Another Sign that a Major Rethink of the Size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet Is Gaining Momentum

by Wolf Richter • Nov 17, 2025 • 3 Comments

Warsh, on the shortlist for Fed Chair, advocates for more QT, a smaller balance sheet, and lower short-term rates, in sync with Bessent.

Construction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Powerplants, and Office Buildings: Boom at One End, Bust at the Other End

by Wolf Richter • Nov 17, 2025 • 26 Comments

But spending on factories dwarfs spending on data centers.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in October 2025

by Wolf Richter • Nov 16, 2025 • 61 Comments

Prices fell year-over-year in 22 of the 33 metros. In 9 of the 33, prices rose to new highs.

THANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! And if You Missed the Fall Reminder: Please Donate

by Wolf Richter • Nov 14, 2025 • 11 Comments

Your support keeps Wolf Street open to all, not hidden behind a paywall, to reach the largest audience possible.

Government Sold $694 Billion of Treasuries this Week, Debt Hits $38.2 Trillion, Treasury Yields Rise Further, Shift to T-Bills Begins

by Wolf Richter • Nov 14, 2025 • 143 Comments

Long-term Treasury yields under pressure, amid large auctions of notes and bonds, despite shift to T-bills.

Data Fog Engulfing October due to Government Shutdown May “Never” Be Fully Lifted

by Wolf Richter • Nov 13, 2025 • 73 Comments

Survey-based data doesn’t exist because the surveys were not conducted in October. But data that companies electronically submitted exists.

Inflation Rages in Streaming Services

by Wolf Richter • Nov 12, 2025 • 115 Comments

Consumers, despite their ultra-foul mood, are not pushing back with waves of cancellations that would keep a lid on streamflation.

A 50-Year Mortgage Does Nothing for “Affordability,” Is a Terrible Deal for Homeowners and a Superb Deal for Banks & Investors

by Wolf Richter • Nov 11, 2025 • 167 Comments

Monthly payment of a 50-year mortgage of $500,000 would be only $91 lower than of a 30-year mortgage, but homeowners would get crushed by nearly $1 million in interest.

How Americans Handled their Auto Loans & Leases in Q3 2025: Subprime & Prime Delinquency Rates, Balances, and Burden

by Wolf Richter • Nov 10, 2025 • 43 Comments

Loan balances remained flat for a year despite higher unit sales, an unusual situation. Two reasons: prices and cash deals.

Entire Treasury Yield Curve from 3 Months to 30 Years Has Risen since Fed’s Rate Cut. Mortgage Rates too. Bond Market Edgy about Inflation & Supply

by Wolf Richter • Nov 9, 2025 • 144 Comments

The 6-month Treasury yield sees Fed on hold in December. Cutting rates as inflation accelerates is a delicate operation that the bond market isn’t fond of.

Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q3 2025

by Wolf Richter • Nov 7, 2025 • 73 Comments

Banks are mostly off the hook this time; risks were shifted to taxpayers and investors.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in October, -$2.39 Trillion from Peak, to $6.57 Trillion, Standing Repo Facility Back to Zero

by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2025 • 57 Comments

The SRF did its job. Month-end repo market turmoil, exacerbated by effects of the government shutdown, has settled down.

CarMax Enters our Imploded Stocks. Used-Car Dealers Face Reckoning after Jacking Up Prices by 55% in 2 Years

by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2025 • 80 Comments

Consumers have had it with high prices. In addition, these dealers have company specific issues.

Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, and Bankruptcies of our (not so) Drunken Sailors in Q3 2025

by Wolf Richter • Nov 5, 2025 • 76 Comments

The long-defaulted federal student loans were pulled out of the forbearance closet.

Private-Sector Job Growth Lumbers Along after Getting Hammered by the 2024 Benchmark Adjustments in Sep & Aug

by Wolf Richter • Nov 5, 2025 • 44 Comments

ADP Employment Report: +42,000 Jobs in October; wages +4.5% for “Job Stayers” and +6.7% for “Job Changers.”

Repo Market Liquidity Pressures Made Worse by Government Shutdown, but the Fed’s SRF Did its Job and Went Back to Sleep

by Wolf Richter • Nov 4, 2025 • 42 Comments

After the debt ceiling, the shutdown: government checking account (TGA) sucks up $700 billion in four months.

US Government’s Net Cash from Tariffs Jumps to Record $32 Billion in October

by Wolf Richter • Nov 3, 2025 • 76 Comments

The Supreme Court could strike down a portion of the tariffs, but the Administration sees similar tariffs under different Acts. “You should assume they’re here to stay”: Bessent.

Who Takes the Losses on Office CRE? Here’s an Example: the Bankruptcy of Office Properties Income Trust

by Wolf Richter • Nov 3, 2025 • 28 Comments

Shareholders got wiped out, noteholders take losses and get the company, banks appear to be largely unscathed.

Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Fall 2025 Reminder

by Wolf Richter • Nov 2, 2025 • 25 Comments

Your generous support allows WOLF STREET to remain free and open to all, not hidden behind a paywall.

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Hits Record 11.8%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis. Multifamily Delinquencies Soar to 7.1%

by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2025 • 74 Comments

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans on office and multifamily properties got further bludgeoned in October.