Spike in Refis, Triggered by Small Dip in Mortgage Rates, Fizzled. Demand for Mortgages to Purchase Homes Still in Deepfreeze

by Wolf Richter • Oct 8, 2025 • 13 Comments

Mortgage rates are higher than before the rate cuts started over a year ago.

Bank of Japan Balance Sheet QT Accelerates: -$148 Billion in Q3, -$407 Billion fr. Peak. Will Sell ETFs, REITs. Sold all Bank Stocks

by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2025 • 35 Comments

Its holdings of commercial paper & corporate bonds are nearly gone. The BOJ is cleaning up its balance sheet.

Home Prices in the Largest Countries of Europe Range from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that Dropped back to 2010

by Wolf Richter • Oct 6, 2025 • 73 Comments

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal.

Jobs Report to Get Hit by 100,000 Federal Government “Deferred Resignations” on top of the Jobs Already Shed. But ICE Is Hiring

by Wolf Richter • Oct 4, 2025 • 71 Comments

Bringing federal job losses to over 200,000 since January. Excluding federal & state, nonfarm payrolls haven’t been all that bad.

It Took the Longest Time to Sell a Home since at Least 2016, if it Sold at all, in Many Markets

by Wolf Richter • Oct 3, 2025 • 53 Comments

Examples: California, Texas, Florida, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona. In other states, homes still sell faster than before Covid, such as New York and Georgia (barely).

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$15 Billion in September, -$2.38 Trillion from Peak, to $6.59 Trillion

by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2025 • 70 Comments

The Standing Repo Facility got a bit of use on Sept. 15 (corporate tax day) amid minor liquidity strains in the repo market.

Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Plunges to Lowest since 1994, as USD Exchange Rates Tank, Central Banks Diversify

by Wolf Richter • Oct 2, 2025 • 48 Comments

The rise of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.”

Tariff Cash Keeps Rolling In: Record $30 Billion in September

by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2025 • 101 Comments

Corporate profits, after exploding in the high-inflation era, fell this year. Tariffs are very difficult to pass on after the price spikes in 2020-2022.

ADP Employment Report: -32,000 Jobs in September after -43,000 Annual Adjustment to Benchmark ADP data to BLS Data

by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2025 • 66 Comments

Pre-benchmarking jobs: +11,000. Private-sector measures not immune to data mess. Trend shows “employers have been cautious with hiring.”

“AI Makes Past Hype Cycles Look Tame”: PitchBook on the Stunning Venture Capital Mania for AI

by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 120 Comments

At these valuations, “exit hurdles become exceptionally large.”

The Labor Market in New Era of Low Churn, Uneasy Calm, Government Job Losses, and Crackdown on Illegal Immigration

by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 20 Comments

Government job openings plunged 23% year-over-year. Federal government hires plunged 33% year-over-year.

The “Lock-in Effect” and Mortgage Rates: Update on Unwinding a Phenomenon that Wrecked the Housing Market

by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2025 • 127 Comments

This is going to take a long time to get worked out.

Pending Home Sales Rise from Near-Record Lows, Zigzag along those Lows, -43% from 2020, -30% from 2019: Charts Speak

by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2025 • 47 Comments

A bigger rise in March got more than wiped out by a drop in April. That’s how it goes with zigzagging month-to-month data.

Corporate Profits in Nonfinancial Industries Plunge by Most Ever in $, amid Massive Downward Revisions

by Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2025 • 93 Comments

But profits are still huge after the pandemic free-money spike, except in auto manufacturing where losses pile up. Financial industry profits hit new record.

Inflation Is in Services despite Powell’s Denials: PCE Price Index for Core Services Accelerated Further. Durable Goods Prices Fell for 2nd Month

by Wolf Richter • Sep 26, 2025 • 121 Comments

The 12-month overall PCE & core PCE price indices, which the Fed uses for its target, are worse than a year ago.

Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Crushed Further, Supply at 2016 Levels. Condo Sales Near Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Levels

by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2025 • 65 Comments

Price declines and increases vary dramatically in different markets.

What Slowdown? Q2 GDP Growth Revised Up to Hot Zone of 3.8%, Stronger Consumer Spending & Private Fixed Investment

by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2025 • 57 Comments

Government consumption and inventories were a bigger drag though. All adjusted for inflation.

Inventory of New Completed Single-Family Homes Jumps to Highest since 2009, but Sales of New Homes See Outlier Spike in the South, Prices Skid: Some Thoughts

by Wolf Richter • Sep 24, 2025 • 36 Comments

Homebuilders rant about the tough market.

The 14 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -24%) through August

by Wolf Richter • Sep 23, 2025 • 103 Comments

Oakland, Austin, New Orleans, Cape Coral, San Francisco, Birmingham, Washington DC, Fort Myers, Denver, Portland, Phoenix, Sarasota, Naples, Hayward.

Price Arbitrage (Buy Low, Sell High) Dominates the Use of Utility-Scale Battery Systems

by Wolf Richter • Sep 22, 2025 • 39 Comments

Utility-scale battery capacity tripled in two years. California and Texas are the giants.