Treasury Market Gets Memo with Subject Line: “Higher for Longer” but Someone Scribbled next to it, “Maybe Forever?” by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2023 • 167 Comments “Neutral rate” creeping higher? Oh dearie! Bloodbath at the long end.
Demand for Existing Homes Falters Further. Price Cuts, Days on Market, New Listings Rise. Prices Languish below 2022 Peak by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2023 • 194 Comments New listings rose in August, when they normally fall in August, an interesting break in the seasonal pattern.
“Carefully,” Dude: Powell at the Press Conference by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 168 Comments Our drunken sailors “hate inflation, hate it,” and are in a foul mood, but are in good shape and keep spending.
In Very “Hawkish Hold,” Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Sees One More Hike in 2023, Only Two Rate Cuts in 2024, to 5.25%. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 205 Comments The shocker was the infamous “dot plot”: Higher for even longer, ending the year 2024 at 5.25%.
Sign of Tight Labor Market, Strength of Ecommerce: Amazon to Hire 250,000 for Holidays, up from 150,000 Last Year, Boost Wages, Offer Sign-on Bonuses by Wolf Richter • Sep 20, 2023 • 48 Comments While fewer and fewer Americans head to the malls.
Worst “Rent” Inflation since 1983 & Red-Hot Homeownership CPI Fuel Canada’s CPI Surge. Bank of Canada in a Pickle of its Own Making by Wolf Richter • Sep 19, 2023 • 140 Comments Inflation dished up another nasty surprise. Other costs jumped too. Gasoline didn’t help. This was a broad-based mess.
Congrats, America 🥂We Made it! Government Debt Spikes past $33 Trillion: +$1.6 Trillion since Debt Ceiling, +$2.2 Trillion from Year Ago by Wolf Richter • Sep 18, 2023 • 243 Comments Trillions whooshing by so fast they’re hard to see.
Fed’s Cumulative Operating Losses Exceed $100 Billion. Rate of Weekly Losses Begins to Slow as QT Drains RRPs and Reserves by Wolf Richter • Sep 18, 2023 • 41 Comments Not that the losses matter to the Fed, but they matter to the Budget Deficit.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Liabilities: RRPs Plunge, Reserves Rise after Bank Panic, Currency in Circulation Dips after Pandemic Spike, TGA Gets Refilled by Wolf Richter • Sep 16, 2023 • 116 Comments QT’s impact on the Fed’s liabilities, and massive movements between them.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Price Drops Spread amid Slowing Sales, Rising Supply, Bank of Canada Tightening by Wolf Richter • Sep 15, 2023 • 127 Comments The Home Price Benchmark Index is down 13% from peak in March 2022. The Canadian housing market is in a category of its own, in terms of craziness.
