Tesla’s share of the EV market plunged to 8.7% year-to-date, from 18.4% last year. Competition is now huge and across the spectrum. Tesla faces the same situation globally.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
It has been a very ugly year in Germany for auto sales, except for EVs. The overall new vehicle market in Germany has plunged by 30% in the first seven months of 2020 to 1.526 million units. But EV sales have skyrocket by 65% over the first seven months, after having already skyrocketed by 88% in the same period in 2019, according to KBA, the German agency that handles nationwide new-vehicle registrations. Year-to-date, 61,105 EVs were sold, giving EVs a share of 4% of total new vehicle sales, up from less than 1% just two years ago in 2018.
But Tesla got crushed. Its sales over the seven-month period fell from 6,816 in 2019 through July, to 5,306 over the same period in 2020, and its share in the EV market plunged from 18.4% to 8.7%.
There are now three automakers that blew past it in Germany – Volkswagen Group, Renault, and Hyundai Group – while Daimler Group came in even with Tesla, and BMW group wasn’t far behind. This chart shows market share of each automaker, with all their EV brands and models combined:
By Automaker: The table shows registrations by automaker, each with all their EV makes and models combined, in July and year-to-date through July, in order of their year-to-date share of the total EV market (right column).
| German EV registrations | |||
| By Automaker | July | 2020 YTD | YTD EV share |
| Volkswagen Grp | 6,023 | 23,400 | 38.3% |
| Renault | 2,851 | 9,917 | 16.2% |
| Hyundai Grp. | 3,214 | 7,353 | 12.0% |
| Tesla | 203 | 5,306 | 8.7% |
| Daimler Grp. | 2,105 | 5,305 | 8.7% |
| BMW Grp. | 1,499 | 4,898 | 8.0% |
| Groupe PSA | 301 | 2,026 | 3.3% |
| Nissan | 304 | 1,475 | 2.4% |
| All others | 182 | 886 | 1.4% |
| Jaguar | 73 | 386 | 0.6% |
| Honda | 43 | 144 | 0.2% |
| Total EVs | 16,798 | 61,105 | 100.0% |
By major brand: The table below splits out the major brands of each automaker that offer EVs. So, Volkswagen Group has five brands with EVs on this list: VW, Audi, Skoda, Porsche, and Seat. BMW Group has two brands on the list: BMW and Mini. Daimler Group also has two brands on it, Mercedes and Smart, as has Hyundai Group, Hyundai and Kia. In this lineup, Tesla is in third place, behind the brands VW and Renault. There are still a bunch of major brands that do not offer EVs in Germany, including Toyota, and those are not on the list:
| German EV registrations | |||
| By Major Brand | July | 2020 YTD | YTD EV share |
| VW | 4,102 | 15,279 | 25.0% |
| Renault | 2,851 | 9,917 | 16.2% |
| Tesla | 203 | 5,306 | 8.7% |
| Hyundai | 2,114 | 4,802 | 7.9% |
| Smart | 1,805 | 4,464 | 7.3% |
| Audi | 697 | 3,998 | 6.5% |
| BMW | 812 | 3,338 | 5.5% |
| Kia | 1,100 | 2,551 | 4.2% |
| Skoda | 650 | 2,007 | 3.3% |
| Mini | 687 | 1,560 | 2.6% |
| Nissan | 304 | 1,475 | 2.4% |
| Opel | 134 | 1,451 | 2.4% |
| Porsche | 346 | 1,426 | 2.3% |
| Others | 210 | 1078 | 1.8% |
| Mercedes | 300 | 841 | 1.4% |
| Seat | 228 | 690 | 1.1% |
| Jaguar | 73 | 386 | 0.6% |
| Peugeot | 139 | 383 | 0.6% |
| Honda | 43 | 144 | 0.2% |
| Total registrations | 16,798 | 61,105 | 100.0% |
Tesla is now in the process of building an assembly plant in Germany. But by the time it is up and running, more of the other major automakers that currently don’t offer EVs in Germany will offer them. And the giants with their numerous brands are gearing up to offer a whole spectrum of vehicles, across all categories and price classes.
To Tesla’s credit, it shook up the German automotive industry that for years had pooh-poohed EVs in favor of internal combustion engines, particularly diesels. Volkswagen Group was so focused on diesels that it couldn’t even see EVs.
But the fallout from the diesel-emissions-fraud scandal, which continues to fester in the German court system, has changed that. Consumers are turning away from diesels. And for automakers, EVs are the only major segment that is red hot, even during the pandemic. It’s where growth is. What Tesla accomplished was that it woke up the giants. And now they’re going after this market with all their might.
Tesla is facing the same situation globally: The giants have woken up and many of them are now offering or will soon be offering models across the spectrum, and Tesla has to get down in the trenches with them and compete on price, service, quality, reliability, and all the other mundane factors that regular consumers – not true believers – demand. And it’s going to get very tough.
For automakers in the US, this was a tough market before the Pandemic: decades of stagnation in unit sales, carved up by more competitors, with industry revenue growth by jacking up prices. Then came the Pandemic. Read... Average Age of Cars & Trucks on the Road in the US Sets Record, Will Jump During Pandemic as New-Vehicle Sales Plunge to 1970s Level
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So despite all this, Tesla stock up 5% tomorrow opening? The eternally optimistic Tesla bull will see 9% as a positive in that pie chart. Look, they are at least visible in the chart compare to Jaguar…I think I am getting the hang of Tesla bull logic here.
The most compelling argument for Tesla going up is passive money plowing in once they’re added to the S&P 500 index.
I have a coworker who’s bullish too, and he says you can’t think of them as just a car company with their battery and self-driving technologies. Some think that they’ll create a whole new market for self-driving taxis or something.
I’m still short – with a $900 strike January put – and I’m down considerably after their earnings managed to stay positive in Q2. There’s a lot of hot money in TSLA though, and they have been struggling to stay north of $1500 lately. With the increasing US-China tensions (their top market), the growing competition in the EV space, and the crazy valuations I’ve been holding my position but I’m still nervous about it.
The bull case for Tesla is pure fantasy. I have never seen a more obvious bubble stock.
Be careful with your puts. I went broke shorting TSLA. Now I am going to have a problem finding a job in this market..
Some Tesla bulls claims Tesla is a platform company: the car (and perhaps houses) is the device to access the various subscription services Tesla will sell. (Starlink, satellite-based internet, is probably part of the puzzle.) It’s similar to Apple pivoting to be a more service-oriented company.
But if you ask me, Tesla’s users-base is not growing fast enough. Also, the car is not a very flexible/accessible device for accessing a service platform, compared computers and mobile devices.
Tesla stock is not based in reality, news at 11!
Well I would hardly say they are crushed. If you break down the VW group brands it’s beating most of them and not forgetting Tesla are a premium brand with some cool tech and much better looking than anything VAG can produce. Given the choice and money not being a factor. Most people would chose a Tesla over a drab VAG offering!
Mr Mike Barrett,
People are now given a choice — and that’s the problem — and they’re now buying more Renaults than Teslas in Germany
From the graph that Wolf did, we see that people in Europe do not think like her, if they choose VAG or Renault and for cars that they believe are better than Tesla in many points and here we are talking about all the customers, not a small one elite as Tesla buyers.
“Money not being a factor” You just wasted 15 seconds and 16 words of my time.
I am thinking that Tesla is going to use the 8+ cameras per car to reinvent the company into a massive data company.
Not the data on their drivers (which is relatively small) but on mapping streets and surroundings on almost a real time basis – all across the world.
Google maps is updated, maybe, every 18 months. Teslas are on evert street, multiple times a minute in many cases.
Tesla is uniquely set up for this business at this point in time.
It is the only logical reason I can figure out for the stock price vs sales, massive debt and no hope of ever making a sustainable profit.
Minus -2.8% at the moment, subject to change :-]
Why everyone seems to think Tesla will be the only one making electric cars and the majors won’t be good or better at it than them is just beyond me. I mean unless they invent some completely different market and dominate it like AAPL none of this makes sense. They could be really successful but the price is just ridiculous and they have gotten so far ahead of themselves financially … I bet long term the stock crashes and they get bought out to escape their financial troubles and then in one way or another Musk or Tesla do make great products…just won’t look like people think where Tesla owns 80% of the car market and all it’s ancillary businesses.
Tesla and Apple are not stocks they are religions ! The faithful never give up their faith until its too late –
I’ve never owned Apples stock, just one more reason I’m reading blogs, not writing them!
But I would still say that Apple mints money. They are the market leader, they drown in cash, and the barrier to taking their customers is quite high.
I used to have to do IT work for my wife until she switched to Apple. I still use PC’s because of long familiarity, but am very happy with her purchases. My new company gave me a choice of a Macbook Pro or a Dell Precision. I took the Dell but I was tempted!
I mean to say that Apple and Tesla don’t belong in the same bucket from an investing perspective.
Tesla is full of risk and in a capital intensive market. Apple has outsourced everything capital intensive.
The church of Parasitism.
Apple is a bank.
Gas here is $1.70 per gallon. Subtract fed and state taxes it’s $1.16. If you dive 12000 miles per year at 25 mpg it’s $550 for the gas minus taxes. One of the better values in USA.
That price for gas now. Don’t hold your breath, Wait a bit, see what happens. I remember too well in 2008 when it went to$4.25-5.00/gallon. Electricity will rise in cost, unless you make your own. But ICE vs electric cars is mature vs budding technology. Use what is most affordable is what I do daily. YMMV
TSLA just announced a 5-for-1 Share Split via Dividend to make Share PX easier for RobinHood Users.
Last time I checked – that resulted in a 16B USD Market Cap Boost.
Surley Lord Hades’ Spectress have their hands in this Frenzied Mob…
I am surprised you did not mention July itself Wolf. It is bad enough for ytd but they seem to have fallen off a cliff in July. They must have been holding their own to that point. Was there any specific reason for this, stock levels? Only one month does not a statistic make but it seems some tipping point was perhaps reached.
Oops, please disregard comment, this was meant to be posted on the main thread, not as a response.
It’s simple: Transatlantic car-carrier ships do not sail in every month, rather every few months or every quarter. If the storage is running low they can’t sell as much.
Car ships never stop moving for more than 2-3 days (at port) other than for maintenance. They cost approximately $60,000/day to own, whether they are loaded or not, and at that price they had better be loaded.
It takes approximately two days to load or empty one of those large carriers, and it’s an operation that makes clown cars look tame. (Trust me when I say your new car has been driver in excess of 60 mph before you ever get in it.)
The average crossing time is <10 days on the Atlantic side, <14 on the Pacific. Storage at the ports is temporary, with cars sitting an less than 4 days if everything's working correctly. Cars are cleared from the port using rail (the majority) or line haul. Most ports on the west coast that handle new car shipments have in excess of 100 acres for storage. I cannot remember ever seeing a lot stay full for more than a week in the past 8 years.
Great info. Wonder how these numbers are changing with global; auto slowdown.
You’re a bit optimistic with the total travel time, that’s more along the 4-weeks time frame.
But the important point is that Tesla is scheduling their production so that they never end up with a full ship when the quarter rolls over. That would absolutely crush their quarterly numbers. So in the first half of the quarter the Fremont factory produces cars for overseas sales, in the second half they produce for domestic sales.
Do you know what happened at the Fremont factory in the first half of Q2? Hint: It was closed for COVID-19. So there was no production for Europe in Q2. And July is well in the first half of Q3, so in July cars for Europe were produced and ships of them will arrive some time in August.
Everything Tesla sold in Europe from April to July was “old inventory” left over from Q1.
Yes, July was awful for Tesla. I showed the July data, but this is an industry market-share story, and one bad month would be too narrow to use as a measuring stick.
I got in a 700 and out between 1400 and 1740 (especially on the Bitcoin style parabolic final move which I watched in real time) and now left with 2 shares which I will likely sell soon as Tesla seems to run with the NQ and I am not sure the NQ can go much above 11400 in the near future so…! No one knows the future and many are predicting another leg up (to above $2000?) but it is not surprising to see competition ramping up. An interesting analysis – thanks.
Buy
The
Bad
News
More sensible prices from the mainsteam are starting to come online (I have a lease e-2008 on order), but even if I was the biggest tesla fanboy, I wouldn’t be buying a tesla right now. Why, because I would be waiting for the model Y, a car much more suited to Europe than the S.
China will make $10,000 electric cars as good as a Model Y very soon.
No one mentioned the electric mandates passed by numerous European states. EVs only will be permitted in many major cities and whole countries are requiring all new vehicles to be EVs, like Norway now. China, India, Germany, France Benelux close behind. About time!
No. Electric vehicles are still a solution in search of a problem. I acknowledge the bandwagon effect though.
Do Germans feel patriotic about their car brands? It could be an uphill battle in general. Although Hyundai is doing quite well if it is.
They do, but not as much as Americans. It’s more like a pragmatic patriotism: German products are only preferred till the budget and personal preferences allow.
Arguably German automakers are more closely intertwined with German politics than U.S. automakers are with U.S. politics, as extraordinary as that might sound to someone who has only paid attention to U.S. politics.
The auto industry drives German leadership in robotics and machine tools, which are key industries enabling leadership in all kinds of high profit manufacturing beyond automobiles. When the German auto industry needs something, they get it. That’s, I believe, less guaranteed Stateside.
I think the U.S. isn’t even on the top 10 list of machine tool manufacturers anymore. It’s a list dominated by Germany and Japan, with maybe one or two new China companies, too.
In SW Florida, we have tons of Germans (both immigrants/naturalized citizens) and snowbirds. They all love American muscle cars.
Tesla is the AltaVista of the electric cars. It will be a nice quiz question for future board games ‘Which car company was the most valuable in 2020?’
Or InfoSpace. Remember that one?
Germany is the first national jurisdiction to instruct Tesla to stop calling its cars ‘self driving’ or whatever terms Tesla is using to convey that ability.
PS; to be precise:
‘A German court ruled that Tesla cannot use phrases including “full potential for autonomous driving” and “Autopilot inclusive” in its ads or on its website to describe its driver assist system.
The court ruled that such phrases could mislead consumers into believing that the cars can drive without any human input.
Tesla can appeal the ruling.’
Toyota seems to be staying solid with its hydrogen fuel cell technology. I wonder how that’s going to work out for them in Europe?
Open world H2 experiments are part of the European Green Deal – as politicians like to dub it – and refineries want it to happen as well, but with the current prices those case studies are more likely to be truck-only (and are predicted to fail against the already existing LNG network).
Trucks have more standard routes that they drive so third rail solutions are a danger to H2. As is the slow advancement in batteries.
As I’ve said many times on this comment board before, the Tesla fanboys’ biggest mistake is the preposterous assumption that all the other automakers are use going to sit on their hands and let Tesla be the only player in town when it comes to EVs. As these numbers are starting to show, this will not happen. Tesla’s first mover advantage is starting to erode.
Also, what you are seeing from other automakers at this point are just the first iterations of products based on designed from the ground up BEV platforms. While these are eons better than their older offerings which were based on modified ICE platforms, they are still rough around the edges. It will take them another few years to perfect their products, at which point they will be into the mode Tesla is in now whereby they are just making small incremental changes to their products as time goes by. That’s okay though as since battery costs we are still 4-5 years away from making EVs truly competitive with ICE vehicles, the other automakers have the time to go though this cycle. Until that price parity arrives, EVs will continue being just a tiny (yet super-hyped) slice of the overall vehicle market.
The flaw in your premise is the assumption that ICE automakers can simply pivot and start making EVs with batteries they don’t make and electric motors they don’t make for charging systems they don’t deploy with software updates they don’t write.
This same logic would have assumed that horse buggy makers could have simply pivoted to making gas cars, since they also made carriages with 4 wheels.
Are European automakers capable of making EVS? Yes.
Are they capable of scaling fast enough to avoid their obsolescence? That remains to be seen.
It’s hard to scale when you don’t make the key parts for EVs, and the companies that do make them are already scrambling to keep up with Tesla.
VW’s ID.3 and ID.4 platforms (and VW’s preparation and tooling for them) are an obvious sign that some of the legacy major automakers are dead serious in taking on Tesla.
GM build ICE and EVs on the same line at it’s Orion assembly plant. Two years ago, they doubled the production capacity of the Bolt during the July 4th holiday weekend. Finally, get a clue. Every ICE auto company has tremendous experience assembling and installing batteries and electric motors in their vehicles, plus an alternator to recharge the battery. You got to stop believing Musk’s b/s about his manufacturing expertise.
Interesting facts about Germany EV market, thanks.
Yet it’s unclear what to infer from it in more general way.
I am not trying to provoke you, but there are too many factors that make compairisons hard.
Covid’s 2020 year is not pre-covid 2019.
Germany is not representative for Europe nor world.
Tesla’prices aren’t exactly positioned for EV mass market.
As for Tesla waking up giants… isn’t it exagerated? I always thought that the giants woke up thanks to EV financial incentives and total ICE car market saturation.
Tesla is priced for perfection. If they don’t eat the world and sell more cars than all companies combined in the whole world then the bull case will implode. This is yet another data point that every car on earth in 2025 probably won’t be a Tesla…
“Tesla is priced for perfection.”
Tesla is priced for the Second Coming, when Jesus won’t walk on water, He will drive a Tesla over it in a commercial endorsement.
And…at that point, the PE ratio will…still be 10 times too high.
Well, there is much truth and irony in your statement.
When cars were first being mass produced, it was pretty much an even race, by sales, between ICE and battery poweted cars.
EVs have popped up through history, by all the majors, since then.
They never sold well and were poor substitutes. The majors saw no profits in them and shut them down.
Then came along Musks, who made EVs cool for the first time, and truly massive government subsidies, credits and grants.
2banana,
The enabling tech for EVs is the battery. The rest is a cakewalk for automakers. And battery tech has gotten much better over the decades, and prices have come down. Whether or not battery tech is ready for prime-time in low-end cars can still be debated. But it’s ready for prime-time at the high end.
But only if $80 000 cars get massive subsidies and tax credits.
Massive taxpayerssubsidies for the rich to buy a toy is not “ready for prime time…”
“But it’s ready for prime-time at the high end.”
In the US, most of the subsidies have run out for Tesla and GM.
Engin-ear,
The giants woke up because Tesla started to eat their lunch. Tesla ate directly into Audi, BMW, and Mercedes sales. This was big-time the case in the US. The luxury sports sedan segment was thrown into turmoil by Tesla. That’s a small segment, and Tesla got a huge slice out of it, fairly suddenly, at the expense of the others that made their living in that segment.
You’ve got to remember: the new vehicle market in the EU, the US, and other markets has been in stagnation or decline for over two decades. So the way to grow is to take market share from others, and the way to shrink is to allow this to happen. And every new Tesla sells represents a vehicle that some other automaker didn’t sell.
Your explanation seems incomplete to me.
Yes, Tesla succeded in mass marketing of *fashion* EV.
They did it at a mind blowing cost: they burned about 1 trillion in cash since 2003 by 2019 (source : reuters.com).
No traditional car maker ever wanted to pay such a price for such a status.
Two favorable winds helped EV this century:
1. Central banks policies eased find raising for venture capitalists.
2. Gouvernments unleashed unprecedented ICE car bashing (both financial and extra-financial, “hey, who wanna 10K?” and “You shall not pass with your ICE car in my downtown”).
I am deeply sorry about Tesla cash flow, I misread this graph:
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/7732/7663/TESLA.png
That is certainly because my small head is in true difficulty in distinguishing Billions and Trillions. Lack of practice.
Shame for me.
Trillion? That is 10^12. They did not loose that much money.
Developing cars is an expensive business. Toyota lost a billion before Prius started making money
Elon anticipated this situation ages ago and has a neat solution:
Open the first Tesla dealership on Mars.
He’ll have 100% market share there.
Mr. Richter:
I took a quick glance at the Source; but I’ll need a few Translation Websites to dig a bit deeper.
Since you managed to Pull Out the July Numbers for EVs,
May we trouble You to have the YTD Registration Numbers Expanded on a Month-by-Month Basis?
I’m a bit curious to see the threshold were TSLA started to fall behind Other EV Makers.
Doumo!
ROTFL!
Kind Regards,
IronForge
Where the real battle is going to be is in the air, pray that Space X does NOT rule all access to all satellite relay of all ground communications and transport communications systems.
The Germans have the building blocks to crush Tesla in EV’s. For the last 30 years they have led the world in motor technology, motor drive systems, servo controls and electronic transducers. Tesla has these key parts manufactured in China or Taiwan from older designs. Tesla may hold up its value for a while based on schemes, subsidies and foolishness, but the Germans will grind them to dust at street level.
Teslas built in a tent, the company controlled by an anti-union con artist. ’nuff said. VW will eat them up when they slot new products into their established structure of manufacturing and sales.
I’d be careful with predictions about VW, past performance does not guarantees future results. Their strong-man, Ferdiand Piech quit before the dieselgate and passed away shortly after. Now the company is stuck with managerial wars and product development fiascos. Their capital lacks good leadership, there are more promising contenders bidding for EU EV market share.
VW is a company which seems to perform well under pressure, i.e. making the correct strategic assessmentswhen faced with extinction. When the Volkswagen Beetle with its underperforming rear engine technology was rapidly becoming obsolete, the company turned its fate around with the Volkswagen Golf. One model saved the company at that time. Now they’re about to market the e-Golf in earnest in Europe and while it’s true that the car still needs some finetuning, that is the type of car with the potential to win over a large crowd of EV-users here in Europe. I’d consider buying one if the range is further extended. To be fair, the number of Tesla’s on European roads is remarkably high, given the fact that they’r prohibitingly expensive IMO. For Tesla, the danger will come from the lower priced mid range EV-vehicles from various other (European) manufacturers.
I suggest you look on YouTube at “Audi Electric Motor Engine Factory – HOW IT’S MADE”.
The electric motors are made in Hungry (much cheaper than Germany ).
VW / Audi Group make their own motors, I understand that Tesla buy them in.
I would put my money on VW rather than Tesla.
I wonder how the Japanese are getting on. I could imagine Toyota and Honda doing even a better job in the longer term.
Same mistake again: basing business forecast on historical achievements. Post-war and ’70s Germany had far different values, ethics and goals. The current company culture is rotten from top down and worker welfare is put in front of being competitive. In my view VW is slowly transforming into a Ford.
Paulo,
Sprung structures are hardly a tent; among others, there are ones within the arctic circle capable of withstanding live loads of hundreds of pounds per square foot.
And it’s a very old and respectable Canadian home based company as well.
Very competent people at their SF office too!
The one thing that the Germans don’t have is massive investor support, their valuations are based somewhat in reality. Whereas Tesla’s isn’t.
But the Germans also has an advantage that Tesla does not. While the US could happily let Tesla die and not feel a thing. The Germans can’t do the same, the demise of Daimler, or BMW, or even worse, VW, would mean massive number of German politicians get thrown out of office.
Before that can happen, the German government would pump billions of Euros into those companies, and to hell with the WTO or whoever else is complaining about state subsidies. The auto industry in German must survive, even if they all have to start lip syncing to that famous tune by Gloria Gaynor. (Ich werde überleben)
Those politicians are the “massive investor support” in Germany.
It seems to me that we have to keep in mind that a Tesla will always be the only choice for some folks because of perceived status. The old adage ‘you are what you wear’ can also be transferred to ‘you are what you drive.’
It’s sort of like a “Free Tibet” bumper sticker. It appears that these bumper stickers will only adhere to the rear bumpers of a Volvo or a Subaru. They don’t seem to stick to Chevy pickups or Jeep Wranglers.
Identify politics is well aligned with automobile brands.
Hilarious. I worked with a guy who’s first chore after buying a new vehicle was sticking on the Free Tibet sticker. Like that is going to really do something in Canada. He morphed from the Subarus to those right hand drive 4 wheel drive used Japanese vans. Every once in awhile we would stick pro gun ownership or trapping industry stickers next to Free Tibet, and bet on how long they would stay on. Sometimes, they would last a month. He finally started to park in a different lot, and we would do it there. Ahh, small things amuse small minds.
Always? What else in autos, or anything is always?
Until it isn’t? Just look how fast the Prius went out of style.
The Prius may have gone out of style, but Toyota still dominates hybrids. They took the status that they earned from Prius to make hybrid versions of their mainstream models
Whatever trivial thing you find “out of style” about the Prius, it hasn’t stopped them from being the top-selling hybrid in the world (>10 million units) and dominating Consumer Reports ratings for 2 decades. So you’re not a fan. Got it.
Used to think the same thing about phones. Blackberry? If cars are computers on wheels then interface matters? If your nearly self driving Tesla autologs you onto the autobahn seamlessly, and the others drop coverage and you end up in a Walmart parking lot? Consumers pay a premium for iphone service, and most don’t know half of it. A tech partnership of some kind will solve the dilemma. Drive me home Alexa.
I wouldn’t worry about that yet. Widespread L5 is not coming this decade, and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you pixie dust. However, I do think AI is going to make cars much safer very soon.
Car-to-car communication is interesting. I haven’t kept up with common standards industry bodies are cooking up, but thats like the one part of short wavelength 5G that could live up to the hype.
Tesla usually builds for Europe in the first month of a quarter and ships in the second month. Low numbers for July just means that all inventory in Europe from 2nd quarter shipments had already been sold and delivered. I would expect a large number of deliveries in August and September.
Yes, I would expect a much larger number of EV deliveries by the other automakers going forward. They’re crushing it. There will be additional models in the lineup in the fall. So this will be fun to watch.
A lot of that in the end would depend on critical components though. Namely, batteries.
So, the real question is does the world have sufficient battery capabilities to support the volume. Sounds like a reason to go buy ALB stock. Cause… Li is the king, Li is the king, So, go buy ALB, go buy ALB. (Yeah, I just watched Peanuts again recently)
So far, so good.
Oh, just in case someone is confused. Li is not a name of a person. It’s the chemical symbol for Lithium.
Let’s try this again.
Are any auto companies making money selling EVs?
Even if you factor in the subsidies?
It’s a relevant question – no?
It’s for investors to decide whether or not they like the earnings of their companies. Don’t buy the stocks if you don’t like them.
But don’t worry, other than the battery, EVs are a LOT cheaper to produce than ICE vehicles — and the costs of the battery have been coming down by a lot over the years, and that process continues. So just relax in your ICE vehicle, let the industry do its thing, and watch the progress being made.
Wrong question:
With this kind of product you don’t make money on the first generation but if you don’t make the first generation you will never make money on the second generation
Until Subaru comes out with an EV, I’ll be sticking with an ICE, specifically a Boxer.
The only boxer I’m willing to drive is my 2002 Goldwing 1800 GL. Awesome beast and virtually indestructible when properly serviced. 160.000 km on the clock and counting.
The Tesla is expensive and a low quality car with lots of annoying defects and an insufficient service organization (in Germany). The car is bought by people that do not consider the enormous ecological footprint of the heavy battery. I would rather had a hand cut off than buying one of those.
If the other automakers are crushing it, then in theory they won’t need to buy as much of Tesla’s emission EU credits (the main source of Tesla’s earnings that gives the impression Tesla is profitable)
Thanks for reminding us THAT part of business.
“According to its earnings report, Tesla’s total revenue hit $6.04 billion for the quarter, with about 7% of that, or $428 million, coming from sales of these credits. To put that in perspective, regulatory credit sales were greater than the company’s free cash flow and amounted to four times Tesla’s $104 million of net profit for the quarter.”
– CNBC, Jul 23, 2020
Translation: the stock is set to soar in “value”, will be triple the current price by this time next year……..TSLA $10K by 2022……
I’ve long thought Tesla is emblematic of the disconnect between the market and the economy as a whole. My reasoning is this. Right now, the pandemic downturn has really only affected the jobs of the lower-wage people. The professional class, and especially the upper middle class professional class, still has their jobs, and are just doing them remotely. They don’t see the real problems in the Main St. economy, and they’re not worried about their jobs (but IMO, they should be!), so they’re happy to dump $ into stocks with obscene valuations.
Tesla is the same. They’re popular among upper-middle class professionals in mainly left-leaning urban areas. They see a lot of their neighbors with them, and thus think “everyone” is buying them, and that it’s not unrealistic that Tesla can take over the automotive market (as the current stock price portends). But drive 100 miles outside of an urban area, and you’ll barely see any Teslas. The things that are important to the upper-middle class liberals are not the same things that are important to middle America. Middle America doesn’t see Tesla as a status symbol, and won’t buy ANY EV unless they’re competitive price wise, reliable, and can get very, very good range. And when they do, they’d rather buy a Ford or Honda or whatever they’re comfortable with than a Tesla. Unless the other car manufacturers try and fail at producing quality EVs, I don’t see how Tesla can keep its advantage.
Tesla and Musk got hi-jacked by this ‘crowd’ you talk about, the importance of EV got swallowed by this pipe dream of an autonomous car.
Simple short-range EV 1.0s are the future, – cheap – the simple motor/battery deal which is perfect for post-modern urban driving, short jaunts at 25mph which is where it is the most efficient and cost-effective. We just need more recharging stations around town.
Own one of those FIAT 500e’s and now that I have gotten over the range anxiety, I wallow in the $500 month advantage I get over ICE’s – no gas, oil, transmission, coolant etc, etc.
Yep. I agree with you. The problem is the range and lack of charging stations. I bet the Fiat 500e isn’t your only car, right? Right now, it only works as an extra car, something that middle and lower class Americans can’t afford. But I agree that EV is great for driving around the suburbs for random errands and such.
We simply need a prohibition to quit 100 miles area around home town until covid vaccin is developed and marketed.
No more range anxiety with EV!
It cost you $500 per month to drive short distances around town? Your mechanic and gasoline station were really cheating you. To add insult to injury you then got suckered into buying an EV. Ouch!
Exactly the way it seems to me.
“Middle America doesn’t see Tesla as a status symbol, and won’t buy ANY EV unless they’re competitive price wise, reliable, and can get very, very good range.”
Ha! If you stop in the wrong spot in rural south/southwest with a Tesla, the kind of areas dominated by pickups that blot out the sun, it WILL get keyed. You mind as well drive around with “I love Hillary Clinton!” painted on the side of your car, like the Top Gear crew did.
I ask you something:
How renewable, sustainable and clean is the electrical energy that feeds and will feed EVs for many years?
Even with all the electrical losses, fossil fuel power plants are significantly cleaner than ICE, as long as we don’t do anything stupid like bring back conventional coal. They can do even better with more emissions capture tech and regulation.
The big environmental (and sustainability) issue with EVs is producing the darn things. This is also a problem with photoelectric solar and wind power, and you won’t see eco investors ask too many questions about where all those expensive materials come from.
Most trenchant comment here.
Nabi Rasch,
No, the second paragraph of EJ’s comment was one of the sillier things said here. See my explanation below.
EJ,
Concerning your second paragraph: So you think that producing ICE cars doesn’t have an environmental impact? That some deity just gives them to us? Or that building a fossil fuel power plant doesn’t have an environmental impact? That someone just miraculously causes it to be there? Use your brains. All these things have to be built.
But one thing we know: with wind power, the fuel is FREE!!
Oh they are very costly to produce, and far more complicated than EVs. But they don’t need vast quantities of lithium, and that lithium doesn’t need to be replaced midway through its life.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact
And I think I sent the wrong message: EVs are certainly a huge improvement over ICE, but they don’t go far enough, at least not without a major storage breakthrough.
I don’t think any new fossil fuel plants can be built, and I think every nuclear/wind/photoelectric/thermal solar/geothermal/hydro/etc plant that can be built instead should be built. But there are worse ideas than forcing old fossil fuel plants to use scrubbers and sequestration. Try to shut them down, and you run the risk of failing, or giving political opposition ammunition to play with.
Carlos Leiro,
“I ask you something:”
OK, I’ll tell you something: Same clean as the “electrical energy” that feeds your smartphone or your stove or your A/C or the lights in your house. Got it???
What is it with this brain-dead hypocrisy where EV buyers are held to this immensely high environmental standard when it’s OK for other vehicle buyers or A/C users or smartphone users to not give a friggin crap about the environment? I get so tired of this braindead hypocrisy.
People buy cars and trucks because that’s what they WANT to buy. DRIVE an EV, and you will see why people buy them: performance, 100% of the torque available at zero RPM, perfect for towing and performance driving, quiet.
And there are other reasons why people buy them: Never having to get gas but just be able to plug it in at night while you sleep, the near-absence of maintenance, etc. etc. Environmental issues are not normally part of the decision-making process.
My former neighbour drives one of the ugliest cars on the planet — some sort of BMW EV.
I saw him at a funeral recently and he was again urging me to trade in my ICE BMW for an EV (which in most places would be charged using coal)
I asked him if the car could make it from Nelson to Queenstown on a charge (800km)
Oh no, of course not, he has to stop at least once along the way and overnight. He rationalized that by saying ‘what’s the rush – this gives you time to enjoy the journey and take your time’
So I would have to turn a one day journey into two days – pay for a hotel in a place I have zero interest in staying.
And if the drive is during the winter, we all know that the battery does not hold as much of a charge…. do I turn off the heater to conserve the battery?
I have never seen a single EV charger on that route — so rather than enjoying the leisurely ride (with the stop), am I not fretting about if I am going to be stranded in the middle of nowhere with an empty battery?
I suppose the solution is to just buy another car — powered by petrol — and use that for long hauls. But do I want to buy two cars when I only need one? And isn’t buying two cars bad for the environment?
I am thinking I will stick with one car … the one powered by petrol… the one what allows me to drive nearly 800km without stopping.
Or 1600km with a 2 minute refuelling stop.
Not sure why people buy EVs to be quite honest – particularly when they are (even with subsidies) far more expensive than an ICE car.
I suppose some feel they are helping the environment, ignoring the fact that they are powered by coal.
I highly recommend watching Michael Moore’s Planet of the Humans. He exposes the whole charade.
Looks like you’ll be one of the people for whom an ICE vehicle is the preferred choice. No problem, lots of ICE vehicles to choose from. That’s why there are hundreds of models out there, something for everyone.
Last time I drove 1,600 KM in one sitting was 20 years ago. Why would I ever want to do that again, I mean drive 1,600 KM?
But your environment comment is hypocritical brain-dead bullshit. Why should an EV buyer be suddenly concerned about the environment, when you in your BMW don’t have to give a crap about it???
EVs are powered by coal only in places where I don’t want to live, such as China. In the US, power generation from coal is now less than 30%. California no longer has any coal power plants. In the US, coal is on the way out because it cannot compete with natural gas, the combined-cycle natural gas power plant (since the 1990s), and more recently with wind power (fuel is free). Here is the data of coal use in US power production:
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/28/why-theres-no-hope-for-coal-consumption-plunged-to-multi-decade-lows/
If you had a Tesla and there was a charging station, you could make that drive with a single 30 minute stop, just a little longer than you would stop for gas.
Now maybe Tesla doesn’t have a charging station there (yet) so feel free to keep driving your ICE. Maybe your specific driving patterns dont yet match any EV on the market.
But if you want to bring up the environmental costs of producing electricity, I get to bring up the trillions we spend securing the middle east for its oil. So how many dead soldiers do we need to sacrifice for your petrol?
Winky Willy – most people’s weekday work commute and weekend chore running does not come close to 800Km. Maybe people drive that distance a few times a year, for a holiday visit or something, or short vacation trip. EVs are not “powered by coal,” generally speaking. Wolf’s comment explains why, and if you look back you can find other articles on this same website about what has been happening to the coal industry.
I would hope that it isn’t brain dead hypocrisy to question the hype around renewable energy. Those sources definitely have their place, I think the key point for people like me who does question the rah rah enthusiasm of the masses is that a lot of them simply equate solar and wind to magic bullets that is like a cure all without realizing the consequences around these. No intelligence, just accept whatever the narrative is.
Certainly the media hypes it up that way, how often do you hear about the downsides associated with production of clean energy supply chain.
Yes, the same problem exists on the regular supply chain too, so it’s only fair that those get brought up. But the problem is a careful examination of any of these takes huge amount of time and requires more than just a little understanding of the science or engineering behind the technology and the processes.
Where are these people from? The Edison Institute or something? Do tell, what are the dire “consequences” from solar and wind power? Go ahead and explain, science and engineering don’t frighten me I’m all ears. My experience with solar is first-hand, not “media hype.” Look at the cost graphs for solar and wind over the past 10 years. It’s amazing how fast cost has come down. If you ever get around to installing solar, even a small installation to find out what it’s about for yourself, come back and let’s talk about maintenance, or rather the almost total lack thereof because solar panels don’t require a hell of a lot once installed.
Have you ever lived anywhere close to an oil refinery? The smell of what goes into the air is nasty and who knows what happens to the ground underneath.
Beating dead horses at a race track slowly closing down. There’s a Ford in your future, or maybe just Hupmobiles?
Tesla bag holders better hope Musk doesn’t die. Musk’s personality is driving it all. Lose him and it it dumps. TSLA is no APPL. On the other hand, Musk 2024!
/s
Does this list include PHEVs or only full EVs?
At the moment, PHEVs and hybrids are the real sweet spot. In Canada, a Rav4 Prime will be just over $50k before a $2,500 tax credit. The Model Y is $70k+, no tax credit available in most of Canada. The Rav4 Prime will win in build quality and hardware while the Model Y wins in software. Hell, the Rav4 Prime will have nearly as fast acceleration as the Model Y LR. No way a $20k+ price difference makes sense when the annual fuel savings will only be about $1k a year.
Another example is how the Hyundai Ioniq hybrid or the Soul ICE makes way more sense than the EV version even after $5k of taxpayer money.
EVs also have no price advantage in highway driving. A PHEV/hybrid/ICE that can get 40mpg in highway driving will spend $5 to drive 100 miles with $2/gallon gas. A Model 3 that can get 4.3mi/kWh and supercharges at $0.25/kWh will cost $5.80 to do 100mi!
“Does this list include PHEVs or only full EVs?”
Battery EVs
Hybrids and plug-in hybrids are listed in Germany’s data separately. As are diesels. It’s really interesting to get registration data to this level of detail. I wish we had this type of data in the US. All we get on a timely basis are estimates.
That’s another interesting tidbit. If we combine EV + PHEV + hybrid, the conventional ICE market is obliterated. In Deutschland, at least. And these are the good times, as they say, when petrol is dirt cheap!
The competition from the heritage car makers is exactly what people have been expecting. People might not remember Krispy Kreme’s story. It was kind of like this about 20 years ago. It eventually got ugly but not until a parabolic rise (for no discernible fundamental reason.)
I don’t know about the various Tesla subsidies, but I think they eventually are supposed to run out.
As far as the environmental issue(s), these “renewables”, are really not known enough, that’s why there’s the discussion/argument. Disposing of the batteries is going to be a bad environmental event. Like plastics, maybe it’s almost totally recyclable, at a price. To be recycled, it’ll have to have the right economics.
Manufacturing an EV vs an ICE has different environmental footprint too, but maybe not so different. Maybe “better”?
Please be honest. I am a German speaker and have the official numbers here.
You have the numbers of phev plus Bev.
Toni,
BS. Don’t give me this Tesla-troll beginner crap. Plug-in hybrids are included in the hybrids, NOT in the EVs — note the phrase: “52.488 Hybride … darunter 19.119 Plug-in-Hybride.” From the text for the month of July:
“Die alternativen Antriebsarten wiesen im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat teils dreistellige Zuwächse auf. Die Anzahl der Elektrofahrzeuge wuchs mit 16.798 Neufahrzeugen um +181,7 Prozent, ihr Anteil an den Neuzulassungen lag damit bei 5,3 Prozent. 52.488 Hybride bescherten einen Zuwachs von +143,5 Prozent, was einem Anteil von 16,7 Prozent entsprach, darunter 19.119 Plug-in-Hybride (+484,7 %) und einem Anteil von 6,1 Prozent.
https://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2020/Fahrzeugzulassungen/pm18_2020_n_07_20_pm_komplett.html?nn=2562684
You can also confirm this by downloading the spreadsheet with the data to see how it adds up.
Don’t get offended Tony.
People who buy EVs get really defensive when you point out how inferior they are to ICE vehicles… (limited range… many hours to refuel…. lack of refueling stations…. toxic batteries… horrific resale values…. costly battery replacements…)
And they get extremely uppity when you explain to them how EVs are powered for the most part by fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Actually they get rather angry when you confront them with this fact.
If you really want to push their buttons, you can mention that there is no such thing as renewable energy — well fossil fuels are renewable — however the time frame involves hundreds of millions of years…
Or just point them to Planet of the Humans — that documentary will explode their minds.
Willy Winky,
This is funny. It seems you don’t know. Toni is on the other side. Toni is a Tesla fan. That’s why he posted this here. I know that from another comment he made here that was essentially a duplicate but had some additional stuff in it, and I saw this one first and had already replied to it, so I deleted the second one.
His point was — and as I explained, he is totally wrong — that the EV data by other automakers include plug-in hybrids, and that therefore Tesla beat them all in terms of pure EVs. This is of course totally incorrect. The KBA includes plug-in hybrids with the hybrids, not EVs, which you can see by reading the text I quoted from KBA.
Right.
I am of course not a fan of Tesla — and I am not a fan of EVs.
Period.
I am not a fan of subsidizing EVs. What is the purpose of subsidizing them?
Most people will say ‘they save the environment’
That is not correct.
The HK government commissioned Bernstein to help them determine if subsidizing EVs would improve the notoriously polluted HK air.
Google: SCMP Electric shock – Tesla cars in Hong Kong more polluting than petrol models, report claims
In a nutshell, manufacturing an EV involves massive amounts of fossil fuel-generated energy. The enormous and heavy batteries are produced with loads and loads of energy.
Those EV charging stations sure do look bright and shiny – and clean — but if you tracked down the source you would find that fossil fuels or nuclear energy (over 75% of global electricity is produced using those sources).
As for solar and wind — rather than getting into that I will just re-recommend watching Planet of the Humans.
Neither of those sources is renewable – nor clean.
So I ask again – why are we subsidizing EVs?????
Google WSJ Tesla Sales Fall to Zero in Hong Kong After Tax Break Is Slashed
In a sane world EVs would be limited to golf courses.
Then of course there are all the drawbacks of ownership of one of these Welfare Mobiles….
But EVs do exist. Why? Because even though most people are about as smart as a yeast cell, they are not that dumb that they cannot see that oil is not eternal.
So the PTB has to offer them hope that there is some sort of future that does not involve scratching in the dirt with sticks looking for bugs for their next meal. People with children obviously want to avoid that future for their offspring.
So we get EVs — and solar power — and a messiah to boot in Elon Musk.
And the yeast cells do not panic — because they are not concerned about the sugar running out…. they believe aspartame is a superior substitute….
If anyone was wondering why Tesla – despite declining sales and endless billions burned … is worth more than a number of other profitable car manufacturers combined… well … there is your answer.
Willy Winky,
“I am not a fan of subsidizing EVs. What is the purpose of subsidizing them?”
I totally agree with you. There are lot of things I don’t want subsidized.
BTW, in the US, Tesla and GM buyers are no longer getting the federal subsidies (phased out). Some states may still have smaller subsidies for EVs.
It’s not just EV’s. Many people get offended by ANY nonsensical statement being passed off as wisdom.
I googled your “Electric Shock” article. Always read the comments, as it’s the closest thing we have to peer review in media. The study is crap.
Actually it’s not an article – it’s a documentary.
And it is called Planet of the Humans
Planet of the Humans is a 2019 American environmental documentary film written, directed, and produced by Jeff Gibbs. It is backed and promoted by Michael Moore,[3] who served as the executive producer.[4]
Moore released it on YouTube for free viewing on April 21, 2020, the eve of the 50th anniversary of the first Earth Day.
A conclusion of the film is that green energy cannot solve the problem of society’s expanding resource depletion without less consumption, which is by definition unsustainable given that the Earth is finite.
The film argues that renewable energy sources, including biomass energy, wind power, and solar energy, are not as renewable as they are portrayed to be.
I imagine that you will read that summary and stick your head into the sand and not watch it now.
Let’s face it – if you want to ‘save the planet’ you can start with not reproducing. Think of all the ‘stuff’ that would not be made if you refused to have kids!
By that measure people like me – with no children — are by far the greenest people on the planet.
Oh but of course… you will defend your decision to breed.. and you will make yourself feel better by putting up some solar panels or buying a Tesla …
Why do I sense that Don Draper is behind the message convincing people to buy EVs and solar panels — ‘continue to wreck the planet but eliminate any feelings of guilt by purchasing an EV or solar panel’
Tesla is actually doing incredibly well in Europe all things considered.
1. Tesla is a premium brand. The cheapest car it sells in Europe starts north of $40k. Just as it makes no sense to benchmark BMW against VW or Toyota for ICE cars, it really makes no sense to compare tesla to Renault.
2. The model 3 is the best selling EV in Europe through the end of 2q. It will be the best selling EV in Europe at the end of 3q. It’s funny how that always gets left out.
3. Tesla does not sell the model Y in Europe. The most popular cars in Europe and hatchbacks and small SUVs. That makes the model 3’s leadership even more remarkable. Tesla will almost certainly regain marketshare when model Y arrives in Europe.
4. Non European premium autp brands have historically done very poorly in Europe. Lexus sells like 20,000 Europe wide.
From my book, TESTOSTERONE PIT:
“The whole business boils down to numbers. Either you have them, or you don’t. There are no performance reviews. A job is a day-to-day affair of numbers. Move the goddamn iron, and everything else will follow: commissions, satisfied customers, job security even. But nothing happens until you move the goddamn iron.”
And in Europe, Tesla doesn’t have the numbers, and has trouble moving the iron. Simple as that.
Germany has sworn off nuclear power. If EV’s really catch on in a big way do they have the generating capacity to charge them? I know they like green power but solar has to be a joke with their climate.
They do as long as people charge them late at night at home. There is a HUGE amount of excess capacity in the middle of the night. The grid is built for peaks, and valleys are just a terrible waste of all this capital investment. Utilities would LOVE nothing more than being able to use that excess capacity in the middle of the night.
Google — Germany Building Record Number of Coal Fired Plants.
Wind does not always blow and the sun does not always shine – so Germany runs coal plants round the clock (because you cannot switch them on and off like a light) to compensate. It’s why Germans pay some of the highest electricity costs in the world.
“The two happiest days in a boat owner’s life: the day you buy the boat, and the day you sell the boat.”
With a Tesla (or any EV) it’s worse.
You are happy with it until you need to drive more than a few hundred km and realize that you have to charge it for hours (and pay to overnight in a hotel) — and you are even sadder when you decide to sell it and revert to the old reliable ICE vehicle (that you can refuel in 2 minutes), but see that the resale value has collapsed.
If you had a Tesla and there was a charging station, you could make that drive with a single 30 minute stop, just a little longer than you would stop for gas.
>>>> If I could charge and get 800km in 2 minutes I might consider an EV (but definitely not a Tesla – I’d buy something from a company with quality control…. perhaps a Porsche) Wake me up when that happens. Until then don’t waste my time with ‘if’
Now maybe Tesla doesn’t have a charging station there (yet) so feel free to keep driving your ICE. Maybe your specific driving patterns dont yet match any EV on the market.
>>>> Perhaps someone can dig up some stats on driving patterns of EV owners. I would be particularly interested to see if they own two cars — the other being an ICE car. Given the size of the United States I suspect most people take multiple trips per year that are well beyond the charge of any EV. The EV is the toy they use for short trips to the organic coffee shop to show off their green creds…. a rich man’s toy … or a delusional poor man’s mistake.
But if you want to bring up the environmental costs of producing electricity, I get to bring up the trillions we spend securing the middle east for its oil. So how many dead soldiers do we need to sacrifice for your petrol?
>>>>> There are environmental costs to burning petrol — EVs do not eliminate those costs. And as I have eloquently explained, EVs are inferior to ICE vehicles — so why buy them?
>>>>> As for soldiers dying in wars over oil — read your history — virtually every major war throughout history has been fought over RESOURCES. Contrary to what greenies believe, oil makes the world go round (money is simply a proxy for energy). TINA (there is no alternative)
As I have mentioned 75% of the world’s energy supply comes from fossil fuels and nuclear. Solar and wind are massively energy intensive (see Planet of the Humans) so essentially they too are fossil fuel energy. Biomass (see Planet of the Humans) involves burning trees….
End of the day, if the US does not impose its military and take these resources, the Chinese or the Russians will gladly send their citizens into the breach and take it.
I suggest you google The Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli…. you will then understand how the world works. Also try googling Jack Nicholson rant A Few Good Men…. a modern version of The Prince
Give Peace a Chance and Koombaya… are ridiculous songs…