The Year of the Recession that Didn’t Come: Our Drunken Sailors Partied & Spent, GDP Jumped by Wolf Richter • Jan 25, 2024 • 100 Comments All major categories of spending and investment pulled in the same direction.
Fed’s Balance Sheet QT, Liabilities: RRPs -$1.78 trillion from Peak, to $590 Billion, but Reserves Rise to $3.6 Trillion as Liquidity Drains and Shifts by Wolf Richter • Jan 19, 2024 • 106 Comments RRPs heading to their normal level of zero. And it’s time to talk about the revived Standing Repo Facility.
Our Drunken Sailors Push Back Against Rate-Cut Mania by Wolf Richter • Jan 17, 2024 • 229 Comments Armed with income increases that outran inflation by a wide margin in 2023, they continue to splurge, no matter what.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Nationally -18% in December from Peak, Toronto -20%. Even in Calgary, House Prices Dropped. End of Easy Money by Wolf Richter • Jan 15, 2024 • 130 Comments Condo prices in Toronto carve out two-year low, house prices just a hair behind.
Office CRE Gets Even Messier: Aftermath of “The War for Space” by Wolf Richter • Jan 14, 2024 • 182 Comments How this mess came about is actually kind of funny, in a costly way.
Fed Reports Operating Loss of $114 billion for 2023, as Interest Expense Blows Out by Wolf Richter • Jan 12, 2024 • 125 Comments On top of whatever unrealized losses ($1.3 trillion in Q3) from its securities holdings. But losses don’t matter to the Fed.
Are Hopes of Lower Mortgage Rates Freezing Up the Market Further? Buyers’ Strike Continues by Wolf Richter • Jan 10, 2024 • 296 Comments Mortgage rates dropped a lot, but not nearly enough to hit the magic level that thaws out the housing market. Now they rose again.
The BTFP Will Expire in March: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr by Wolf Richter • Jan 9, 2024 • 80 Comments Last remaining bailout tool from the March bank panic goes away. Current arbitrage may have been a factor in shutting down this baby.
Which Industries Lost Jobs, Which Gained Jobs, including Government Jobs: Longer-Term Employment Trends in Charts by Wolf Richter • Jan 7, 2024 • 70 Comments Some are hot, some are cold. And a special look at employment in oil & gas drilling and in mining.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.28 Trillion from Peak, to $7.66 Trillion, Lowest since March 2021. Banks Got an Arbitrage Opportunity when Yields Dropped by Wolf Richter • Jan 4, 2024 • 81 Comments The Fed has shed 31% of the Treasury securities it had added during pandemic QE.
