Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in April, -$2.26 Trillion from Peak, to $6.71 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020 by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2025 • 33 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 25.2% of total assets. The Assets-to-GDP ratio declined to 22.4%, first seen in 2013.
Now the Multifamily CMBS Delinquency Rate Begins to Spike, while Office Delinquencies Re-Spike to Financial Crisis Peak by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2025 • 49 Comments The CRE meltdown just doesn’t let up.
Inflation Is in the Revisions? What Stands Out Once Again in the PCE Price Index? Sharp Up-Revisions of Prior Month’s Inflation by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2025 • 66 Comments Up-revisions pushed the 12-month core PCE price index for February to +3.0%, and the 6-month to +3.4%, worst since July 2023. But March was benign?
GDP Whacked by Massive Spike in Imports on Frontrunning of Tariffs. Consumer Spending Grew, Business Investment Soared by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2025 • 81 Comments “Final sales to private domestic purchasers” jumped by 3.0%, on strength in the private economy of businesses and consumers.
Despite All Moaning and Groaning: Layoffs & Discharges Plunge, Hires and Voluntary Quits Rise, Driven by Private Sector Strength by Wolf Richter • Apr 29, 2025 • 123 Comments The labor market started regaining momentum in the fall of 2024, and it continued through March.
How Gold Imports Blew up Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The Old Model is Dead, Long Live the “New GDPNow Model” Starting Apr 30 by Wolf Richter • Apr 28, 2025 • 66 Comments The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow could be all over the place, but nothing compares to how gold imports blew it up this time.
10-Year Treasury Yield Re-Dips Below EFFR, Yield Curve Sags Deeply in the Middle, Dollar Bounces Back into 3-Year Range by Wolf Richter • Apr 26, 2025 • 96 Comments Turns out, demand from foreigners for Treasury securities at the auctions was just fine.
Office Vacancy Rate in the US Worsens to Record 22.6% in Q1 amid Federal Government Lease Terminations by Wolf Richter • Apr 25, 2025 • 41 Comments But it may take a while before these federal lease terminations work their way into CRE delinquency rates.
Sales of Existing Homes Drop to Worst March since 2009. West, South, Midwest, Northeast All Get Crushed. Supply Surges to Highest since 2016 by Wolf Richter • Apr 24, 2025 • 113 Comments The 3-year 50% price explosion caused epic demand destruction. Prices way too high. But mortgage rates back in the historically normal range above 6%.
Inventory of New Houses for Sale Stuck at Highest Level since 2007, Driven by Gluts in the South & West. Prices Fall, Incentives Soar, Sales Rise by Wolf Richter • Apr 23, 2025 • 70 Comments Homebuilders get aggressive to sell the inventory, but prices are still far too high.
