Fed Discusses Balance Sheet “Normalization”: ON RRPs & MBS Go to Zero, Reserves Drop a Lot, Slower QT Reduces Risk of “Accidents,” SRF Calms Repo Market, Future QE without Increasing the Balance Sheet by Wolf Richter • Mar 2, 2024 • 186 Comments The Fed’s Waller and Logan lay out some basic principles.
ECB Balance Sheet QT: Down €2.0 Trillion from Peak, to €6.83 Trillion. The ECB Shed 48% of its Pandemic QE Assets by Wolf Richter • Feb 28, 2024 • 55 Comments A big milestone for Quantitative Tightening in the euro area.
PPI Inflation Spikes in Services and Finished Core Goods, Very Disconcerting by Wolf Richter • Feb 16, 2024 • 138 Comments Reheating services inflation isn’t a surprise. But the PPI for finished core goods saps hopes for goods “deflation” to hold down overall inflation.
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, January: Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow when he Sees the Spike in “Core Services” Inflation by Wolf Richter • Feb 13, 2024 • 291 Comments But that’s how inflation is, once out of the bottle: It serves up nasty surprises.
Even Banks in Asia-Pacific (APAC) on the Hook for US Office CRE: Fitch by Wolf Richter • Feb 12, 2024 • 64 Comments That’s what “spread far and wide” means. During the US CRE bubble, yield-chasers not just in the US but globally gorged on invincible US CRE.
Our Drunken Sailors’ Credit Card Balances, Burden, Delinquencies, and Available Credit by Wolf Richter • Feb 9, 2024 • 113 Comments Credit cards are the dominant payment method, from reimbursed business travel to ecommerce and bar tabs. And some people use them to borrow.
US Trade Deficit in 2023 Dropped 19%, as Goods Deficit with China Plunged 29%: Imports & Exports of Goods & Services by Wolf Richter • Feb 8, 2024 • 48 Comments The much improved (or rather less horrible?) trade deficit was one of the reasons GDP was much stronger than expected.
Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgage Balances, Delinquencies, and Foreclosures by Wolf Richter • Feb 7, 2024 • 102 Comments When will it get messy for our Drunken Sailors? Not now.
Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Give Up 55% of Pandemic Spike: Historic Plunge after Crazy Spike by Wolf Richter • Feb 7, 2024 • 72 Comments But the plunge in retail prices of used cars and trucks hasn’t progressed nearly as much.
Auto Loan Balances, Subprime, Delinquencies, and Income: Who Are those Drunken Sailors? by Wolf Richter • Feb 6, 2024 • 98 Comments Subprime doesn’t mean “low income.” It means “bad credit” – and some is high income. And subprime loans are coming home to roost.