Housing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment at Mortgage Lenders: They Shed Jobs Again, 38% Gone by Wolf Richter • May 12, 2025 • 69 Comments Nonbank mortgage lenders and loan brokers react quickly to demand, which has collapsed.
How the Debt Ceiling Is Now Pouring Liquidity into Financial Markets, only to Suck it Back Out Very Fast Later this Year by Wolf Richter • May 11, 2025 • 100 Comments Last time, $840 billion got sucked out in 5 months, all from excess cash in ON RRPs. But after $2.26 trillion of QT, ON RRPs are nearly gone.
10-year Treasury Yield Back at 4.39%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage-Rate Spread Remains Historically Wide by Wolf Richter • May 9, 2025 • 73 Comments Despite the rumors during bond turmoil, foreigners kept buying Treasuries and the “basis trade” didn’t blow, but the “swap spread trade” made a mess.
Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2025 Reminder by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 31 Comments Your generous support has kept WOLF STREET free and open to all, and not behind a paywall. Thank you!!
Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 101 Comments Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
I’ve Been Screaming about Rising Used-Vehicle Prices since Aug 2024 (and No One Paid Attention) but Suddenly It’s the Tariffs? by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 75 Comments The issue has been tight used-vehicle inventory due to reduced influx of 2021/2022 model years after the new-vehicle shortages at the time.
Fully in Wait-and-See Mode, Fed Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Higher Uncertainty, Higher Inflation, and Higher Unemployment by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 98 Comments QT Continues at the slower pace announced in March.
After CRE Office Market Repriced at 70% Off in San Francisco, Sales Revive. Leasing Jumps amid 35% Vacancy Rates and 21% Drop in Asking Rents by Wolf Richter • May 6, 2025 • 40 Comments If left alone, markets are good at sorting out a tough situation like this. The housing market could learn a lesson.
NY Fed’s “Multivariate Core Trend” Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Worst in Over a Year, Predicts Acceleration of PCE Price Index by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2025 • 93 Comments Driven largely by non-housing services. Just in time for the Fed meeting.
California Inventory of Homes for Sale Suddenly Piles Up: +51% Year-over-Year, to Highest April in Years by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2025 • 87 Comments Active listings in San Diego +70% yoy, Los Angeles +50%, San Jose & Silicon Valley +67%; San Francisco metro +43% (highest April since at least 2016)
