The QT show started less than a year ago. German home prices -11%, ECB assets -19%.
“Neutral rate” creeping higher? Oh dearie! Bloodbath at the long end.
New listings rose in August, when they normally fall in August, an interesting break in the seasonal pattern.
Our drunken sailors “hate inflation, hate it,” and are in a foul mood, but are in good shape and keep spending.
The shocker was the infamous “dot plot”: Higher for even longer, ending the year 2024 at 5.25%.
While fewer and fewer Americans head to the malls.
Inflation dished up another nasty surprise. Other costs jumped too. Gasoline didn’t help. This was a broad-based mess.
Trillions whooshing by so fast they’re hard to see.
Not that the losses matter to the Fed, but they matter to the Budget Deficit.
QT’s impact on the Fed’s liabilities, and massive movements between them.
The Home Price Benchmark Index is down 13% from peak in March 2022. The Canadian housing market is in a category of its own, in terms of craziness.
They spent a record amount more at bars & restaurants than at food & beverage stores, which tells us something about our drunken sailors.
Month-to-month CPI spikes, core CPI and core services CPI accelerate, despite ongoing massive health insurance adjustment.
Detroit automakers hugely overstocked, ready for a strike.
Further pressuring long-term Treasury yields, amid fears of bad inflation “surprises.” Share buybacks a lot more expensive, but no problem either.
Appraisers have not yet caught on to it either.
How do you lose 47% on 30-year Treasuries? Buy at auction in Aug 2020. Or carry them at purchase price and hide the “unrealized loss” in the footnotes.
It shed 24% of the Treasury securities it had added during pandemic QE, footprint in ballooning Treasury market shrinks.
There will be a recession, there’s always a recession eventually. But we’ll just have to keep watching for it.
The BoC already shed 50% of its QE assets, and the shedding continues.