Wolf Richter

US Stocks Blind To Crashing Earnings Estimates (For Now)

Corporate revenues have been crummy all year, and earnings estimates for Q3 have come crashing down. A year ago, they were still expected to grow 15.9%, a sign of blind optimism. By Friday, they’d plunged to 4.7%. During that time, the S&P 500 soared 16.8% and the NASDAQ 19.6%. The Fed’s greatest accomplishment. But there is a corollary.

“A difficult second half”: Fabulous Excuses By Clothing Retailers As Sales Fall Apart

Men’s Warehouse joined the crowd of revenue-challenged retailers when it reported results and cut guidance. Revenue fell, profit plunged. As with its peers that had already reported, it’s not so much that sales were crummy –  gosh, they were – but that the excuses they came up with to keep their stocks from crashing were even crummier.

BofA-Merrill: “When Excess Liquidity Is Removed, It Will Get ‘CRASHy’”

With Q3 GDP growth tracking 1.6%, Wall Street strategists, whose bullishness has been deafening despite realities on the ground, are starting to hedge their bets with some unusually candid analyses. Seeing overvalued assets everywhere, they’re struggling to point at solutions, other than a crash. And they predict a sour future for stocks and bonds.

Housing Bubble In Full Bloom, Zany Price Increases, And Now A Sudden Slowdown

Dizzying home-price increases fused with pandemic hype and trillions from the Fed into a self-propagating force. It’s now accepted that housing will recover all the way to where it was in 2006, a sign the Fed has done its job, that it cured the ill that has dogged this economy for so long. Prices of 2006 are no longer “the peak of the housing bubble” but a goal.

Debt Zombie Verizon

Verizon will unleash a tsunami of money on Wall Street. To pay for its $130 billion acquisition of Vodafone’s share of Verizon Wireless, it will print $60 billion of its own inflated stock. It will borrow the rest – much of it via the largest bond sale in history, though it’s drowning in debt. Now that sale is slamming the already deflating bond bubble.

Three years in the hoosegow: China Tightens Stranglehold On “New Media”

“Seize the ground of new media,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said elegantly when he told state-owned media to get on the ball. So, effective today, the next chapter in seizing the ground of “new media” is this: people found by the Chinese judicial machinery to have posted libelous language online can expect three years in the hoosegow. Conditions apply.

Japan’s Frantic Redo Of An Artificial Boom Followed By A Bust

So the Japanese economy is booming. GDP growth in the April-June quarter was revised up to 3.8%, driven by higher big-ticket spending and government outlays. The January-March quarter was revised up to 4.1%. Three quarters in a row of growth, fed by something we’ve seen before. In 1996. And it ended in tears.

“We Don’t Feel Any Impact Of Abenomics Here”

For Japan’s megabanks, lending has rebounded. But instead of funding industrial projects in Japan, they’re funding acquisitions overseas and highfalutin real-estate speculation in Tokyo. They wrote up stock holdings and extracted fees from frenzied trading. Profits surged. They’re the prime beneficiaries of Abenomics. But smaller banks are not so lucky.

Jobs Don’t Keep Up With Population Growth, But Unemployment Rate Drops Elegantly, Keeps Intact The Pretext For Fed “Taper”

When the Fed said it wanted to print more money in order to create jobs, it’s this graph that came to mind. And when it now says that it wants to taper that process because it already created enough jobs, it’s also this graph that comes to mind. Job creation and economic growth were just a pretext – a pretext that has been very crummy.

Bonds Bleed: Largest Bubble In History Unwinds, But The “Great Rotation” Into Stocks Is Deceptive Wall Street Hype

The bond-fund massacre is spectacular. Antsy investors yanked $7.7 billion in August out of the world’s largest bond fund, Pimco’s Total Return Fund. In July, they’d yanked out $7.5 billion, in June $14.5 billion. From May 1 through August 31, the fund’s assets shriveled 14%. Other bond funds got hit too. And September is shaping up to be even worse.