Honey, the Dollar’s Collapsing Again: USD against Yen, Euro, Peso, Other Currencies amid Inflation, Rate Hikes, and QT (or Lack Thereof) by Wolf Richter • Jul 14, 2023 • 164 Comments In other words, after a spike, the dollar dropped back to the higher end of the normal 20-year range. But the yen is a sloppy mess.
The Fed’s Liabilities: QT Pushed Down Reserves & RRPs by $865 Billion. TGA Gets Refilled. Currency in Circulation Hits Record by Wolf Richter • Jul 14, 2023 • 179 Comments The flow of cash under QT and government deficits.
Companies Now Hiring Faster than Laying Off: A Favorite Recession Indicator Has Now Backtracked for 3 Months by Wolf Richter • Jul 13, 2023 • 123 Comments But the layoff announcements in the media scared workers into surrendering some of their newly found power.
Core Services CPI Cools to Still Red-Hot 6.2%, Core CPI to 4.8%. Plunge in Energy Prices Pulls Down Overall CPI to 3.0%. Food Prices Stabilize at Very High Levels by Wolf Richter • Jul 12, 2023 • 224 Comments We already know the factors that will make this much tougher going forward.
Third Wave of Hotel CRE Defaults Has Started, Triggered by CMBS Maturities and Variable-Rate Mortgages by Wolf Richter • Jul 11, 2023 • 121 Comments CMBS holders are on the hook, not banks. Investors in hotel REITs have gotten totally crushed.
End of Easy Money: Financial Conditions Loosen Again for Junk-Rated Companies. But Some that Long Teetered Finally Go Over the Bankruptcy Cliff by Wolf Richter • Jul 10, 2023 • 119 Comments Tightening is a slow process, and there is still a flood of excess liquidity chasing after yield.
Treasury Market Comes Out of Denial, Grapples with “Higher-for-Longer,” QT, Flood of New Issuance. Long-Term Yields Jump by Wolf Richter • Jul 8, 2023 • 212 Comments Denial works great until it doesn’t.
The Long View of Job Growth by Industry: Some Gained Jobs; at Others, Jobs Got Crushed by Wolf Richter • Jul 7, 2023 • 70 Comments To shed some additional light on the jobs report.
Landing Still Cancelled: Labor Market Cruises through Updrafts and Air Pockets by Wolf Richter • Jul 7, 2023 • 131 Comments But all the breathless layoff-hype in the media scared workers and tamped down on wage growth.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops $667 Billion fr. Peak to $8.3 Trillion, Below Aug 2021, as QT Continues, Bank Panic Support Unwinds by Wolf Richter • Jul 6, 2023 • 145 Comments The Fed has now shed 20.5% of Treasury securities it had bought during pandemic QE.
