Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, February: Inflation Saga far from Over, Core CPI & Core Services in Ominous 6-Month Trend by Wolf Richter • Mar 12, 2024 • 236 Comments Core services CPI — 61% of total CPI and infamous for historic head fakes — is approaching 6% annualized six-month average.
There’s a “New Upside Risk” in Town: “Pent-up Exuberance” – Fed’s Bostic by Wolf Richter • Mar 5, 2024 • 201 Comments If it’s unleashed at the “first hint” of a rate cut, it’ll “create upward pressure on prices.” But it may be too late, it has been unleashed by rate-cut mania.
Worst Monthly Spike of “Core Services” PCE Inflation in 22 Years, and Not Just Housing: Powell’s Gonna Have Another Cow by Wolf Richter • Feb 29, 2024 • 295 Comments Core services inflation dished up bad head fakes last time we had this mess in 1966-1982. Mention of a rate hike crops up in a Fed speech.
Higher for Longer Inflation & Interest Rates Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings? Waiting for the 2-Year Treasury Yield to Overshoot by Wolf Richter • Feb 18, 2024 • 214 Comments Four decades of history say it’s not over until the 2-year yield overshoots the EFFR. It has undershot for a year, and inflation is taking off again.
PPI Inflation Spikes in Services and Finished Core Goods, Very Disconcerting by Wolf Richter • Feb 16, 2024 • 138 Comments Reheating services inflation isn’t a surprise. But the PPI for finished core goods saps hopes for goods “deflation” to hold down overall inflation.
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, January: Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow when he Sees the Spike in “Core Services” Inflation by Wolf Richter • Feb 13, 2024 • 291 Comments But that’s how inflation is, once out of the bottle: It serves up nasty surprises.
Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Give Up 55% of Pandemic Spike: Historic Plunge after Crazy Spike by Wolf Richter • Feb 7, 2024 • 72 Comments But the plunge in retail prices of used cars and trucks hasn’t progressed nearly as much.
Great to Have a Good Job Market with Surging Wages, but Rate-Cut Mania Takes a Hit. And We Fret about Inflation Reheating by Wolf Richter • Feb 2, 2024 • 163 Comments It’s not just the top 10% or whatever who got the wage increases.
On the Surface, PCE Inflation Is Encouraging, But Beneath it, Core Services Accelerated, Housing Stuck at 5.7% for Six Months by Wolf Richter • Jan 26, 2024 • 106 Comments And a look back at the head-fakes core services inflation dished up last time with this type of inflation.
Inflation in Canada Refuses to Cooperate with Rate-Cut Bets by Wolf Richter • Jan 16, 2024 • 111 Comments Bank of Canada’s two preferred measures of underlying inflation accelerated, tripping up widespread expectations of cooling.
