash is not going to be pleasant.

  4. nhz
    November 29, 2016 at 1:05 pm

    US median home price at a new all time high, and consumer confidence is surging. Probably not a coincidence. Unfortunately the charts don’t tell us what confidence level was in 2007 or so, just before the previous bubble collapsed.

    In my country economic confidence has been great for months while most of the economy is limping along. Despite claims to the contrary from the government, real wages for many (except government workers and those on social security) are going down due to inflation in all necessities. But home prices are surging again just like in the US, maybe that explains the high confidence levels? Whatever the cause and whatever these polls really measure, it certainly doesn’t measure or predict real economic activity (I mean real as in other than selling homes to each other at ever increasing prices, financial paper shuffling etc.).

  5. zoomev
    November 29, 2016 at 1:10 pm

    de·lu·sion
    dəˈlo͞oZHən/
    noun
    noun: delusion; plural noun: delusions

    an idiosyncratic belief or impression that is firmly maintained despite being contradicted by what is generally accepted as reality or rational argument, typically a symptom of mental disorder.

    • Edward E
      November 29, 2016 at 3:36 pm

      You may be the only person who learned anything at Trump U.

      • walter map
        November 29, 2016 at 3:47 pm

        Students at Trump U. were all given a very expensive lesson in how to manage their finances. That lesson is about to be extended to the rest of the country, which will be quite unable to afford it.

        Nearly 80% of the population believes in angels and fewer than half can balance their checkbooks. The place is ripe, I tell you. Ripe.

        • Chicken
          November 29, 2016 at 11:41 pm

          Regardless of whether you know what you’re talking about (you make stuff up), the people have smartly chosen a vast improvement over crooked Hillary and her satanic gargoyle friends.

        • November 29, 2016 at 11:51 pm

          >>> “her satanic gargoyle friends”

          That sounds like elegant fiction to me, so also made up :-)

        • Edward E
          November 30, 2016 at 12:07 am

          Trump University taught me if you can make a fraud case disappear for $25 million and a rape case for $? your fans will say it proves you were most certainly always innocent of the charges.

        • Edward E
          November 30, 2016 at 12:56 am

          Oh ‘ell… Billionaire condemns corrupt Hillary’s speeches to the Vampire Squid and then puts a Goldman Sachs partner in charge of the US Treasury? Same billionare builds cabinet of billionaires to save us from the system that created the billionaire oligarchy. What could possibly go wrong?

  6. Kent
    November 29, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    I make it as Trump + the holiday season. And I bet it runs another 6 months or so. When people find out that that he’s not really going to build a wall and he’s not really going to “drain the swamp”, then a real gloom will set in.

    But, enjoy it while its happening.

    • nick kelly
      November 29, 2016 at 3:08 pm

      There probably would be gloom if he began to back off the campaign rants, but it would actually be a plus (or a least not a negative) if a hundred billion was NOT wasted on a Wall.
      Would it create jobs? Sure, so would a pyramid.

      A high- tech fence a couple of hundred yards deep would be a bigger problem for an illegal.
      The solidity of a wall is actually an advantage to a prepared climber. Not that you would waste your preps on a single climber- once ladders were in place you would push over as many as possible.

      Most people are unaware of the important role barbed wire played in WWII. In the Western Desert, where the British eventual 800, 000 men slugged it out with Rommel’s 150, 000 or so, both sides deployed long, deep, bands of wire that looked like rivers from the airplanes that bombed them.
      They were of course. also sewn with anti-personnel and anti-tank mines, but hopefully a ‘smart fence’ would be equipped instead with motion detectors etc.

      It would also be gloomy, but in reality a plus, if he backed off on a blanket of tariffs on China, except where appropriate, like maybe steel.

      Generally, Chinese imports do not compete with US manufactures ( I can hear the gasps over the net)
      A key example is actually the largest single class of Chinese imports, consumer electronics- about 25% of total.

      There is no mainstream US consumer electronics industry (of course in the music biz there are always very pricey specialist outfits, a niche)

      The US was out before China was in, being taken out by Japan 25-30 years ago. The last TV made in the US was in 1995, by Zenith.
      When Starbucks sells you a latte, it may be making more than the supplier of the 32 inch LED flat panel who sells to an assembler.
      This is a very low margin biz.

      Next category: budget apparel, shoes etc. about 17 % of total.
      Is anyone salivating over this one?
      One thing electronic assembly and clothing- panel assembly have in common- no guy is going to be interested- although he might persuade the wife.
      After these big categories come toys, kitchen utensils etc. or Walmart stuff where you won’t see much from the US, or two actual US competitors, Japan and Germany. (About a year or so ago, the yen took a big hit and within a week the lease on a Mazda 3 dropped from 319 per month to 269 or so, a huge move in this cutthroat field. Also see Jetta from 16, 900)

      China is competing in Walmart with Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, etc. in apparel and South Korea in electronics and small appliances.
      Tariffs on China won’t create many US jobs- although it might create jobs for these competitors.
      But it would hurt the US lower and middle- income earners with higher prices.

      Note in the post above: confidence hit a high in 2008, just before the crash.

      • Winston
        November 29, 2016 at 4:39 pm

        “A high- tech fence a couple of hundred yards deep would be a bigger problem for an illegal.”

        The overnight change of a few words in the US Code covering the legal hiring of aliens would stop illegal immigration cold and result in a mass exodus. The POTUS is specified within that code as being the single person responsible for making the code is effective and changing ti if it isn’t.

        Talk of a wall as the solution only shows the level of lip service which continues to be spewed on the problem. Why only lip service and stupid, costly, non-solutions like a wall? Simple. Pols (primarily Dems) want a rapidly reproducing voting bloc dependent on government and businesses want cheap, hard working labor that can’t complain about working conditions whose “worker benefits” like medical care come from the taxpayer along with EBT and WIC cards.

        See if you can find the loophole one could drive a 20-ton truck full of illegals through (after closing the huge dropdown asking for donations on the page). I did, easily.:

        https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1324a

        • Kent
          November 29, 2016 at 4:57 pm

          Winston,

          ” Pols (primarily Dems) want a rapidly reproducing voting bloc dependent on government”

          Agreed, but don’t let Reps off the hook. I think you resolve that with “and businesses want cheap, hard working labor that can’t complain about working conditions”.

          And your solution “The overnight change of a few words in the US Code covering the legal hiring of aliens would stop illegal immigration cold” is absolutely spot on. Which is why no one, from either party, has ever suggested it.

          And while I hope for the best from Mr. Trump, he, unfortunately, hasn’t mentioned it either.

        • Smingles
          November 30, 2016 at 2:01 pm

          “The overnight change of a few words in the US Code covering the legal hiring of aliens would stop illegal immigration cold and result in a mass exodus.”

          But illegal immigration itself is one giant boogeyman. Illegal immigration has a marginal impact on the daily lives of Americans.

        • Winston
          November 30, 2016 at 6:35 pm

          “But illegal immigration itself is one giant boogeyman. Illegal immigration has a marginal impact on the daily lives of Americans.”

          WRONG! Rapidly reproducing demographics significantly change the POLITICAL demographics of a country over time. The illegal demographic is predominantly big government Dem. Do you think the Dems would have such a love affair with illegals and poor minorities in general trapped within a cycle of self-destructive dependence on the government teat if they predominantly voted Rep?

          My post on the required, simple US code mod is found here:

          https://mishtalk.com/2016/11/30/white-anger/#comment-62845

          Date time stamp of that post since I can’t link directly to just it:

          November 30, 2016 5:00:55 at 5:00 PM

        • Winston
          November 30, 2016 at 9:29 pm

          Here’s what the Mexican Constitution specifically says about demographic protection:

          MEXICO VS. UNITED STATES: MEXICAN IMMIGRATION LAWS ARE TOUGHER

          https://factreal.wordpress.com/2010/05/08/mexico-vs-united-states-mexican-immigration-laws-are-tougher/

          Quote: Foreigners may be barred from the country if their presence upsets “the equilibrium of the national demographics.”

      • Petunia
        November 29, 2016 at 5:21 pm

        We went to the closeout sale at the last chain cd/dvd store in town and the amount of junk being sold there was unbelievable. More than half the store was toys, tee shirts, brick a brack, branded with some logo. The merchandise was so awful, you see why they went broke. Even the music and movies had a dated feel to them. I still can’t believe that the music business peaked in my youth.

        Bought a copy of “The Martian” which revived my hope in America, great movie.

      • Dan Romig
        November 30, 2016 at 7:42 am

        Nick, well stated regarding US manufacturing.

        I recently purchased some Calphalon ‘Select’ ceramic saute pans (which I would recommend), and sure enough, they’re made in China; not Toledo Ohio.

        Most of the high end Japanese audio manufactures now build their products in China or Malaysia as well, and there are only a few companies in this business that are still in the USA. My Magnepan loudspeakers are made just up the road in White Bear Lake Minnesota!

    • night-train
      November 30, 2016 at 2:34 am

      From what I have seen, Mr. Trump isn’t draining the swamp. He is restocking it.

      • Smingles
        November 30, 2016 at 12:44 pm

        His diehard followers– the ones who are paying attention, at least– are freaking out right now and feeling very duped. There is already some serious buyers remorse, the honeymoon is over, and it’s not even been one month.

        Some of those who are a little bit more delusional are still trying to rationalize how he’s “draining the swamp” by filling it with people who “know the swamp” so they can help him fix it… that’s hysterical. A Goldman Sachs alum heading up the Treasury is going to drain the swamp… in other news, there’s a bridge in Brooklyn that’s on sale.

        • Winston
          November 30, 2016 at 9:33 pm

          They’re not old enough to know the old Who song which had the line, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

    • JerryBear
      November 30, 2016 at 3:07 pm

      The level of delusional thinking on the part of Trump’s followers borders on the psychotic. This man could hardly utter three sentences in a row without one of them containing an obvious lie yet these people are so pathetic they think he is committed to them and will keep his promises. Trump will NEVER betray his billionaire class brothers! The level of brazen falsehood on Trump’s part and grotesque gullibility on his follower’s part is reminiscent of Joseph Goebbels and the Ministry of Propaganda during the Third Reich. It is based on the same “Big Lie” technique. Repeat an outrageous falsehood often enough and the foolish and gullible will swallow every lying word!

      • Petunia
        November 30, 2016 at 6:08 pm

        I always thought Trump was running because the economy was so bad even he couldn’t make money anymore. So it doesn’t surprise me the swamp is getting bigger. However, how would Hillary have been an improvement with Bill getting foot massages on the roof top apartment of his presidential library. When Rush calls it the presidential library and massage parlor, it’s not even funny anymore.

        • night-train
          December 1, 2016 at 3:29 am

          Ms. Petunia. Your hatred of the Clintons is pathological. I guess 20 years of daily Limbaugh will do that. The majority of your comments show you to be an intelligent and informed person. But you hang on to the Clintons like a hungry dog with a bone.

  7. Nik
    November 29, 2016 at 1:38 pm

    Aloha Friends..may I remind you that these POLLS are merely an ‘at the moment’ Presentation of FEELINGS and Opinions..correct? Wolf perhaps some of the discrepancy in the Different Poll numbers is the number of people Involved,as well as,they both have a slightly Different ‘Calculus’ of Demographic Factors within their Statistical models.thanks for reading,aloha

  8. nick kelly
    November 29, 2016 at 1:41 pm

    Let’s see the index turned positive in 2008, just before the largest crash since the Depression, but has been negative during a new housing boom and a run to a new high in the Dow.
    Sounds like a reverse indicator.

    And now it’s turned positive.

    • November 29, 2016 at 1:58 pm

      I think you misunderstood. The index STARTED in Jan 2008. That was the first reading. It was still positive. But it didn’t rise, it plunged. In other words, it started on the way down. It bottomed out a month after Lehman and AIG had collapsed (Sep 2008) but stayed in the -60 neighborhood until March 2009.

  9. r cohn
    November 29, 2016 at 2:24 pm

    Lets examine what has happened in the last 3 weeks
    1 Bonds got killed
    2 Stocks rallied over 3%
    3 The dollar rallied
    4.Gold sold off
    5.Inflation expectations went up
    6.Trump made a number of key appointments
    7. The war between the Democrats and Republicans heated up

    What are the implications of these events
    Rising interest rates increased mortgage rates with obvious negative implications for the housing market
    Rising interest rates also guarantee larger federal deficits,even without the expected increased spending
    Higher interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow money.Highly indebted companies may find that these costs will eat greatly into their income.
    P/E’s go down.

    A stronger dollar increases the price of exports and decreases the price of imports.By itself a stronger dollar is deflationary for the US
    Because a stronger dollar increases the prices of our exports,companies with exports will be negatively impacted along with earnings derived from such exports.
    Conversely because the price of imports go down,foreign companies will find it easier to sell goods in the US

    The idea that Democrats will get together with Republicans to forge programs which will benefit all Americans is a fairy tale.From Bernie Sander’s comments to the recent recount vote only in states that Trump leads,it is easy to conclude that we are entering a period of discord if not political

    I hated(and hate) the monetization policies of the FED,the restart of the cold war with Russia ,the use of executive orders of the Obama administration and the growing number of rules promulgated by our burgeoning bureaucracy
    Hillary was the epitome of the status quo with a predilection towards warmongering and lying .Trump was and is a conman with an egotistical personality who does not give a damn about anyone but himself.
    As soon as Trump takes office reality will set in and such polls as this one will reflect reality and not hopes

    • Tom Kauser
      November 29, 2016 at 2:37 pm

      Kool-aid gas smelling like roses?
      Better get a stronger Rx before pocket costs rise?

  10. Intosh
    November 29, 2016 at 3:26 pm

    “This assessment is particularly intriguing since Trump lambasted the Fed-fueled “fake” stock market rally throughout the campaign and proclaimed over and over again that the economy was in “terrible shape.” Many Americans obviously believed it. And now this sudden switcheroo?”

    Goes to show that most people “think” emotionally, not rationally and even less critically.

    • Jas
      November 29, 2016 at 7:20 pm

      Most Americans pay no attention to the stock market since they have no skin in the game. The poll is a perception of their present outlook and their future outlook. When middle class (if it still exists) realize that Trump is not going to improve their quality of life and is not bringing those jobs back. Giving the wealthy a huge tax break at the expense of everyone else privatize medicare etc, the polls will again turn negative.

  11. RD Blakeslee
    November 29, 2016 at 3:30 pm

    My take is that the electorate’s feelings about ‘most anything are more cheerful, now that Obama’s high-handed regime is seen as defeated.

    If you asked them about the probability of man-made climate change, you would get the same optimistic uptick.

    • night-train
      November 30, 2016 at 2:40 am

      Just a point of clarification please. If you consider Obama’s Administration being high-handed. What did you call the Bush-Cheney Administration?

      • RD Blakeslee
        November 30, 2016 at 8:11 am

        Less high-handed.

        • Arctic Melt
          November 30, 2016 at 9:44 am

          Reality calling RD…. Reality calling RD….
          Reality calling RD…

        • Smingles
          November 30, 2016 at 12:53 pm

          Executive Orders by President

          Ronald Reagan, 381
          Bill Clinton, 364
          George W. Bush, 291
          Barack Obama, 263

          Of course, I didn’t expect you to know that. I also didn’t expect you to know those “high-handed” executive orders include things like Executive Order 13513: banning texting while driving for Federal employees who are using government owned vehicles, or are on government business… quelle horreur! What a dictator!

  12. michael
    November 29, 2016 at 4:02 pm

    Defeated but still around mucking things up. Imagine how elated the populace will be when we no longer have to listen or see him in late January.

    • Arctic Melt
      November 30, 2016 at 9:46 am

      Michael…. you have no clue what’s coming.

      • JerryBear
        November 30, 2016 at 3:37 pm

        Benjamin Franklin put it this way, “Experience keeps a dear school but a fool will learn in no other!”. Naiveté goeth before a fall…..

  13. Petunia
    November 29, 2016 at 4:13 pm

    Everybody we know is extremely happy Trump is in office. I was in Best Buy yesterday and there weren’t many people, but the people there were definitely buying. One lady had a cart with 2 tvs, and most of the people in the store were already lined up at the cashier. Was in Goodyear Tires today and the guy was hiring.

    • Kent
      November 29, 2016 at 5:08 pm

      Unlike, I guess, the flyover states, it is booming here in east central florida. Lot’s of jobs, a few of them even pretty decent paying. Housing prices still doable.

      I was Christmas shopping in Orlando this weekend and everywhere I went it was mobbed. Orlando is the population center of the area and is traditionally democratic. It still is, but Hillary barely beat Trump when she should have creamed him. The differential was essentially why Florida went for Trump.

      While I know a lot of Trump supporters (and zero Hillary supporters), I really believe that Trump would have lost to either Obama or Sanders in Florida. People despise Clinton. Many are ok with Obama, and a lot of people love Sanders. Just personal speculation.

      • Petunia
        November 29, 2016 at 5:28 pm

        Most of the Latinos in the Orlando area are Puerto Ricans not Cubans. Due to the horrendous financial problems on the island they have migrated to the mainline to traditional Puerto Rican areas. While they are mainly democrats, they currently feel abandoned by the party. Hillary lost many of those voters.

      • Smingles
        November 30, 2016 at 1:44 pm

        Bernie had the highest favorability ratings of any candidate (while Trump and Hillary were #1 and #2 lowest) and was reportedly beating all Republican candidates while he was still in the race, if I recall correctly.

        Hillary might have been the only Democratic candidate who could lose to Trump. And yet the DNC, in their infinite wisdom, decided to attempt the coronation anyways.

        My take is unless we see a big shake up in Democratic leadership, they didn’t learn their lesson. While Americans are growing more socially liberal, these issues are simply not their main concern when they are struggling to put food on the table.

        Given they put Pelosi as minority leader again instead of Tim Ryan, who was the rare Democrat elected in a Ohio district that went for Trump, my guess is they didn’t learn their lesson.

        • JerryBear
          November 30, 2016 at 3:42 pm

          You are right. If the Democratic Party wants to survive, they need a “Night Of The Long Knives” to purge their hopelessly out of touch and despised leadership in a swift coup. If this does not happen, the Party will fade, and it will be time to form a new party.

        • Petunia
          November 30, 2016 at 6:13 pm

          Here’s my post election poll, my millennial would have voted for Sanders and all his friends as well. Instead, half of them stayed home and the other half split between Hillary and Trump. The DNC could have gotten them all. Now that they are all wiser the DNC thinks they can con them back into the fold. They are all looking to go third party now.

    • nick kelly
      November 29, 2016 at 7:22 pm

      We do know that over half the US electorate isn’t happy.

      Everybody you know? Maybe I have a broad acquaintance- I’ve had friends who voted NDP (socialist) but told me privately they were communists although I’m a right- winger myself (see my rants about overpaid public sector)

      The widespread, although not universal contempt for Trump in Canada has less to do with his ‘policies’ whatever they turn out to be and
      everything to do with his personality.
      A woman wants to go to the bathroom during a debate and this is ‘disgusting’?
      BTW: it is amazing that the only unvarnished insider look at Trump, ‘Trumped’ by former right- hand man John O’Donnell has not seen wider coverage.
      One tidbit: Trump lost 3 high execs in a helicopter crash. After a few days of ‘it could have been me!’ he starts to use them as post-humous negotiators.
      At their level, deals were often in a verbal stage and they had real friends among the contractors. Soon Trump is saying things like : ‘Gee, John told me tiling the atrium was included’
      The friends don’t always feel comfortable contradicting the deceased and Trump has an edge.
      We know you and a lot of others don’t like Hillary- but what do you actually know about Trump?
      Both the office and the country have been demeaned.
      The question is how far.

      • Petunia
        November 29, 2016 at 9:36 pm

        I don’t pretend to know anything other than the public Trump. I also only know the public Clintons, and that ain’t pretty.

        • night-train
          November 30, 2016 at 2:45 am

          Just wondering, how could you vote without investigating either candidate beyond their public profile? Were you just unhappy and wanted to blow the whole thing up?

        • Petunia
          November 30, 2016 at 10:34 am

          NT,
          What else does a voter have besides the public profile? I know what the Clintons have done publicly and what Trump has done publicly and that’s what we have in the balance.

      • Chicken
        December 1, 2016 at 9:41 am

        I’m not sure MSM brainwashing always adds up, communists don’t like a president they fear might not inflame a cold war, Putin or Russia, wonder which it is do you guess?

        Perhaps they just prefer status-quo….. (which has been fantastic for the elite).

    • Arctic Melt
      November 30, 2016 at 9:52 am

      Everyone I know is sick and depressed that a person with orange hair who represents the Oligarchs is about to unleash hell on our country. We are in deep trouble! The rest of the world is horrified! We are about to learn an important lesson that Germany learned in the 1940s.

      • JerryBear
        November 30, 2016 at 3:46 pm

        When Trump’s followers finally realize how cruelly they were duped by their false messiah there will be hell to pay. If they can combine with Bernie’s followers then the revolution will begin for real.

    • Smingles
      November 30, 2016 at 1:48 pm

      Trump isn’t in office yet. Thanks Obama!

  14. walter map
    November 29, 2016 at 5:34 pm

    Has it ever occurred to you that federal policy is to not restore the economy? And to prevent people from having decent jobs? And so forth? If people could actually earn the money to buy the things they need the banksters wouldn’t be able to turn people into debt peons; employees into wage slaves; etc.

    You have to admit, this does explain a lot of things. And it works on many levels.

    Pfft.

    • Petunia
      November 29, 2016 at 6:00 pm

      The outsourcing of jobs to China was a way of exporting the inflation of the 70’s and 80’s out of the country. Now the Chinese are exporting the inflation back out to us by overpaying for all the real estate and commercial assets they buy. In the not to distant future every asset will be owned by the bankers and the Chinese. When that happens, it’s game over, invasion by other means.

      • walter map
        November 29, 2016 at 8:33 pm

        Yikes. Trump voter, amirite?

        • Petunia
          November 29, 2016 at 9:30 pm

          Was somebody else running?

        • walter map
          November 30, 2016 at 12:27 pm

          Ripe, I tell you. Ripe.

      • RD Blakeslee
        November 30, 2016 at 8:18 am

        “In the not to distant future every asset will be owned by the bankers and the Chinese. When that happens, it’s game over, invasion by other means.” – Petunia

        England built an empire that way – “Mercantilism”.

        I suspect you are right – others disagree – see commentary:

        http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/27/china-inc-billionaires-use-global-buyout-binge-to-dodge-capital-controls/

    • jas
      November 29, 2016 at 7:25 pm

      There is no doubt that debt is an instrument of control. Extend and pretend, minimum monthly payments extended to infinity keep the debtor in a state of permanent subordination. When your too busy trying to put food on the table, you overlook what’s going on in the world. It’s then a lot easier to tell people what is wrong in their world when their too busy to find out for themselves.

    • Chicken
      November 30, 2016 at 12:41 am

      So now you’re coming around finally, corporate-owned government and MSM are wealth extraction tools of the elite.

      See how they react when they feel challenged?

  15. Uncle Frank
    November 29, 2016 at 7:10 pm

    It’s the cheap gasoline. At $1.68 per gallon confidence should be sky high.

  16. michael
    November 29, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    Sorry Frank you obviously do not live in california

  17. Chicken
    November 30, 2016 at 12:27 am

    Polls have proven themselves unreliable to great extent, the vast majority of material published by corporate-owned MSM is carefully written to mislead.

  18. Julian the Apostate
    November 30, 2016 at 3:57 am

    The polarization in this country is a problem yet to be solved. Unlike Petunia I did research Trump before he became a household name, before political aspirations and The Apprentice. He is a successful businessman in one of the most cutthroat cities in America. He’s egotistical? Well so am I. He’s looking for an edge? So was Josey Wales. It’s the difference between life and death. He’s just one man, but the so was John D. Rockefeller or Sir Winston Churchill. And he hasn’t DONE anything yet. Wait please until he screws up to criticize him. Everyone is analyzing mere speculation as to what he will or won’t do. It’s taken us 167 years to get to this inflection point. If we CAN go back at all to something akin to what the Framers built, it will take decades. Take a deep breath. Relax. On both sides. Don’t bother to count to ten. Think of Kitten Lopez and smile.

    • nick kelly
      November 30, 2016 at 5:46 am

      He’s settled the claim that he ran a fraudulent university. He ran it right to the wire with years of delaying tactics but with court date set for November 28 time was up.
      Of course, Erich Schneiderman, AG of New York State couldn’t know that the towel would be thrown in and had to have the case ready.

      He hasn’t had time to do more than unearth the latest body- the Trump Charitable Foundation, it now turns out is also a fake. It was NOT EVEN A REGISTERED CHARITY.
      It’s been illegally soliciting money for years, but has now been served a Cease Order.
      Apart from paying for hundreds of thousands in Trump’s legal bills, for a six foot high painting of The Founder, and 7 (seven) dollars for his kid’s scout fees etc., it has made donations.
      It gave 150K to the Palm Beach Policemans’ Ball a worthy cause.
      The Founder himself solicited on its behalf, with one donor giving 50 of the 150. But the eventual donation mentioned only the Trump Foundation.
      Then the police decided to hold the gala at Mar-a- Lago for which Trump billed them 350K.
      Note: Foundation makes donation- Trump gets rent.

      It’s early days on this file but a lawyer who is a 20 year veteran defending clients with dubious IRS charitable write-offs describes it as the ‘most blatant self- dealing by a charity I’ve ever seen.’

      BTW: if you haven’t read ‘Trumped’ you haven’t researched Trump. The book also goes into detail about Trump’s efforts to suppress it, which O’Donnell reported to the Gaming Commission.
      The latest info from Tony Schwarz- the writer of The Art of the Deal is also revealing. Says he regrets it but needed the money.

      Trump was un-interviewable. He would break it off after a minute and Schwarz was on the verge of quitting when he hit on the idea of listening to Trump’s calls on an extension. He did this with Trump’s permission but reports that Trump often listens to guests without their knowing.
      Incredibly and kind of funny for someone who has probably never read a book, Trump now claims HE wrote the book.

      So why did he give Schwarz half the royalties?

    • Edward E
      November 30, 2016 at 10:01 am

      MAGA = make alt-right gullible again

      https://youtu.be/OqA3hpTTEz0

    • Petunia
      November 30, 2016 at 10:46 am

      I take exception to the claim that I didn’t research Trump before I voted for him. I never saw the Apprentice but I read a NYC newspaper everyday I lived in NY and even after, about 30 years worth. I read his bio when it came out and Ivana’s. But more importantly I read Roy Cohn’s bio and the history of NYC real estate empires. Some of the latter sources are better Trump indicators then the direct sources.

      This also allowed me to keep track of the Clintons. Who would vote for the people that deindustrialized America with NAFTA? Who would vote for the people that imprisoned black men and condemned black women and children to live in poverty? Who would vote for a woman who attacked the women her husband sexually abused? As my mother always told me, “Tell me who you walk with and I will tell you who you are.”

      • nick kelly
        November 30, 2016 at 2:46 pm

        ‘It is not Trump’s outrageousness that makes him worthy of interest. More important is that he has succeeded, like no one else, in converting celebrity into profit. Somehow he has done this even as a substantial proportion of the population, arguably more than 50 percent, consider him a buffoon if not a menace. What does it say about Trump that he is so undeniably successful by the two measures that matter the most to him—money and fame? And what, pray tell, does it say about us?’

        ***
        By Michael D’Antonio, the author of the only authorized bio of Trump: ‘Donald Trump; Never Enough’

        And now I am taking a break from this debate. For one thing I’m not sure WR wants a financial site turned into a political mud fest (although Petunia has been polite)
        And although I’ve tried to stop using the expression so much ‘it is what it is’
        What it is, we’ll find out- because as far as I’ve been able to read, no one, right or left, has any idea.

    • JerryBear
      November 30, 2016 at 3:56 pm

      Oh, your advice is “What Me Worry” ? Sounds like you are obliviously dancing for joy on the side of a rumbling volcano. And how about “If we CAN go back at all to something akin to what the Framers built”? Why in hell would we want to go back to being a small impoverished agrarian nation where the average man spent dawn to dusk holding on to a plow and looking at the wrong end of an ox? It bothers me when people long for a small diminished America! That goes beyond reactionary into the delusional.

  19. Borgb
    November 30, 2016 at 8:54 am

    Chicken,what did you mean Hillary would make a great Canadian.You just insulted an entire country.

    • Petunia
      November 30, 2016 at 10:48 am

      Even Arkansas didn’t vote for Hillary. It doesn’t get worse than that.

      • Chicken
        November 30, 2016 at 1:09 pm

        Hopefully he’s got a few nasty surprises up his sleeve for these suck-ups.

        “CNBC

        The rally in bank stocks has priced in higher interest rates, but there is much more upside in the sector’s shares from the economic growth that will come from the Trump administration’s plans for deregulation and lower taxes, according to Deutsche Bank. Goldman Sachs will be one of the particular beneficiaries of the second part of this rally, Deutsche said, upgrading the share to buy from hold.”

        • Smingles
          November 30, 2016 at 1:31 pm

          He hired a Goldman Sachs alum to head the Treasury… the only people who will be getting nasty surprises are his base, as promise after promise are reneged upon.

          Who would you rather for Secretary of State? D.C. insider Mitt Romney, who Trump called a pathetic loser who should retire from politics… or David Petraeus, who pleaded guilty and was sentenced for leaking classified info to a booty call… which is so many levels worse than Hillary using a separate email server…

    • Chicken
      November 30, 2016 at 12:21 pm

      Thanks for making me feel better about our northern neighbor! :) I hear a lot of grumbling from up there that has me deeply concerned.

  20. economicminor
    November 30, 2016 at 12:01 pm

    Inquiring minds want to know: Why is it that the government says the economy grew when zero hedge says spending declined and savings went up? Which government stats do we believe?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-30/us-savings-rate-surged-pre-election-spending-slowed-weakens-q3-gdp

    How can both be true? Unless as I said before, the increase in spending was all about the election campaigning and not about the consumers.. Also read that the government spending was way up during those months. I guess in trying to goose the economy to help its friends get re-elected… So I guess I will wait to see.. Right now I am astounded at the numbers presented.

    Must be needed for the FED to cover raising rates.

    Everyone does realize when the gubbermint talks income, that is medium income.. So when the upper end gets huge income increases, it does raise the medium number even though the average worker hasn’t had a raise.

    Fake news! Seems to be what we get.. or at a minimum, biased or twisted or propagandized news..

    • Chicken
      November 30, 2016 at 12:28 pm

      Yes, skate to where the puck will be. I thought you had a good point concerning election spending, no telling how much foreign and corporate elite money was funneled through Hilary’s campaign, my understanding is Soros was a huge contributor?

      I’m pretty sure Soros is one of the Davos elite.

      Anyway, this money should show up somewhere on balance sheets of MSM, no? Or perhaps Wolf’s bank account? :)

      • Smingles
        November 30, 2016 at 1:19 pm

        “I’m pretty sure Soros is one of the Davos elite.”

        Then maybe you’ll find it interesting that Steve Mnuchin, the guy Trump just appointed to be Sec of Treasury, is a Goldman Sachs alum and former Soros employee.

        Why would a crocodile drain the swamp? Make Americans Gullible Again.

        • Chicken
          December 1, 2016 at 9:49 am

          I’m not sure I’ll enjoy or support an GS appointee, rather disappointing. Might be the next 8 years is more like the previous than I’d hoped. We’ll see.

          Hopefully it’s not status-quo.

        • economicminor
          December 1, 2016 at 11:18 am

          I am very sure that the next 8 year will not be like the last.

          New swamp with new creatures. And the imbalances are so much greater than they were. The world is going to change a lot in the next decade. I wish I thought the changes will end up for the better but I don’t. I hope I’m wrong!

        • Edward E
          December 1, 2016 at 4:21 pm

          I’m hearing that it’s down to either neofok Bolton or Mr foxit Romney for Secretary of State stuff.

          Make America Grandiose Anarchy

    • Petunia
      November 30, 2016 at 12:37 pm

      When I want to see how things are going, I go to all my favorite thrift stores to see who’s shopping and who’s donating. Two years ago, I saw many middle class people with nice cars buying their kids back to school clothing. Now it’s more working class, many millennials, and the really poor shopping. I was in Goodwill before the election and they gave me a 50% off coupon good until next year. How’s that for an economic indicator.

      • Chicken
        November 30, 2016 at 1:19 pm

        I believe you’re sighting improvement, if the thrift is passing out coupons. I too go to the thrift b/c they occasionally have quality items no longer available in this fake plastic world despite the supposed concern for the environment.

        Not often enough though, I’m avoiding military contractor traffic jams.

  21. economicminor
    November 30, 2016 at 1:24 pm

    I just got this email from Linkedin

    “Explore job openings in Medford, Oregon Area
    More than 2,000 new jobs are available now.”

    On the local FB page someone asked if any one new who was hiring and even in my small town there are business looking for workers. None of us old foggies that live here want to work and in many cases can’t do an 8 hr shift if we wanted to. I couldn’t do a 6 hr shift more than one day. Then I have to rest up. Leaves me wondering if all the economic hoopula isn’t correct.. Although totally out of touch with reality.

    Of course, I can’t imagine living on even $15/hrs and I know that most restaurants and retail don’t pay that much so?

    With the inflation numbers I have seen including the cost of a roof over a person’s head, it just seems to me that the imbalances have gotten so great that the cost of actually employing someone at a living wage is beyond the system’s capacity..

    Why? My guess is that there is so much taken out in interest on all those Trillion$ that has caused the imbalances.. To fix the problem the system needs to purge itself of all those payments to people and institutions that do nothing but suck the life out of it.

  22. milking institute
    November 30, 2016 at 9:27 pm

    It’s the Ronald Reagan Effect 0.2,unfortunately people don’t realize the price that will have to be payed first for the incompetent and anti Business Policies of the Obama Regime. just like the early 80’s after a disastrous Carter Administration,people were ecstatic to enter into a new Area. It took another 2 years for Reagan’s Policies to work through the system and the Economy was BOOMING,AFTER it had to go through a nasty Recession. what I’m trying to say is: NOTHING has changed yet and the Piper hasn’t been payed,Wall Street has been completely wrong throughout History and will be wrong again,plan accordingly….

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