Treasury Yield Curve Steepens, as Long-Term Yields Coddle Up to 5% while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, Not Seeing Any Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates Rise to 7.24% by Wolf Richter • Jan 11, 2025 • 168 Comments 30-year Treasury bonds sold at auction on Friday at highest yield in at least 16 years despite Fed’s 100 basis points in rate cuts.
This Strength of the Labor Market & Economy, amid Accelerating Inflation, Puts the Fed Back into Wait-and-See Mode by Wolf Richter • Jan 10, 2025 • 96 Comments Huge upward adjustment of total employment coming in February when the BLS incorporates the wave of immigrants into the data.
“Bond Market Rout” in the UK (like in the US) Only Pushes the 10-Year Yield into Low End of Old Normal after Many Years of Interest Rate Repression by Wolf Richter • Jan 9, 2025 • 126 Comments A normal cost of capital is a form of much-needed discipline for governments and investors, after years of free money turned their brains to mush.
Why Used-Vehicle Prices May Put Upward Pressure on CPI, after Having Been a Powerful Contributor to Cooling Inflation by Wolf Richter • Jan 8, 2025 • 63 Comments The new-vehicle shortages of 2021-2022 now mean lower supply to the used-vehicle market, amid solid demand.
Labor Market Dynamics Retighten, Job Openings Jump Again. Fed Faces Scenario of Solid Job Market, Re-accelerating Inflation by Wolf Richter • Jan 7, 2025 • 113 Comments In light of this scenario, the Fed has been backpedaling on rate-cut expectations for two months.
Bank of Japan Balance Sheet: QT Takes Off, Assets Drop to Lowest in 15 Months by Wolf Richter • Jan 7, 2025 • 36 Comments Too little too late to help the yen that got mauled by 10 years of rampant QE.
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Hits 30-Year Low as Central Banks Pile on Other Currencies & Gold by Wolf Richter • Jan 5, 2025 • 109 Comments If the rate of decline over the past 10 years continues, the dollar’s share will sink below 50% by 2034.
Ugly Charts of US Auto Sales, 2024: Stellantis Spirals into Catastrophe, GM, Toyota, Ford, Honda Rise but far Below Peaks. Hyundai-Kia Sets Record. EV Sales +10% despite Tesla’s Dip by Wolf Richter • Jan 3, 2025 • 249 Comments New Vehicle sales rise but still below 1986. GM, Ford, Hyundai-Kia book huge EV-sales gains.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$43 Billion in December, -$2.11 Trillion from Peak, to $6.85 Trillion. Bank-Panic BTFP Nearly Gone by Wolf Richter • Jan 2, 2025 • 79 Comments Quantitative Tightening shed 44% of Pandemic-QE assets. Fed’s share of the ballooning US national debt dropped to the lowest since 2019.
What Should Tesla’s Stock Be Worth? Automaker, Stagnating Vehicle Sales like GM & Ford, Getting Overtaken by Competitors, Losing Share in the Booming EV Market? by Wolf Richter • Jan 2, 2025 • 145 Comments Tesla is now just another mid-size automaker amid EV competition that is eating its lunch.
