Used Car & Truck Prices Heading Higher on Tight Supply, Strong Demand, after U-Turn in mid-2024 from Historic Plunge. Used EV Prices Jump

by Wolf Richter • Feb 8, 2025 • 12 Comments

Already putting pressure on CPI inflation. Now comes tax-refund season.

Huge Upward Adjustment to Employment & Labor Force as Wave of Immigrants is Finally Included, Unemployment Drops, Wage Growth Accelerates: The Annual Revisions Are Here

by Wolf Richter • Feb 7, 2025 • 47 Comments

The Fed, after complaining about missing immigrants in labor market data, now has further support for its pivot to wait-and-see.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$42 Billion in January, -$2.15 Trillion from Peak, to $6.81 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020. Bye-Bye BTFP

by Wolf Richter • Feb 6, 2025 • 52 Comments

Quantitative Tightening has shed 45% of Pandemic-QE. Bank liquidity facilities at or near zero.

The Fed’s QT Could Go on for a Lot Longer: The Tools Are in Place, incl. the Revived Standing Repo Facility

by Wolf Richter • Feb 6, 2025 • 41 Comments

QT has drained ON RRPs to their normal level of near-zero, while QT hasn’t even touched reserve balances yet.

Trade Deficit in Goods Worsens to All-Time Worst in 2024, Small Surplus in Services Rises, Overall Trade Deficit Worsens by 17%

by Wolf Richter • Feb 5, 2025 • 133 Comments

Goods deficits & Corporate America: Vietnam jumps to #3 on transshipments from China to dodge tariffs. Tiny Ireland jumps to #4 on trade invoicing to dodge US corporate income taxes.

Underlying Job Market Dynamics Retighten as Fed Moves any Rate Cuts into Distance amid Accelerating Inflation

by Wolf Richter • Feb 4, 2025 • 113 Comments

The low point was in September, which had spooked the Fed. But that’s over.

Trump Agrees with Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See after the Fed Bows to Trump on Everything Else to Keep Monetary Policy Independent

by Wolf Richter • Feb 3, 2025 • 161 Comments

We’ll see how long Trump’s side of this mutual understanding lasts.

Tesla Sales Got Crushed in Q4 in California, its Largest US Market. Non-Tesla EV Sales Jumped to a Record. ICE Vehicle Sales Dipped

by Wolf Richter • Feb 3, 2025 • 74 Comments

Since 2016, ICE vehicle sales plunged 31%, while EV sales soared 10-fold.

What Trump’s Tariffs Did Last Time (2018-2019): No Impact on Inflation, Doubled Receipts from Customs Duties, and Hit Stocks

by Wolf Richter • Feb 3, 2025 • 174 Comments

I watched this stuff last time, amazed by the lack of inflation. Sure, “This time it’s different,” but those are the four most costly words on Wall Street.

Inflation Festers in Core Services, No Progress in 12 Months. PCE Price Index Accelerates for 3rd Month: Justifies Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See

by Wolf Richter • Jan 31, 2025 • 262 Comments

In a broader sense, there has been no progress at all on inflation in eight months.

Buyers’ Strike Continues: Pending Home Sales Drop Again while Inventories of New & Existing Homes Balloon, Especially in the South & West

by Wolf Richter • Jan 30, 2025 • 81 Comments

Prices are still way too high, that’s the problem in the housing market, but they’ve been dropping substantially in some cities.

Our Drunken Sailors Partied Massively in Q4, Propped Up GDP Growth. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsened to 121.8%

by Wolf Richter • Jan 30, 2025 • 59 Comments

Biggest consumer spending surge in nearly two years overpowered the drop in private domestic investment and change in private inventories.

Powell: In “No Hurry” to Cut, Need to See “Further Progress” on Inflation, No Timeline to End QT (Not Even Close)

by Wolf Richter • Jan 29, 2025 • 94 Comments

“Companies figured out they do like to raise prices. But we also hear a lot from companies these days that consumers have really had it with price increases.”

Fed Pivots to Wait-and-See, Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Restarts Inflation Worries. QT Continues.

by Wolf Richter • Jan 29, 2025 • 97 Comments

And labor market conditions are no longer easing. The reasons for rate cuts — dropping inflation, weakening labor market — vanished. Pretty hawkish.

Glut of New Houses for Sale in the South Is Bigger Even than during the Housing Bust. The Glut in the West Gets Close

by Wolf Richter • Jan 28, 2025 • 122 Comments

Prices Are Still Way too High. Something has to give.

Inventory of New Completed Single-Family Houses for Sale Spikes to Highest since 2007. Builders Prop Up Sales with Lower Prices, Bigger Incentives, Smaller Houses

by Wolf Richter • Jan 27, 2025 • 122 Comments

Sales of new houses in 2024 were decent, while massive demand destruction crushed sales of existing houses because prices are way too high.

DOGE Seeks to Shed Vast Amounts of Government Office Space. Here’s How Much the Government Leases, and Where, and What Leases it Can Shed During Trump’s Term

by Wolf Richter • Jan 25, 2025 • 155 Comments

For CRE, the motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. Now it’s 2025, and here comes the government’s office space.

Sales of Existing Homes Finally Begin to Thaw a Little, amid Highest Supply for December since 2018

by Wolf Richter • Jan 24, 2025 • 96 Comments

2024 was the worst year since 1995 for sales because prices are too high after the 50% spike in 2019-2022.

Collapse of the Solar Stocks

by Wolf Richter • Jan 23, 2025 • 133 Comments

This is about stock market craziness, not about solar power.

Subprime, Prime, and Overall Auto-Loan Delinquency Rates: Why this Surge in “Subprime” Delinquencies when “Prime” Is Pristine?

by Wolf Richter • Jan 22, 2025 • 55 Comments

We’re in the 4th cycle of the subprime profit motive after auto-loan securitizations became a thing in the early 1990s.