Powell on the End of QT (“We’re Not so Far Away but There’s a Ways to Go”), Shifting Assets to T-Bills, and Selling MBS

by Wolf Richter • Oct 14, 2025 • 25 Comments

Bonus: His doomsday scenario if Congress forces the Fed to stop paying interest to banks on their reserve balances.

The Huge US Bond Market and the US Dollar Blow Off the “Debasement Trade”

by Wolf Richter • Oct 13, 2025 • 104 Comments

The bond market has taken the opposite bet, and the dollar has strengthened.

10-Year Treasury Yield Drops to One-Month Low on Trump’s China Threat, Bond Market Sees One Rate Cut this Year, Deficit-Funding Shifts to T-Bills

by Wolf Richter • Oct 11, 2025 • 53 Comments

Despite the big drop on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher than shortly before the September rate cut.

Is it Really Different this Time?

by Wolf Richter • Oct 10, 2025 • 190 Comments

AI is huge. But so is the mania of hype, hocus-pocus deals, and piles of real money fortified by leverage that caused stock prices to explode.

Amazing How the Money-Printing World Has Reversed

by Wolf Richter • Oct 9, 2025 • 77 Comments

Balance Sheet as % of GDP: Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and Central Banks of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden

ECB’s QT Has Knocked €3.28 trillion off its Balance Sheet (far More than the Fed’s QT) and Accelerated QT Further this Year

by Wolf Richter • Oct 8, 2025 • 52 Comments

Gold mark-to-market quarterly adjustment: +€158 billion for Q3 on gold’s price spike, largest ever write-up.

Spike in Refis, Triggered by Small Dip in Mortgage Rates, Fizzled. Demand for Mortgages to Purchase Homes Still in Deepfreeze

by Wolf Richter • Oct 8, 2025 • 69 Comments

Mortgage rates are higher than before the rate cuts started over a year ago.

Bank of Japan Balance Sheet QT Accelerates: -$148 Billion in Q3, -$407 Billion fr. Peak. Will Sell ETFs, REITs. Sold all Bank Stocks

by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2025 • 40 Comments

Its holdings of commercial paper & corporate bonds are nearly gone. The BOJ is cleaning up its balance sheet.

Home Prices in the Largest Countries of Europe Range from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that Dropped back to 2010

by Wolf Richter • Oct 6, 2025 • 81 Comments

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal.

Jobs Report to Get Hit by 100,000 Federal Government “Deferred Resignations” on top of the Jobs Already Shed. But ICE Is Hiring

by Wolf Richter • Oct 4, 2025 • 74 Comments

Bringing federal job losses to over 200,000 since January. Excluding federal & state, nonfarm payrolls haven’t been all that bad.

It Took the Longest Time to Sell a Home since at Least 2016, if it Sold at all, in Many Markets

by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2025 • 53 Comments

Examples: California, Texas, Florida, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona. In other states, homes still sell faster than before Covid, such as New York and Georgia (barely).

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$15 Billion in September, -$2.38 Trillion from Peak, to $6.59 Trillion

by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2025 • 70 Comments

The Standing Repo Facility got a bit of use on Sept. 15 (corporate tax day) amid minor liquidity strains in the repo market.

Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Plunges to Lowest since 1994, as USD Exchange Rates Tank, Central Banks Diversify

by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2025 • 51 Comments

The rise of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.”

Tariff Cash Keeps Rolling In: Record $30 Billion in September

by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2025 • 101 Comments

Corporate profits, after exploding in the high-inflation era, fell this year. Tariffs are very difficult to pass on after the price spikes in 2020-2022.

ADP Employment Report: -32,000 Jobs in September after -43,000 Annual Adjustment to Benchmark ADP data to BLS Data

by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2025 • 66 Comments

Pre-benchmarking jobs: +11,000. Private-sector measures not immune to data mess. Trend shows “employers have been cautious with hiring.”

“AI Makes Past Hype Cycles Look Tame”: PitchBook on the Stunning Venture Capital Mania for AI

by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 120 Comments

At these valuations, “exit hurdles become exceptionally large.”

The Labor Market in New Era of Low Churn, Uneasy Calm, Government Job Losses, and Crackdown on Illegal Immigration

by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 20 Comments

Government job openings plunged 23% year-over-year. Federal government hires plunged 33% year-over-year.

The “Lock-in Effect” and Mortgage Rates: Update on Unwinding a Phenomenon that Wrecked the Housing Market

by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2025 • 129 Comments

This is going to take a long time to get worked out.

Pending Home Sales Rise from Near-Record Lows, Zigzag along those Lows, -43% from 2020, -30% from 2019: Charts Speak

by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2025 • 47 Comments

A bigger rise in March got more than wiped out by a drop in April. That’s how it goes with zigzagging month-to-month data.

Corporate Profits in Nonfinancial Industries Plunge by Most Ever in $, amid Massive Downward Revisions

by Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2025 • 93 Comments

But profits are still huge after the pandemic free-money spike, except in auto manufacturing where losses pile up. Financial industry profits hit new record.