Census Bureau Massively Revises Up Population Growth: +8 Million in 3 Years, +3.3 Million Last Year, Largely due to Immigration. US Population Surges to 340 Million by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024 • 126 Comments Total Employment to be substantially revised higher early 2025 when the BLS incorporates these up-revisions into its household survey employment data.
Home Sellers, Home Buyers, and Brokers Getting Used to the “New Normal” Old Normal 6-7% Mortgages? by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024 • 61 Comments Existing home sales rise from multi-decade rock-bottom, still -34% from 2021, -22% from 2019. Supply highest for November since 2018, days on market highest since 2019.
The Fed Needs to Watch Out to Not Throw More Fuel on this Demand: Retail Sales Accelerated Sharply in the 2nd Half by Wolf Richter • Dec 17, 2024 • 111 Comments It’s like someone turned on the spigot in July and forgot to turn it off.
Housing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment in Mortgage Lending by Wolf Richter • Dec 16, 2024 • 83 Comments Employment at nonbank mortgage lenders collapsed by 37% this time around, to the lowest level since 1997.
Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs, and Total Deposits: Americans’ Huge Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as Rates Drop by Wolf Richter • Dec 13, 2024 • 48 Comments Household cash in money market funds jumps to a record but CD balances begin to decline.
The ECB Steps Away from Bond Market Entirely, Speeds Up Bond QT even as it Cut Rates by Wolf Richter • Dec 13, 2024 • 23 Comments It already reduced its balance sheet by €2.48 trillion and completed its loan QT to near-zero.
Credit-Market Mania Crushed “Yield Spreads” & Risk Premiums, but Corporate & CRE Borrowing Costs Are Still Much Higher by Wolf Richter • Dec 9, 2024 • 45 Comments Loosey-goosey financial conditions don’t mean low borrowing costs. They just mean narrow yield spreads.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$98 Billion in November, -$2.07 Trillion from Peak, to $6.90 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020 by Wolf Richter • Dec 5, 2024 • 71 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 43% of the assets the Fed had added during pandemic QE. Bank-panic facility BTFP is vanishing.
Cut the Price and They Will Come: New-Vehicle Sales Jump amid Big Discounts and Incentives, as Inventory Balloons by Wolf Richter • Dec 4, 2024 • 91 Comments But prices are still way too high, and automakers are not cutting them nearly enough.
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever by Wolf Richter • Nov 30, 2024 • 83 Comments Office-to-residential conversions are growing, but are minuscule because not many towers are suitable for conversion.
