Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Plunges to Lowest since 1994, as USD Exchange Rates Tank, Central Banks Diversify

by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2025 • 0 Comments

The rise of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.”

Tariff Cash Keeps Rolling In: Record $30 Billion in September

by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2025 • 61 Comments

Corporate profits, after exploding in the high-inflation era, fell this year. Tariffs are very difficult to pass on after the price spikes in 2020-2022.

ADP Employment Report: -32,000 Jobs in September after -43,000 Annual Adjustment to Benchmark ADP data to BLS Data

by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2025 • 56 Comments

Pre-benchmarking jobs: +11,000. Private-sector measures not immune to data mess. Trend shows “employers have been cautious with hiring.”

“AI Makes Past Hype Cycles Look Tame”: PitchBook on the Stunning Venture Capital Mania for AI

by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 110 Comments

At these valuations, “exit hurdles become exceptionally large.”

The Labor Market in New Era of Low Churn, Uneasy Calm, Government Job Losses, and Crackdown on Illegal Immigration

by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 20 Comments

Government job openings plunged 23% year-over-year. Federal government hires plunged 33% year-over-year.

The “Lock-in Effect” and Mortgage Rates: Update on Unwinding a Phenomenon that Wrecked the Housing Market

by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2025 • 123 Comments

This is going to take a long time to get worked out.

Pending Home Sales Rise from Near-Record Lows, Zigzag along those Lows, -43% from 2020, -30% from 2019: Charts Speak

by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2025 • 47 Comments

A bigger rise in March got more than wiped out by a drop in April. That’s how it goes with zigzagging month-to-month data.

Corporate Profits in Nonfinancial Industries Plunge by Most Ever in $, amid Massive Downward Revisions

by Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2025 • 93 Comments

But profits are still huge after the pandemic free-money spike, except in auto manufacturing where losses pile up. Financial industry profits hit new record.

Inflation Is in Services despite Powell’s Denials: PCE Price Index for Core Services Accelerated Further. Durable Goods Prices Fell for 2nd Month

by Wolf Richter • Sep 26, 2025 • 121 Comments

The 12-month overall PCE & core PCE price indices, which the Fed uses for its target, are worse than a year ago.

Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Crushed Further, Supply at 2016 Levels. Condo Sales Near Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Levels

by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2025 • 65 Comments

Price declines and increases vary dramatically in different markets.

What Slowdown? Q2 GDP Growth Revised Up to Hot Zone of 3.8%, Stronger Consumer Spending & Private Fixed Investment

by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2025 • 57 Comments

Government consumption and inventories were a bigger drag though. All adjusted for inflation.

Inventory of New Completed Single-Family Homes Jumps to Highest since 2009, but Sales of New Homes See Outlier Spike in the South, Prices Skid: Some Thoughts

by Wolf Richter • Sep 24, 2025 • 36 Comments

Homebuilders rant about the tough market.

The 14 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -24%) through August

by Wolf Richter • Sep 23, 2025 • 103 Comments

Oakland, Austin, New Orleans, Cape Coral, San Francisco, Birmingham, Washington DC, Fort Myers, Denver, Portland, Phoenix, Sarasota, Naples, Hayward.

Price Arbitrage (Buy Low, Sell High) Dominates the Use of Utility-Scale Battery Systems

by Wolf Richter • Sep 22, 2025 • 39 Comments

Utility-scale battery capacity tripled in two years. California and Texas are the giants.

Longer-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Jump after Rate Cut, Yield Curve Steepens, Bond Market Gets Edgy

by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2025 • 106 Comments

Bond market reacts to inflation expectations and supply of new bonds, not the Fed’s policy rates.

What It Takes to Sell Homes: Lennar Cuts Average Selling Price Below its 2019 Level, and its Home Sales Held Up

by Wolf Richter • Sep 19, 2025 • 103 Comments

But the hot air was let out of pandemic-era gross margins, operating earnings, and net income. Sellers of existing homes should pay attention.

Condo Prices Dropped by 12%-27% in these 25 Bigger Cities through August: Condo Bust Update

by Wolf Richter • Sep 19, 2025 • 66 Comments

Oakland, Cape Coral, Austin, San Francisco, Denver, Tampa, Seattle, New York City, St. Petersburg, Fort Myers, Sarasota, Boise, Jacksonville, Detroit, New Orleans, Portland, Arlington (TX), Naples, Mesa, Aurora (CO), Reno, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Orlando, Garland

The Foreign Investors Who Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Treasury Debt and Why They’re so Important

by Wolf Richter • Sep 18, 2025 • 48 Comments

With US debt issuance threatening to blow all fuses, foreign demand is an increasingly important question.

This Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Circus

by Wolf Richter • Sep 17, 2025 • 207 Comments

Amid only one dissent, FOMC Cuts by 25 basis points. “Dot Plot” sees 50 basis points in additional cuts in 2025. Risks shift to labor market. QT continues.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Aug 2025: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros. Overall US Home Prices Fell YoY

by Wolf Richter • Sep 16, 2025 • 77 Comments

And they fell in 21 of our 33 metros: Tampa, Austin, Miami, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Seattle… Others up YoY: Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia… A few hit new highs.