Economy Re-Accelerates in Q2. Our Drunken Sailors Splurge on Durable Goods, Investment Jumps, Federal Gov Undoes Blip by Wolf Richter • Jul 25, 2024 • 67 Comments Our Drunken Sailors are back at it, but in moderation, so to speak, their feathers largely unruffled by interest rates.
Our Drunken Sailors Splurge on Services, Fixed Investment Surges. But Much-Worse Imports Drag Bigly on GDP. And there’s a Blip in Government Spending by Wolf Richter • Apr 25, 2024 • 113 Comments Re-accelerating inflation in Q1 hit “real” GDP growth. “Current-dollar” GDP growth only a hair slower than in Q4.
How the Huge Wave of Immigrants into the US in 2022 and 2023 Impacts the Employment Data of the BLS Household Survey by Wolf Richter • Apr 3, 2024 • 112 Comments The BLS uses the Census Bureau’s understated population estimates that ignore the surge of immigrants. But the CBO’s estimates pick them up.
The Year of the Recession that Didn’t Come: Our Drunken Sailors Partied & Spent, GDP Jumped by Wolf Richter • Jan 25, 2024 • 100 Comments All major categories of spending and investment pulled in the same direction.
“Leading Economic Index” Predicts Recession for Early 2024, after Having Predicted a Recession for Late 2022, Early 2023, Mid-2023, and Late 2023 by Wolf Richter • Nov 20, 2023 • 157 Comments And there’s Still No Recession!
U.S. Factory Construction in a Historic Spike, after Years of Going Nowhere (Amazing, but Can Something Like this Last?) by Wolf Richter • Nov 4, 2023 • 128 Comments And the factory construction announcements continue.
Our Drunken Sailors – Consumers, Governments, Businesses – Have Blast, GDP Spikes in Q3, Powell Seen Tearing out his Hair by Wolf Richter • Oct 26, 2023 • 189 Comments The much-awaited and hoped-for slowdown in the second half turned into a drunken party in Q3.
Businesses, Governments Join the Drunken Sailors. Consumers Still in Party-Mode: Tough to See a Slowdown in this Scenario by Wolf Richter • Jul 27, 2023 • 125 Comments What’s easier to see in this scenario is more persistent inflation.
Waiting for the Promised Recession: Economic Growth even Stronger than Feared, Treasury Yields Spike by Wolf Richter • Jun 29, 2023 • 218 Comments The Fed has jacked up interest rates to over 5% to slow down this circus, and instead we’re getting accelerated growth.
Consumers, Governments Spent like Drunken Sailors in Q1. Private Investment Plunge & Inventory Change Dogged GDP by Wolf Richter • Apr 27, 2023 • 71 Comments Americans came out of their funk they’d been in late last year. They’re 70% of GDP. They blew money left and right; spending on durable goods spiked!
